Alarm bells are ringing. The Tigers are unleashed. In the wake of Leicester’s demolition derby 41-17 victory at home to Northampton Saints there was a tsunami of superlatives as their rivals were overwhelmed.
The Gallagher Prem has been perceived as a two-horse race by the vast majority of people for the vast majority of the season. Plenty have not seen beyond Bath. Now there are three horses. Maybe four if you take Sunday’s evidence from Exeter as hard fact.
Hmm, what about Saracens? They inflicted a defeat on the Tigers en route to becoming this season’s first team to beat Bristol at Ashton Gate — and beat them convincingly. The Bristol defence was at times non-existent. It is a recurring problem, one for which it was impossible to find excuses.
Pat Lam’s team travel to Northampton for Friday night’s game. Play as passively at the home of the league leaders and they could be hit for 50. That is, if the Saints find the form that deserted them at Leicester.
The bare statistics of the rout are deceptive. What is clear is that Geoff Parling deserves to be named coach of the season. He has continued Michael Cheika’s good work. Sitting only one point behind Bath in third, they are prowling around the home play-off positions. A semi-final in their den and I would back them against any side in England.
They have an immaculate home record in the Prem; neither Bath nor Northampton would fancy a trip to face the Tigers. Yet, for all that, there’s a nagging doubt. Too many are overrating Leicester’s title chances on the basis of that Northampton battering. Similarly, too many are underrating Northampton on the bare form of those 80 minutes.
Parling has continued Cheika’s good work, with Leicester sitting only one point behind Bath in third place in the Prem tableDavid Rogers/Getty Images
You can analyse all the statistics you want, point out the power of the pack (against a weakened Northampton set of forwards), you can argue that it may have been the most intense 80 minutes we have seen from an English team this campaign — and you may be right. But the main reason for the result, the main reason for not standing up to Leicester is one that cannot be seen. One side were ready for their most important match of the season, the other were psychologically — and with it, physically — undercooked.
One side knew their hopes of winning the Prem would be hugely affected by the result, the other knew it was a long way from do-or-die rugby. Leicester, unbeaten at home, are yet to defeat any of the top six sides on the road this season. On the last day they face Bath at the Recreation Ground. They will probably have to win that match to be at home in the semi-finals — probably another meeting against the defending champions. Away semi-finalists have a terrible record in the play-offs. Home advantage is huge.
Leicester blew Northampton away in the East Midlands derbyGetty
Parling’s team knew it and played like there was no tomorrow. Northampton did not. Yes, yes, but it was the East Midlands with bragging rights up for grabs, I hear you say. But while that old tradition still counts for plenty, it isn’t as important as the path being plotted to the final. Going into that game, the Saints were ten points clear of the Tigers. Horrible as it may seem to Northampton fans, they could afford to lose.
Phil Dowson will have looked at the remaining fixtures and seen a clear path for the Saints. Their last three games comprise Bristol Bears and Gloucester at home and Harlequins away — a path to a home play-off.
The introduction of Henry Pollock from the bench against Leicester was instructive. He added impact as a ball-carrier, but it was his perceived petulance that made the headlines. The easiest reaction to his posturing as he shoved Tigers players in the chest and bounced around, looking for non-existent aggro, was to dismiss him as a bit of a prat.
Pollock has a few words with Chessum but he will let his rugby do the talking against Bristol on Friday night Ashley Western/COLORSPORT/Shutterstock
But watch how supine the Saints were until Pollock’s entry into the game. Here was someone standing up to the Tigers in a team that were both physically and psychologically substandard. Someone had to rouse some of the aggression absent from the kick-off. Historically, the “hard man” role was not only to scare the opposition but also to inspire those around him.
Pollock did appear a bit of a prat, but he did it for the sake of his passive team-mates, not his own brand. The most talked-about player in England gets a chance to let his rugby do the talking against Bristol. He starts, wearing No7. Alex Coles, who is central to the Northampton pack, is back in the team to help galvanise last week’s beaten-up set of forwards.
Last week’s match reminded me of Leicester’s 64-14 defeat by Bordeaux Bègles in the Champions Cup on April 5. Parling sent a Tigers team to France minus the ever more inspiring Ollie Chessum, both their international props and Tommy Reffell. It wasn’t a second XV, but everyone knew what the omissions meant. Leicester are not 50 points inferior to the European champions, in the same way they are not 24 points superior to Northampton. If the two clubs clash at Twickenham in the Prem final, last week’s scoreline will have no bearing on the match.
The Saints’ only home blemish this season was a draw with Exeter on the opening weekend. Bristol, so brittle last week, will have to find their brilliant best and a defensive commitment so often unseen to beat a Northampton side that will be mentally and physically geared up for a game they have to win.
They won’t need Pollock to fire them up on Friday night. The defeat by Leicester was factored into the Saints roadmap to Twickenham. Losing at home to Bristol is not.
Northampton Saints v Bristol Bears
Gallagher Prem
Friday, 7.45pm
TV TNT Sports 1