We have another fascinating day of tennis in Madrid in store, as Day 4 brings the conclusion of the second round of the event. Despite the withdrawal of many stars heading into the tournament, there is no shortage of exciting clashes, all of which we here at LWOT will be predicting. But who do you think will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Ugo Humbert vs Terence Atmane
Head-to-head: Atmane 1-0 Humbert
In this all-lefty French clash, the match is likely to come down to fine margins, as both players are better suited to faster surfaces and rely heavily on their serve and forehand to do damage. Although Ugo Humbert is the more experienced player, his discomfort on clay has been evident, which could open the door for Terence Atmane. After a clinical first-round performance, this looks like a strong opportunity for Atmane to pull off an upset.
Prediction: Atmane in 3
Denis Shapovalov vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Head-to-head: First meeting
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, a 2025 Next Gen ATP Finals participant, is more comfortable on faster, lower-bouncing surfaces, but his aggressive approach, especially off the forehand, should still make this competitive. On paper, Denis Shapovalov’s experience and lefty angles give him the edge, but his tendency for inconsistency can lead to costly errors. Even if that happens, it is unlikely to persist long enough to cost him this match.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Martin Damm Jr. vs Jakub Mensik
Head-to-head: First meeting
Unlike a typical clay-court contest, this match could be heavily influenced by serve, particularly in Madrid’s high-altitude conditions. Martin Damm Jr. has impressed in qualifying with his aggressive play, averaging a high number of aces despite some double faults. Jakub Mensik, however, enters this as his first clay match of the season after a late withdrawal in Monte Carlo, which could make the transition tricky. Still, Mensik’s stronger baseline game, particularly off the backhand wing, should give him the edge in rallies and ultimately the match.
Prediction: Mensik in 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Head-to-head: First meeting
An all-Spanish clash in Madrid between two crafty shotmakers promises to be entertaining. Pablo Carreno Busta, a former Masters 1000 champion, gained confidence with a strong three-set win over Fabian Marozsan in the previous round. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, however, brings exceptional speed, creativity, and controlled aggression to the court. While Carreno Busta, at his best, could counterpunch effectively, his current form suggests he may struggle to match Davidovich Fokina from the baseline, even though the latter is returning from a one-month break.
Prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – Imagn Images