An Andy Burnham premiership is unlikely to make “significant” savings to the ballooning welfare bill, economists have warned.
In the run-up to today’s by-election, the Mayor of Greater Manchester has said he wants to reduce social security spending by rethinking education and supporting young people, rather than “crude cuts”.
But economists have argued that “tinkering around the sides” is unlikely to address surging welfare expenditure in the short term – which is predicted to hit £400bn by the end of the decade, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
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Lidl toasts ‘milestone’ moment with launch of first Middle Ale bar
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 1500 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Lidl of Lidl Northern Ireland’s pub, The Middle Ale, in Dundonald, Belfast. The 60-seater pub is next door to Lidl Dundonald store and will operate independently, with a separate entrance, as a public house with off-sales. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. The pub’s wine list has been chosen by Lidl’s Master of Wine Richard Bampfield, and the spirits and liqueurs includes Lidl’s own-brand Dundalgan whiskey and Wild Burrow Gin, as well as range of pre-mixed cocktails and soft drinks, including their own-brand Freeway cola. Photo credit should read: Lidl/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lidl
Provider: Lidl/PA Wire
Source: PA
Supermarket chain Lidl has opened the doors to its first pub. The Middle Ale bar and off-licence is adjacent to the existing Lidl store in Dundonald, near Belfast.
Here is everything you need to know about the new venture.
Why has Lidl opened a pub?
The venture represents Lidl’s novel way of ensuring compliance with Northern Ireland’s strict and complex licensing laws.
The distribution of liquor licences are tightly controlled in the region and can only be obtained by purchasing them from businesses that are closing or no longer intend to sell alcohol.
Lidl, which operates some 11,000 stores across Europe and North America, is diverting vessels from its in-house shipping company around Africa to avoid the threat off attacks in the Red Sea. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
A closer look at the details
Applicants must also prove there is an “inadequacy” of provision in the area.
Having been unable to prove there was an inadequate number of off-licences in the Dundonald area, Lidl pivoted its strategy and applied for a pub licence instead, arguing there were not enough bars in the area.
After a protracted process, the chain succeeded in securing a licence to sell alcohol in a pub, with an attached off-sales section.
NEWS
2 min read
Middle aisle to Middle Ale
Today marks an important milestone as we open our first-ever public house and begin welcoming customers
to The Middle Ale. We’re thrilled to finally bring the Dundonald community access to our full range of high quality, premium beers, wines and spirits for the first time in more than two decades.
Gordon Cruikshanks, regional managing director for Lidl Northern Ireland
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 1500 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Lidl of
bar manager Samantha Hill and regional manager Gordon Cruikshanks, Regional Managing Director for Lidl Northern Ireland outside Lidl Northern Ireland’s pub, The Middle Ale, in Dundonald, Belfast. The 60-seater pub is next door to Lidl Dundonald store and will operate independently, with a separate entrance, as a public house with off-sales. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. The pub’s wine list has been chosen by Lidl’s Master of Wine Richard Bampfield, and the spirits and liqueurs includes Lidl’s own-brand Dundalgan whiskey and Wild Burrow Gin, as well as range of pre-mixed cocktails and soft drinks, including their own-brand Freeway cola. Photo credit should read: Lidl/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lidl
Provider: Lidl/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: The Archbishop of Canterbury Dame Sarah Mullally delivers a speech in the Leo Baeck College during a visit to the to Sternberg Centre to meet with the Jewish community in Finchley in a demonstration of solidarity following the recent antisemitic attacks in London. Picture date: Thursday May 14, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire
Photographer: Jonathan Brady
Provider: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire
Source: PA
news
Everything you need to know about forced adoption scandal
The Church of England has apologised to those affected by historical forced adoptions organised by the church after the Government confirmed it would be apologising yesterday.
What you need to know
The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dame Sarah Mullally, said she was sorry for the “pain, trauma and stigma” experienced by mothers and children in homes affiliated with the Church.
She said she had heard first-hand stories from survivors and that they should not be ashamed, because “the shame is ours”.
Young Mother playing with children while sitting on floor at home with wooden toys – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Big Read
7 min read
What happened?
An estimated 185,000 babies of unmarried mothers were adopted in England and Wales between 1949 and 1976.
The Church of England believes up to tens of thousands of these adoptions took place in Church-affiliated homes, where mothers were forced into manual labour as punishment.
