The WTA Mutua Madrid Open gets underway at the Caja Mágica, and the first clay WTA 1000 of the season never disappoints for storylines. Day 1 features a Colombian clay specialist looking to build on a strong season, an 18-year-old wild card getting a crash course in WTA level, and one of the most compelling comeback stories on the women’s tour stepping out in front of a home crowd. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who will advance?

WTA Madrid Day 1 Predictions
Anastasia Zakharova vs Camila Osorio

Head-to-Head: First meeting

Zakharova has had a solid season on hard courts, posting a 15-9 record in 2026, but clay is a different proposition entirely. Osorio, on the other hand, is right at home on the surface. The Colombian won a title in January and has notched notable wins over some seasoned competitors earlier this season, and her patient, high-bouncing baseline game is built for these conditions. Zakharova is a capable ball-striker but has not shown enough on clay to suggest she can match Osorio’s comfort and consistency here. The Colombian’s movement and her ability to redirect pace should prove decisive.
Prediction: Osorio in 2

Tatjana Maria vs Laura Samson

Head-to-Head: First meeting

This match also has a significant age gap–Maria, 38, had already been playing professional tournaments for seven years when wild card Laura Samson, 18, was born in 2008. But age is not the story here; form is. Maria reached the Rouen semifinals last week without dropping a set across three matches, beating Elsa Jacquemot, Dominika Salkova, and Iryna Shymanovich before losing to Marta Kostyuk. It was her first genuinely positive showing of the season, and she arrives in Madrid with her confidence visibly restored. Samson is a promising young Czech player with good clay instincts at ITF level, but this is a significant step up. Maria’s experience, her signature slice and variety, and the momentum she carries from Rouen should be enough to see her through.
Prediction: Maria in 2

Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher

Head-to-Head: Badosa 1–0 Grabher

The occasion will matter as much as the tennis here. Badosa enters Madrid ranked No. 196 and needing a wild card to play at her own home event–a painful circumstance for a former World No. 2. She has lost three consecutive matches on clay, though she has spoken openly about gradual physical improvement, describing her recent matches as competitive but emotionally demanding. Grabher, meanwhile, has lost six of her last seven matches and arrives with no form behind her. Neither player is at their peak, but Badosa’s clay pedigree and the lift of a home crowd give her the edge. Grabher has not given enough evidence this season to suggest she can capitalize on Badosa’s current struggles.
Prediction: Badosa in 3

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports