Headline inflation eases more than expected but RBA rate-hike risk remains, ASX 200 rises — as it happened

The chances of an interest rate increase at the next RBA meeting have risen after the release of mixed inflation data by the ABS.

Headline inflation eased to an annual rate of 4 per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April, but the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation ticked higher

The Australian share market finished the day with modest gains despite a major sell-off across US tech, AI and semiconductor stocks, which resulted in steep losses on Wall Street. 

Look back on how the trading day unfolded in our business blog.

Disclaimer: This blog is not intended as investment advice.

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:36pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:36pm

Market snapshotASX 200 +0.24% to 8,808 points
Australian dollar: Flat at 69.12 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.8%), KOSPI (+3.8%)
Spot gold: -0.5% to $US4,086/ounce 
Brent crude: -0.8% to $US76.48/barrel Iron ore: -0.2% at $US100.53/tonne 
Bitcoin: +0.6% to $US62,743

Prices current around 4:30pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 5:09pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 5:09pm

Catch you on Thursday

And that’s where we might bring our business blog to a close.

This Wednesday — the last humpday of the month — saw the ASX 200 make small gains, rising by 0.24 per cent.

But the stat of the day was Australia’s headline inflation figure of 4%, less than expected as energy prices came down, but higher than many economists would have liked.

They say it increases the chances of a rate hike when the RBA next meets in August.

We will do it all again on Thursday. Thanks for keeping us company today.

LoadingWed 24 Jun 2026 at 5:04pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 5:04pm

‘Australian economy has been hollowed out’: academic

The rise of One Nation has thrown the cat among the pigeons in Australia’s political landscape.

It has seen the Coalition fighting to keep its identity — not to mention its voters.

Allan Patience, an honorary fellow at the University of Melbourne in the School of Social and Political Sciences, has been speaking to business reporter Gareth Hutchens about some of the changes and how they impact us economically.

He said that “over the past four decades, the Australian economy has been systematically hollowed out”.

Read more here:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:57pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:57pm

The world’s ‘new maritime order’

Some $US125 billion ($181 billion) in vessel and cargo value awaits passage from the Persian Gulf, according to Allianz Commercial’s latest Safety and Shipping Review.

There are hopes that the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, amid a fragile peace deal between the US and Iran, will help shipping return to a sense of normality.

Allianz says the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz is the latest in a series of recent disruptions to have impacted shipping.

“They signal a transition toward a ‘new maritime order’ defined by escalating security risks along strategic shipping corridors, the disruption of established trade routes, persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums, and a greater strategic emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency,” the review said.

“In addition to geopolitical uncertainty, traditional risks for the shipping industry remain a major concern, although the numbers of total vessel losses and incidents have continued to decline in recent years.”

Incidents fell 16% to fewer than 3,000 globally in 2025, the report said, while fire remains a major loss driver with over 200 incidents, the second-highest total in a decade.

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:32pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:32pm

WiseTech Global shares gain 14 per cent

After taking a battering at the start of the week, shares in Australian tech company WiseTech Global have made sharp gains.

On Wednesday, they rose by over 14%, having been up by around 16% at one point.

That’s despite the ongoing controversy involving their founder and executive chairman, Richard White.

Lithium developer Elevra Lithium also had a good day, with its shares increasing by more than 9%, while accounting software company Xero Ltd saw a 8.9% jump in its stock.

But shedding value on Wednesday were shares of Predictive Discovery Ltd. The gold exporter saw its stock drop by more than 11%.

Top and bottom moversWed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:25pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:25pm

Healthcare and Technology lead the way

The best performing sector on a decent day for the ASX 200 was healthcare, followed by technology and industrials.

At the other end of the scale, basic materials and energy were the only sectors on Wednesday that ended in the red.

Sector summary on Wednesday (refinitiv.com)Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:13pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:13pm

ASX up 0.24 per cent

Wednesday’s session has come to an end, and the ASX 200 has made modest gains.

It is up by 21 points, or 0.24%, to finish at 8,808.4 points.

The All Ordinaries has climbed 0.27%, or 24 points, to end at 9,012.6 points.

The increase in Australian shares comes after the release of inflation figures, showing a headline rate of 4%, lower than anticipated.

But the rate hike risk remains high because trimmed mean inflation — the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — increased from an annual pace of 3.4% to 3.6%.

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:06pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:06pm

How the consumer price index has been tracking

Here’s a look at how the consumer price index has been tracking, from the peak in 2022:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:05pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:05pm

US dollar hits 13-month high

With the Australian dollar briefly dipping below 69 US cents today, the greenback has been scaling the heights.

The US dollar extended gains to reach a fresh 13-month high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investors sought shelter from a tech stock selloff and prepared for rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve.