‘I could tell Josh wanted to run away. Things finally came to a head when we went to register the birth’ (Photo: Natalia Lebedinskaia/Getty)
The apology does not mention compensation, but a wider redress scheme might mean survivors could be eligible for up to £660,000.
Watch more from The i Paper
England’s World Cup campaign has just begun, but should fans be allowed to decorate streets with St George’s flags? Councils across the West Country are warning people not to attach flags to lampposts, railings and other public property, saying it can create safety issues and may even be a criminal offence. We visited what’s been called England’s most patriotic street to hear what local people think. Read more on this story at the link above ⬆️ #WorldCup #FifaWorldCup #England #Englandflag
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Number of job vacancies hits
five-year low
The increase in unemployment, which has exceeded expectations, was driven by people out of work for up to 12 months, the ONS said (Photo: Philip Toscano/PA Wire)
There are fewer jobs available than there have been for five years, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), as firms blame wage growth and economic uncertainty for their reluctance to hire staff.
How bad is the job market?
Vacancies stood at…
707,000
in May this year, the lowest number since April 2021.
In the three months to May, vacancies fell by…
19,000
This is also the sharpest drop in five years.
The drop was most significant across retail, hospitality and professional services, as well as small employers across industries.
How did this happen?
With wage growth hovering at 3.4 per
cent, employers are reluctant to hire new staff, hire new staff, who will become an ongoing cost.
Rafe said that when a promising contact appeared through a large WhatsApp group for international students, he at first had felt a glimmer of hope (Photo: Getty)
Jeremy Hunt has been urged to help manufacturers expand (Photo: David Davies/PA)
The number of workers on payrolls fell by 53,000 during the same period, further suggesting companies are not looking to expand the workforce. The ONS said the key drivers are economic uncertainty and higher labour costs.
If Government is serious about tackling youth unemployment, it must
bring down the cost of employing young people
and ensure employment reforms support entry-level recruitment and progression.
helen dickinson, chief executive of the british retail consortium
Caption: Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.
Photo: Jonathan Brady/ Reuters.
UK NEWS
Boy, 3, ‘thrown’ into crocodile enclosure at Cambridgeshire zoo
A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy ended up in a crocodile enclosure at a zoo in Old Hurst, Huntingdonshire, leaving him with serious injuries.
What we know so far
Cambridgeshire Police said they were called to Johnson’s of Old Hurst, near Huntingdon, just before 1.30pm on Thursday after reports that a boy had “ended up in the crocodile enclosure”.
Police confirmed the boy is in a “critical but stable” condition in hospital, after reports he was “thrown” into the enclosure.
A 30-year-old man from Norfolk has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.
Big Read
7 min read
Man and child ‘not known to each other’
At this stage we are speaking to people who were at the zoo at the time of this distressing incident to understand more about the circumstances. We do not believe the man arrested and the child are known to each other.
Detective Inspector Verity McCann, Cambridgeshire Police
Caption: close-up of a crocodile lying in the sand of a zoo with its mouth open and a pond behind it, frontal view
Photographer: aire images
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Off-peak visitor hoursstone henge
Provider: Gavin Haines
Copyright: ? English Heritage Trust
Provider: Gavin Haines
Copyright: ? English Heritage Trust
news
Older version of Stonehenge found three miles from famous site
Two unassuming holes in the ground
in Bulford, Wiltshire, indicate a
sun-worshipping ritual which predates the ancient landmark by about 500 years, a new archaeological discovery suggests.
Simpler version of stone circle
Archaeologists believe ancient worshippers would celebrate the winter and summer solstices at the earlier site, which dates to around 5,000 years ago – about 500 years before Stonehenge proper. They believe two wooden posts, long since rotted but leaving the holes which held them, would have lined up precisely with sunrise on 21 June and sunset on 21 December, just like the Stonehenge stones.
People gather at Stonehenge, Wiltshire, during sunrise on the summer solstice, the longest day of the year. Picture date: Saturday June 21, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Zhanna Manukyan/PA Wire
Explained
2 min read
Planning for Stonehenge?
