People on the maximum rate of the Basic State Pension could see monthly payments rise to £741 under the Triple Lock.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the UK average regular earnings growth remained at 5.0 per cent (excluding bonuses) in the three months to June and was 1.5 per cent higher after taking Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate of 3.6 per cent into account.

This new data is something nearly 13 million State Pensioners across Great Britain – including over one million living in Scotland – should start keeping an eye on as both elements form part of the Triple Lock guarantee.

Under the Triple Lock, State Pensions increase each year in-line with whichever is the highest of average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September or 2.5 per cent.

READ MORE: New DWP update on future plans for State Pension Triple LockREAD MORE: New calls to increase weekly State Pension payments to £586 for every person aged over 60

The New and Basic State Pension increased by 4.7 per cent in April, which means someone on the full New State Pension currently receives £230.25 per week, or £921 every four-week pay period.

Those on the full Basic State Pension receive £176.45 each week, or £705.80 every four-week pay period.

State Pension uprating predictions for 2026/27

The Triple Lock is currently on track to be determined by the earnings growth element – currently at 5 per cent (excluding bonuses) and 4.6 per cent (including bonuses). However, this figure may go up or down and isn’t the final metric that will determine the level of uprating.

The earnings growth figure that will be included in the Triple Lock guarantee will be published by the ONS on September 16. The CPI figure that will be used is due to be published in mid-October.

The annual State Pension uprating won’t be confirmed until the Autumn Budget, but pensioners – and those due to retire next year – can start to plan their finances by following the Triple Lock measurements.

That being said, a 5 per cent increase on the current State Pension would see people receive the following amounts.

Full New State PensionWeekly: £241.75Four-weekly pay period: £967Annual amount: £12,571Full Basic State PensionWeekly: £185.25Four-weekly pay period: £741Annual amount: £9,633

The annual uprating won’t be confirmed until the Autumn Budget, but pensioners – and those due to retire next year – can start to plan their finances by following the Triple Lock measurements.

State Pension and tax

The Labour Government confirmed earlier this year that the Personal Allowance will remain frozen at £12,570 until April 2028.

If the New and Basic State Pension increased by the lower measure of the Triple Lock (2.5%), it would see the full New State Pension exceed the income tax threshold by nearly £79 in the 2027/28 financial year (£12,578.80).

While the amount of State Pension to be taxed may seem relatively small – tax is only paid on the amount over the Personal Allowance – older people with other income streams could find themselves having to part with more cash to pay a tax bill – if it’s not automatically deducted from private or workplace pensions through PAYE.

And remember, that figure is based on the lower measure of the Triple Lock. Using the current projections, more pensioners could be dragged into the retirement tax net sooner, especially if they have additional income through a private or workplace pension.

What is taxed

Guidance on GOV.UK states: “You pay tax if your total annual income adds up to more than your Personal Allowance. Find out about your Personal Allowance and Income Tax rates.

Your total income could include:

the State Pension you get – Basic or New State PensionAdditional State Pensiona private pension (workplace or personal) – you can take some of this tax-freeearnings from employment or self-employmentany taxable benefits you getany other income, such as money from investments, property or savingsCheck if you have to pay tax on your pension

Before you can check, you will need to know:

if you have a State Pension or a private pensionhow much State Pension and private pension income you will get this tax year (April 6 to April 5)the amount of any other taxable income you’ll get this tax year (for example, from employment or state benefits)

You cannot use this tool if you get:

any foreign incomeMarriage AllowanceBlind Person’s Allowance

Use this online tool at GOV.UK to check if you have to pay tax on your pension.

The full guide to tax when you get a pension can be found on GOV.UK here.

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