“But if this continues for a couple of more weeks, it won’t be a matter of price; it will be a matter of supply,” he said.
Bad: Partial reopening, uneven supply
The most likely outcome, according to many experts, is a partial resolution of the conflict by early summer, with shipping resuming in fits and starts.
In such a scenario, jet fuel prices would remain high and supply would be uncertain, meaning “weak-performing flights [could be] cancelled, and some airports [could face] periodic fuel constraints,” Deleau wrote in an analysis.
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol speaks at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue conference in Berlin on April 22, 2026. | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images
Long-haul leisure flights and less popular regional routes would most likely be first on the chopping bloc, the document said.
Because of high ticket prices, “people are starting to think about driving to their holidays or … the staycation might be back,” said Andrew Charlton, managing director of the Aviation Advocacy consultancy.
Under such a scenario, he said airlines may cut more short regional flights, but more profitable longer routes served by fewer airlines would likely be safe.