The discovery of Bulford actually suggests that maybe the people who built the first stages of Stonehenge were based or living there, or at least gathering seasonally to do the construction work at Stonehenge.
dr jennifer wexler, curator of history at english heritage
Caption: AMESBURY, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 22: Members of the Shakti Sings choir sing as druids, pagans and revellers gather in the centre of Stonehenge, hoping to see the sun rise, as they take part in a winter solstice ceremony at the ancient neolithic monument of Stonehenge near Amesbury on December 22, 2018 in Wiltshire, England. A large crowd gathered at the famous historic stone circle, a UNESCO listed ancient monument to celebrate the sunrise closest to the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year. The event is claimed to be more important in the pagan calendar than the summer solstice, because it marks the ‘re-birth’ of the Sun for the New Year. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
Photographer: Matt Cardy
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
More discoveries made at site
The site was discovered when developers cleared land for military housing 10 years ago. Phil Harding, of Wessex Archaeology, noticed the holes looked to be aligned with the sun and took measurements to confirm this.
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout illustration issued by Wessex Archaeology of a disc shaped flint knife found at Bulford by Phil Harding of Wessex Archaeology. Archaeologists have discovered a 5,000-year-old structure that may have served as an early “prototype” for the alignment for the solstice at Stonehenge. A Wessex Archaeology team led by TV’s “Time Team” archaeologist Phil Harding have announced the discovery three miles from the world-famous stone circle, a few days before the summer solstice when thousands will flock to Stonehenge for the sunrise. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Wessex Archaeology
Provider: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
Source: PA
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY JUNE 18
Undated handout photo issued by Wessex Archaeology of Phil Harding at Stonehenge on Salisbury Plain in Wiltshire. Archaeologists have discovered a 5,000-year-old structure that may have served as an early “prototype” for the alignment for the solstice at Stonehenge. A Wessex Archaeology team led by TV’s “Time Team” archaeologist Phil Harding have announced the discovery three miles from the world-famous stone circle, a few days before the summer solstice when thousands will flock to Stonehenge for the sunrise. Issue date: Thursday June 18, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Wessex Archaeology
Provider: Wessex Archaeology/PA Wire
Source: PA
Other artefacts, including pottery, animal bones and a rare Neolithic flint knife, were found there, suggesting it was a place of ritual worship.
health
The drugs affected by ‘most severe’ shortages ever seen
Caption: File photo dated 16/11/09 of a pharmacist stocking shelves. Pharmacy staff are facing “escalating abuse” from patients while at work, with reports of racism, verbal attacks and violence, a survey has found. Around one in five pharmacy owners said verbal abuse was a daily occurrence, according to Community Pharmacy England. Issue date: Thursday March 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Julien Behal/PA Wire
Photographer: Julien Behal
Provider: Julien Behal/PA Wire
Source: PA Wire
Drug shortages are some of the worst GPs and pharmacists have ever seen, according to experts.
Industry bodies have warned common medications such as painkillers and prescriptions to manage blood pressure could be affected.
Some of the drugs affected
Ramipril high blood pressure drug is one of those affected, together with prescription co-codamol and some strengths of low-dose aspirin.
There are ongoing shortages of Creon, which helps people with conditions including cystic fibrosis and pancreatic cancer digest food.
Serious shortage protocols are also in place for Estradot, a form of hormone replacement therapy.
WELLBEING
7 min read
These shortages are some of the most severe the UK has experienced. Our medicines market has never been so volatile, with patients and primary care colleagues at the sharp end of events outside of their control
Olivier Picard, chair of the National Pharmacy Association
Caption: Olivier Picard, pharmacist and chair of the National Pharmacy Association (Photo: Supplied)
Source: Olivier Picard
More health from The i Paper
‘The first line of defence’ against the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has ‘collapsed’ and there are ‘likely’ more cases than official figures tell us, according to Oxfam. There are currently over 780 confirmed cases and over 180 deaths according to the DRC health ministry – making it the largest outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola on record. But Oxfam have warned that, because of a lack of clean water and sanitation, the true numbers are probably far higher. #ebola #ebolavirus
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Photographer: Peter Dazeley
Provider: Getty Images
Source: The Image Bank RF
news
The city where you’re most likely to get a speeding fine
New data reveals an unexpected hotspot for speeding tickets, beating London for the average cameras per square mile.
Here is everything you need to know.
Which city takes the top spot?
Drivers in Bradford are the most likely to get caught speeding, with 84 cameras and the highest concentration of speeding cameras per square mile of anywhere in the UK.
It’s the only city in the country to have more than two cameras per square mile, partly due to the roll-out of 20mph zones across the city in the last few years.
MONEY
4 min read
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
Where else should I watch my speed?
