Hungary’s three most reliable pollsters are all pointing to a “huge lead” for Magyar’s Tisza party, says election specialist Róbert László at Budapest think tank Political Capital. Most analysts had assumed Fidesz would reduce that lead as the election drew closer, but he says that has not happened.
Magyar has told voters they need not just an absolute majority of 100 seats in the 199-seat parliament, but a two-thirds super-majority, to wind back many of the constitutional changes that Fidesz made to the independence of the judiciary, ownership of the media, and many other walks of life. Hungary is repeatedly at the bottom of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.
“The most likely scenario is that Tisza will have a comfortable, absolute majority, but not a two-thirds majority. But you can’t exclude a two-thirds majority either,” says László.
In recent days, there have been figures from the police, military and business who have all spoken out against Fidesz, and László believes this is a sign that the public mood has turned against Orbán.