But nor can it be said enough that Andy Burnham might not be successful in his bid to become an MP again. Reform will throw everything they have at winning the Makerfield seat to stop him in his tracks. They are flush with cash and still leading in the polls. For all Burnham’s personal popularity, Labour is neither popular nor rich right now.
I asked a minister what would happen if the so-called King of the North didn’t win – their answer was best described as a painful sigh. Would Burnham’s support switch over to Angela Rayner? Would some MPs panic and swarm back to Starmer? Despite the thundering hooves of the herd moving away from the party leadership this week, it’s 2026, so don’t rule anything out.
Whatever happens, Starmer has vital time ahead in No 10 when there are conflicts abroad and intense pressures all around. World events don’t just stop because the governing party in one country or another has a very public nervous breakdown, and problems at home don’t just simply disappear.
Right now, the UK, along with France, is trying to build an international coalition to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz again, with about 40 other countries. There is a Nato summit soon, where defence spending will be an issue, as well as an EU summit, where the UK wants a closer relationship with the European bloc.
Meanwhile, the government’s domestic in-tray is overflowing, and some decisions are already overdue. A defence spending plan, delayed for months, is sitting unsigned on the PM’s desk. A consultation on tightening children’s social media rules is about to close. Millions of households are waiting to find out whether they’ll get help with energy bills ahead of expected price rises, and a promised review of fuel duty has yet to produce an answer.
Also pressing are calls to act on public sector pay, AI regulation, youth employment, business energy costs, mental health provision, migration, special educational needs and NHS staffing.
And that list doesn’t even touch the biggest structural challenges: social care for the elderly, and a welfare reform programme that remains, for now, a promise without a bill. Those are all areas where decisions are due to be made in the coming months – even when the leadership is uncertain, government doesn’t stop.