It was the kind of result a political party dreams of. Rewind to 2024, the last time Andy Burnham stood for re-election as Greater Manchester mayor, and the region was a resounding sea of red.
Of Greater Manchester’s 215 wards only one – the Oldham suburb of Werneth – failed to cast their vote for the so-called ‘King of the North’. His total of 420,000 votes was six times higher than that of the Conservative candidate who trailed in a distant second.
In an age when politicians are arguably more mistrusted and disliked than ever before, it’s the kind of electoral stardust many in the Labour Party will be hoping to tap into as Burnham looks to defeat Reform in the Makerfield by-election – before possibly taking on Nigel Farage in the race for 10 Downing Street.
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But just how popular is Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester and does that appeal translate outside his home turf?
“Obviously in Greater Manchester he is very popular,” said Andy Westwood, a professor of government practice at the University of Manchester. “You have to qualify it by saying it was a fairly low turn-out, but if you look at the mayoral election he won in every ward bar one.
“But nationally he also polls well. His popularity stretches beyond Greater Manchester. He is one of the few Labour politicians with a net positive approval rating.”
Rumours about Mr Burnham’s possible return to Parliament have been swirling for months, with the mayor repeatedly playing a straight bat to questions about his intentions.
But in February he broke cover to throw his hat in the ring for the Gorton and Denton by-election, before being controversially blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee.
In his absence the Greens’ Hannah Spencer swept to victory with 40 per cent of the vote, consigning Labour to a distant third in a seat they had held in one guise or another, for almost a century. As the Labour Party picked through the wreckage of the defeat, deputy leader Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell admitted Mr Burnham ‘probably would have’ held the seat.
Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham talk during a reception in 10 Downing Street for regional mayors(Image: PA Archive)
And that was a claim seemingly backed up on the streets. As the Manchester Evening News spoke to voters in the constituency, Mr Burnham’s was the name that kept cropping up.
“Everybody likes Andy Burnham,” community centre volunteer Gill Birch told us. “He’s done brilliantly for Greater Manchester.”
“If they’d have put Andy Burnham in, we’d have won it… they’ve lost a lot of votes around here,” said life-long Labour voter Romney Hadfield.
The latest YouGov poll has Mr Burnham as the most popular Labour figure in the country with a +9 favourability rating. By comparison Sir Keir Starmer’s rating was -45 and Nigel Farage -38. So what’s behind those figures?
Certainly his performance during lockdown, when he repeatedly stood up to Boris Johnson’s government about the region’s treatment, earning him his ‘King of the North’ nickname, helped. But Tom Caygill, a senior lecturer in politics at Nottingham Trent University, says there is also another side to to his appeal.
“He is willing to speak plainly, he’s quite media-savvy without coming across as overly polished,” he said. “And there is a cross-party appeal to him. Reform voters and Green voters also rate him. That’s what the rest of the Labour party is beginning to realise.”
“He seems like an everyday sort of guy you could have a conversation with and personality is more relevant than policy,” added Prof Andy Westood. “But people can see the direction of travel and they can feel some of that positivity.”
Andy Burnham heads out for a run the day after announcing his intention to stand in the Makerfield by-election (Image: Peter Byrne/PA Wire)
But Mr Burnham is by no means without his critics. As health minister he was accused of failings in the Mid-Staffordshire hospital scandal. The scrapped plans to introduce a clean air zone in Greater Manchester cost the tax-payer more than £100m.
And Mr Burnham’s popularity also seemingly counted for little in this month’s local elections when Labour lost heavily to Reform and the Greens at councils across Greater Manchester. That included Wigan where Reform won 24 seats across the borough and a 46% vote share.
But many of those who voted for Reform also probably voted for Burnham to be mayor. And he’ll be hoping he can win them back round to the Labour cause come the by-election.
However, in what’s likely to be a closely-fought and divisive campaign, he’s likely to face criticism over the Labour Party’s stance on Brexit, how he handled the myriad child grooming scandals in the region and accusations that Makerfield is just a stepping stone on his way to Downing Street.
If, however, he can triumph in a Reform stronghold he’ll likely hold it up to the Labour Party faithful as proof he can stop the march of a Reform government. It means the 76,000-strong electorate in Makerfield could, in effect, be voting for the next Prime Minister.
And it’s a burden that’s already weighing heavily on some. “That’s a big responsibility that I feel l uneasy about,” 23-year-old Kyle Williams, from Hindley, told the Manchester Evening News earlier this week.
“It impacts a lot of my future as well as friends and family. Myself, I don’t really understand the big picture.
“They’ve given out the short story of what can happen in the short term, if it does happen. But will it be a wasted vote? What if we’re promised the world and we’re given nothing?”
Others think his ambition maybe his undoing. “I do think he’ll struggle,” said 39-year-old business owner Steven Groves. “I think because he’s ultimately running to be Prime Minister, not to be an MP, we’re going to get a lot of people who may not vote for him for that very reason.
“He’s not really doing it to be an MP for Makerfield, we all know what he’s going to do, he wants to usurp Starmer.”
Others still are adamant Reform will win and win easily. “I know Andy personally, we go back a long way. But I can’t in good conscience vote for Labour,” 56-year-old Jay Swallow, owner of Jay’s Wool and Haberdashery in Makerfield, said. “It’s not going to be a shoo in for them, it will be a Reform landslide.”
Meanwhile doubts also remain about Burnham’s ability to transfer his approach, one which he’s described as ‘Manchesterism’, onto a national level.
“The big question is is he able to scale up his successes in Manchester?,” said Tom Caygill. “Can he Manchesterise the rest of the country?”
And don’t forget the last time Mr Burnjham ran for the Labour leadership in 2015 – having already been eliminated in the first round of the 2010 contest – he lost out to Jeremy Corbyn’s landslide victory. It all adds up to an election which maybe a lot closer than some think.
But while the result is unclear, what’s certain is that the outcome will affect us all.