Originally published in The Scotsman on 18 June 2026
Ten years ago, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The referendum triggered one of the most significant constitutional, economic and policy shifts in modern times and few sectors have experienced more uncertainty and change as a consequence than Scottish agriculture.
As we mark the tenth anniversary of that vote, it is worth asking a simple question: what has actually changed for Scotland’s farmers and crofters?
In some respects, a great deal has changed. In others, remarkably little.
On paper, Scotland has left the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Yet much of the framework that governed agriculture under the EU remains familiar. Through the Agriculture (EU Retained Law and Data) (Scotland) Act 2020, many existing provisions were retained to ensure continuity and stability.
For many farmers and crofters, the fundamentals remain largely unchanged. Businesses still rely heavily on public support to underpin food production in some of the most challenging agricultural environments in Europe. What has changed is the wider operating environment, with greater exposure to global market volatility, ongoing labour shortages, rising costs and continued uncertainty around future policy direction.
For Scottish agriculture, Brexit was never simply about leaving the European Union. It was about what might come next.
Many in the industry saw genuine opportunities in moving away from the CAP. While it provided vital support, it was often criticised for being bureaucratic and poorly suited to Scotland’s distinctive agricultural landscape.
More than 80 per cent of Scotland’s agricultural land is classified as Less Favoured Area. We have extensive livestock systems, fragile island communities and crofting regions that play a vital role in supporting rural populations, biodiversity and local economies. The prospect of designing a support framework tailored to those realities offered significant potential.
Ten years on, the question is not whether Scotland has the powers to create a better system. It is whether those powers have yet been fully used.
Despite years of discussion about agricultural reform, direct support remains fundamental to farm viability. For many livestock and crofting businesses, support payments continue to make the difference between profit and loss.
The language may have evolved. Policy discussions increasingly focus on climate action, biodiversity and rural development. But the underlying economic reality remains much the same as it was in 2016.
Public investment remains essential if Scotland wishes to maintain domestic food production, support rural communities and manage the landscapes that society values. The challenge is not whether support should exist, but whether it is sufficient, predictable and targeted towards active farmers and crofters.
The Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Act 2024 provides the legislative powers to shape a distinctly Scottish agricultural policy. However, legislation alone changes very little. The real test will be delivery.
Food production, climate resilience and biodiversity recovery are not competing objectives. Profitable and sustainable agriculture is the foundation upon which all three depend. Without viable farming and crofting businesses there can be no delivery of the wider public benefits that society increasingly expects from the sector.
Perhaps nowhere are the consequences of Brexit more visible than in trade.
The European Union remains Scotland’s most important agricultural export market. While new trade agreements have opened opportunities elsewhere, geography matters. Established supply chains matter. The EU continues to be a critical destination for Scottish agricultural exports.
Brexit has introduced friction into what was previously a seamless trading relationship. Additional certification requirements, customs processes and regulatory complexity have increased costs for exporters. Scotland’s seed potato sector remains one of the clearest examples of the challenges that have emerged.
The lesson is straightforward. Scottish agriculture benefits from the closest possible trading relationship with the European Union.
That is not about revisiting old political arguments. It is about recognising economic reality. Through ongoing UK-EU discussions, practical measures that reduce unnecessary barriers, improve regulatory cooperation and facilitate agri-food trade should continue to be pursued.
Brexit also returned responsibility for trade policy to Westminster. That brought both opportunities and concerns.
NFU Scotland has consistently argued that future trade agreements must not undermine domestic production standards. Scottish farmers and crofters produce food to high standards of animal welfare, environmental protection, traceability and food safety. Trade policy must ensure imports are not produced to standards that place domestic producers at a competitive disadvantage.
One of the most significant developments since 2016 has been the renewed focus on food security. Pandemic, geopolitical instability and supply chain disruption have all reinforced the importance of domestic food production.
A decade ago, food security was often treated as a secondary policy issue. Today it sits much closer to the centre of political debate. Future agricultural policy must reflect that reality.
So, has Brexit changed Scottish agriculture?
Ten years on, the honest answer is both yes and no.
The legislative framework has changed. The policy framework has changed. The trading framework has changed.
Yet many of the fundamental challenges facing Scottish farming and crofting remain strikingly familiar. Businesses still require support to remain viable. Food production remains the sector’s primary purpose. Export markets remain critically important. Profitability remains under pressure and rural communities continue to depend upon thriving agricultural businesses.
What the last decade has demonstrated is that policy matters. Funding matters. Delivery matters. Above all, certainty matters.
Farmers and crofters can adapt to change. What businesses struggle with is prolonged uncertainty about future budgets, support schemes and regulatory requirements. Investment follows confidence.
Scotland now has the legislative powers, policy flexibility and practical experience to create an agricultural support framework that works for Scottish farmers and crofters.
What is required now is long-term budget certainty, practical scheme design, proportionate regulation and a renewed recognition that food production sits at the heart of agricultural and rural policy.
The debate is no longer about who holds the powers. The real question is whether those powers will be used to provide the certainty, confidence and investment needed to secure the future of Scottish farming and crofting – and all that it delivers for Scotland.