Polling of 6543 people, conducted by YouGov for The Times and Sky News, suggests the Scottish Greens are on track to secure 16 seats in Holyrood.
The SNP are also projected to secure 62 seats, down from YouGov’s previous prediction of 67, meaning they fall short of an outright majority.
Reform UK are expected to become the main opposition party, securing 19 seats, ahead of Labour’s 17.
The Scottish Conservatives are also projected to land in a distant sixth, with just seven seats behind the LibDem’s eight.
It comes after James Kelly’s analysis predicted a Green surge with similar results, placing the SNP on 59 seats and the Greens on 23.
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Speaking to The Times, Patrick English, head of elections and political and social data at YouGov suggested the SNP may be getting “pegged back” by an expansion of anti-independence tactical voting.
Some of the seats that previously were showing as a tight SNP victory, such as Jackie Baillie’s Dumbarton seat, are now predicted to be held by the Unionist parties.
The new seat of Edinburgh Northern, as well as Strathkelvin and Bearsden, are now predicted to be won by the Liberal Democrats, with the Greens set to beat the SNP to the Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill constituency.
The SNP may fall short of a majority (Image: Robert Perry/PA Wire)
English said: “The SNP have clearly been pegged back between our two models owing in part to a slight decline in their own vote share, but more importantly, a drive upwards from the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats in some constituency seats where they are the best placed Unionist challenger. Each are now, we believe, winning at least one constituency contest each.
“The SNP’s projected majority in our April model was built on the back of winning 66 out of Scotland’s 72 available constituencies. Today, that figure has dropped to 61.
“While this will be disappointing news for John Swinney and his party, it has not seriously damaged his prospects of returning to Bute House as first minister. The SNP, plus Green seat totals, are more than enough to govern Scotland in 99% of model simulations.
“As well, there remains a notable chance however, according to our model, that the SNP flip those constituencies back into their column, and win an outright majority.”
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The polling outlined a range of outcomes, with the aforementioned figures being the median. On the higher end, the SNP could secure 66 seats, enough for a majority, or slump to 56 on the lower end.
Even at the lowest end of the scale, the Greens are projected to return a record number of MSPs with 12, or could rise to the second largest party on 20 MSPs if the most favourable results are achieved.
Reform UK would fail to win a single constituency, but would pick up 19 seats on the regional list, according to the median estimate. The pollster’s seat ranges project that Malcolm Offord’s party will win at least 15 and potentially as many as 23 MSPs.
Even on the highest end, Labour’s outcome is likely to be the worst in its post-devolution history, with a maximum return of 21 MSPs.
If the polls do not go Anas Sarwar‘s way, his party could return as few as 11.
Similarly, the Conservatives could return as few as 5 MSPs, while the highest outcome of 12 is more than half of their 2021 result of 31.
While there is only a small chance of a candidate outside the main six parties gaining a seat, the YouGov predication does suggest there could be one gain for an independent or fringe party on their most optimistic prediction.