Caption: EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY OCTOBER 16
File photo dated 11/12/19 of a speed camera in London. A surge in drivers being caught by speed cameras has been blamed for a 12% increase in the number of penalty points added to licences last year. Issue date: Thursday October 16, 2025. PA Photo. Figures obtained by Co-op Insurance show drivers in Britain received 9.61 million points in 2024. Photo credit should read: Ian West/PA Wire
Photographer: Ian West
Provider: Ian West/PA Wire
Source: PA
London has the most cameras at 671, with 1.93 per square mile.
Just west of the capital Hounslow has 72 cameras, 1.86 per square mile.
Tipton in the West Midlands comes in fourth with 1.57 per square mile.
Housing nightmares
6 min read
The wider context
According to the Government’s vehicle compliance statistics, the number of drivers getting caught speed is increasing, and has been for some time. Some 1.84 million drivers attended a speed awareness course in 2024, a 3 per cent rise on the previous year and a 139 per cent increase on figures from 2011.
Explained
5 min read
Big Read
6 min read
Watch more from The i Paper
Exclusive | Vigilantes are – once again – attempting to launch a military-inspired operation to bring a stop to migrants crossing the English Channel, after previous efforts failed and infighting tore one leading group apart following The i Paper‘s coverage of their secret plans. Banned from France after slashing migrant boats last year, one far-right figure is now turning his attention to the English coast. Daniel Thomas, an associate of Tommy Robinson, is planning to put “50 boats” in the English Channel and lock down the Port of Dover to stop migrants from entering the UK. Read Sanya’s full piece on @theipaper website.
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Teacher given whole life order for sex abuse and murder of baby
A schoolteacher has been handed a whole life order for the murder and sexual abuse of his adopted 13-month-old baby he treated as a “plaything”.
Caption: Undated handout photo originally issued on 21/04/26
by Lancashire Police of Preston Davey. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Teacher to spend life behind bars
Varley, 37, was handed a mandatory life sentence at Preston Crown Court today for murder, sexual assault, child cruelty and taking indecent images of a child.
Caption: Undated handout photo issued by
by Lancashire Police of John McGowan-Fazakerley. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston Davey at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Caption: Undated handout photo issued by
by Lancashire Police of Jamie Varley, 37 who has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston Davey at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
His partner John McGowan-Fazakerley, 32, was sentenced to 25 years for sexual assault and allowing the death of Preston, who they adopted at nine months old in 2022.
A closer look at the detail
Baby Preston was adopted by the couple after being taken away from his mother, Sarah Davey, at five days old, and was subjected to a series of sexual and violent attacks before being killed by Varley on 27 April, 2023.
He was taken to Victoria Blackpool hospital and seen by social services multiple times during his short life.
Caption: Undated handout photo originally issued on 21/04/26
by Lancashire Police of Preston Davey. Jamie Varley, 37 has been found guilty of the murder and sexual abuse of 13-month-old baby Preston at Preston Crown Court on Monday. John McGowan-Fazakerley was found guilty of allowing the death of a child, two counts of child cruelty and one count of the sexual assault of a child. Issue date: Monday June 15, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Photographer: Lancashire Police
Provider: Lancashire Police/PA Wire
Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Analysis
4 min read
Little Preston was taken from his mother and put into the care of the state. The state has failed him. We need to do better. I’ve been waiting for this Child Protection Authority to be set up. There’s been a consultation, it’s gone too slow.
dame rachel de souza, children’s commissioner
Children’s Commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza (Photo: Yui Mok/PA Wire)
A key driver of this is the state pension triple lock – the guarantee that pensions will rise by the higher of 2.5 per cent, inflation or average wage growth. Burnham has committed to maintaining the lock until at least the end of this Parliament. He has also hinted that the next government should “look at” the tax paid by pensioners.
State pensions are likely to be dragged into tax brackets from next year, as they rise, but tax thresholds remain frozen.
Burnham’s comments on pensions and benefits may land well with Makerfield voters – the constituency is home to higher-than-average proportions of pensioners and people claiming personal independence payments.
But if the Mayor wins the crucial by-election and a subsequent challenge to Sir Keir Starmer, he will find himself bound by the same economic constraints as the PM, economists warn.
Benefits: ‘Reduce welfare spending for defence’
Burnham has vowed to slash the welfare bill to boost defence, but he prefers holistic reform focused on tackling the root causes of youth unemployment rather than changes to eligibility for benefits.
