This could turn the capital’s boroughs into a “patchwork quilt” run by a mixture of established and insurgent parties, sometimes in coalition with each other, while Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan continues to preside over City Hall until 2028.
Reform leader Nigel Farage said in December that his party had a “very real chance” of winning in “half a dozen” London boroughs. The YouGov model projects Reform to win three — although in two further councils, Bexley and Hillingdon, it is predicted to be the second-largest party behind the Conservatives.
In 2022 Labour won control of 21 councils and the Conservatives won control of five.
The poll projects Labour will win the highest vote share on 15 councils, the Conservatives on five and the Liberal Democrats on four, though some of these results are very narrow.
Of the 15 areas where Labour is predicted to be the largest party, the Green Party would be in second place in 12. Half of those — Brent, Ealing, Enfield, Haringey, Hounslow and Newham — are rated as “very close” or “super close.”
The poll tips the Conservative Party to remain the largest party in Bexley, Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea, and to knock Labour off the top spot in Barnet, but Reform is posing difficulties for the Tories too. Meanwhile the poll predicts that the Conservatives will not win back their prized councils of Westminster or Wandsworth, in which Labour is projected to remain the largest party — though both areas are rated as “fairly close.”
YouGov interviewed 4,548 people between March 27 and April 21, of which 1,520 were included in the final model.