Speaking to The i Paper, he said the welfare bill should be reduced by “rethinking the education system” and supporting young people into work rather than “crude cuts”.
Burnham has backed Alan Milburn’s initial report on young people not in education, employment, or training (Neet) – which stated that the Government spends 25 times as much on benefits for young people than it does on supporting them into work.
Burnham has outlined plans to address youth unemployment while boosting defence by insisting that every government contract given to British industry must include a “social value” commitment, such as work placements or apprenticeships for young people, as reported in The Times.
He also plans to draw inspiration from Greater Manchester’s experience of running devolved employment support programmes, linking up services and giving local leaders more powers to support people into work.
However, Jonathan Cribb, deputy director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), questioned whether these policies would convince the OBR that “significant savings” could be made in the short term.
He said the public finances watchdog would be “much more confident” if spending were controlled by measures that “change the actual financial entitlements”, compared with changes “around the edges” that attempt to reduce the number of people accessing the welfare system.
Cribb questioned whether these peripheral changes would “generate savings in the next five years – if there are any – or is it going to generate savings in 20 years time?”.
Nicholas Barr, a professor of public economics at the London School of Economics, said Burnham’s direction of travel of supporting was “absolutely right” as it is economically desirable to “invest in human capital” rather than funding benefits.
But he added that investment was unlikely to “save money” to bolster the defence budget in the short term.
Pensions: The triple lock is safe – for now
Burnham has ruled out abolishing the triple lock during this Parliament, previously telling The i Paper that rowing back on Labour’s manifesto promise not to do so would be “very damaging”.
However, he has not spelled out what would happen to the policy beyond 2029.
While many politicians believe reforming the triple lock would be too politically toxic among older voters, a growing number of Labour MPs have been lobbying for Burnham to axe it to release money for defence and young people.
Many economists also argue it is unaffordable in the longer term. The state pension costs £146.1bn a year, which is around 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), and the largest single contributor to the total £322.6bn that the Government spending on the social security system.
Andy Burnham attends a Saturday breakfast club in Ashton-in-Makerfield to meet retired miners and local organisers (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty)
Alex Clegg, an economist at the Resolution Foundation think-tank, said it would be “encouraging if the debate around what could happen with the triple lock can be had ahead of the next election and going into the manifesto period for all parties”.
The foundation – formerly run by the Government’s pensions minister Torsten Bell – recently proposed transitioning to an Australian-style system, which tracks wage growth but protects the value of the state pension from temporary price shocks by pinning it to inflation in times of economic uncertainty.
Clegg’s analysis suggests switching to this policy could have saved £12.6bn since 2011, when the triple lock was introduced.
Will Prescott, head of research at think-tank Bright Blue, said Burnham must look at “big ticket items” such as the state pension if he wants to bring down the welfare bill, rather than “tinkering around the edges”.
“If you really want to touch the welfare bill, you are going to have to start going for the really big ticket items, and that will, unfortunately, be politically extremely painful to do,” he told The i Paper.
However, he said his “deep fear” was that a Burnham premiership would be “more of the same, but with better presentation”, adding: “We can’t keep spending ever greater sums of a shrinking pie and heavily crushing the next generation in tax.”
Considering tax cuts for older people
Burnham has also suggested in a recent interview with The i Paper he would “look at” tax cuts for older people.
He said the growing number of older people being drawn into paying income tax through frozen tax thresholds – “fiscal drag” – was an issue that the next government “need[s] to look at as well”.
One option would be reforming or replacing the triple lock so that fewer pensioners hit the income tax personal allowance annual threshold of £12,570.
At the moment the state pension is 12,547.60 a year, meaning it is highly likely to go over the personal allowance threshold next year. While any tax paid will be initially minimal, it will be an unwelcome symbolism of the UK’s tax burden.
Another option – proposed by the Tories at the 2024 general election – would be applying the triple lock mechanism to the tax-free allowance for pensioners so that it rises in tandem with pensions, meaning that retirees living on the state pension would never have to pay income tax.
At the time, the IFS estimated that it would cost £2.4bn a year by the end of the 2024-29 Parliament.
Barr, from LSE, suggested that ministers could offer a “political quid pro quo” for pensioners by raising the tax threshold while also scrapping the triple lock.
However, he said this could be “quite expensive” as it means raising the threshold for all pensioners, including those on high occupational pensions.