Stock market volatility continued after a broad sell-off of technology and semiconductor sectors dragged global shares lower, sparking safe-haven demand for the dollar and bonds.

Meanwhile, expectations of a US rate hike continued to build with Fed officials sounding increasingly hawkish as the economy remains strong.

Markets are pricing in a 36% chance of a hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. For September, the chance of a rate rise has risen above 70% from 29.1%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, climbed to a high of 101.51, the strongest level since May 2025.

“The U.S. dollar is still the preferred safe haven,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

“Obviously the momentum is on its side at the moment, but I think there is a lot priced in,” he said.

“We’ll have to see a correction in risk sentiment, one that’s broader rather than just the tech sector, or the market further ratcheting up its expectations for hikes, before the dollar can go very much higher from here.”

With reporting by Reuters

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:00pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 4:00pm

Market snapshotASX 200 +0.2% to 8,807 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.11 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.3%), KOSPI (+3.7%)
Spot gold: -0.9% to $US4,074/ounce 
Brent crude: -0.9% to $US76.42/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne 
Bitcoin: +0.7% to $US62,819

Prices current around 3:58pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:40pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:40pm

ASX hangs on to gains as Aussie touches 11-week low

The local share market is hanging on to most of its gains as it approaches the close.

The ASX 200 is up 0.3%, led by a rebound for tech stocks — particularly WiseTech Global, up 13.5%.

Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar is buying 69.1 US cents.

It earlier hit an 11-week low following the release of the inflation data.

“The ‘Aussie Battler’, as it is fondly known, has now dropped more than 5% from the 0.7277 high struck in early May,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote.

“In its May Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA had pencilled in a headline inflation peak at 4.8% around mid-year.

“Today’s softer headline print makes that peak look increasingly unlikely to materialise.

“At the same time, the trimmed mean is edging closer to the 3.8% level the Bank forecast for June, keeping core pressures firmly in focus.”

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:12pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:12pm

🎙️ An inflationary mixed bag

The latest CPI numbers showed headline inflation easing, thanks in part to falls in fuel prices.

But the trimmed figures — which help to measure underlying inflation — came in hotter than the previous month.

So, where does this leave the RBA on the question of ‘where to next’ on interest rates?

Meanwhile, there’s been a budget deal with Labor and the Greens. What do you need to know about it?

And why are some Australians noticing a spike in their electricity bills?

Carrington Clarke and I had a lot to chat about on ABC Business Daily. Take a listen!

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:48pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:48pm

Karl Stefanovic podcast completely independent: Nine

Media network Nine has distanced itself from the controversial podcast by Today show host Karl Stefanovic.

Stefanovic has had an interview with far-right extremist Tommy Robinson taken down from social media and podcast platforms.

Robinson is one of the most divisive anti-immigration voices in the United Kingdom, and he co-founded the far-right English Defence League movement.

The ABC contacted Channel Nine about the interview.

A spokesperson said the Karl Stefanovic Show was a completely independent production and that Channel Nine had no involvement in it, including in guest selection and other editorial processes.

Stefanovic, who is in the UK and not on Nine’s screens on Wednesday, was contacted for comment.

Shares in Nine Entertainment are down 1.9% this session.

You can read more from the Radio National Breakfast team:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:45pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:45pm

Market snapshotASX 200 +0.1% to 8,796 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.10 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-1.7%), KOSPI (-0.5%)
Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,063/ounce 
Brent crude: -0.9% to $US76.46/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne 
Bitcoin: +0.4% to $US62,610

Prices current around 2:45pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:36pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:36pm

‘Gas prices better start going down a lot faster’: Donald Trump

The price of Brent crude oil continues to fall.

Brent crude futures are down 1.1% today at $US76.27 per barrel.

But with ships starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — about 20% of the world’s oil moves through this narrow waterway off Iran — Donald Trump says prices aren’t coming down fast enough.

With a fragile peace deal being worked out, the US president has instructed his Department of Justice to look into oil companies for not lowering pump prices in line with falling crude costs.

“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged’,” Mr Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!”

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:13pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:13pm

What is trimmed mean inflation?

Headline inflation may have eased in May, but underlying inflation strengthened again, according to today’s ABS data.

The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, trimmed mean inflation, increased from an annual pace of 3.4% to 3.6%.

ABC News business reporter Gareth Hutchens digs deeper into the latest numbers.

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:04pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:04pm

Market snapshotASX 200 +0.1% to 8,798 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.07 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.1%), KOSPI (+1.1%)
Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,062/ounce 
Brent crude: -1.1% to $US76.27/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne 
Bitcoin: +0.3% to $US62,647

Prices current around 2:03pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:52pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:52pm

RBA likely to keep rates on hold in August: HSBC

Many economists are now predicting a rate hike when the RBA next meets in August.

While today’s headline inflation figure was lower than predicted at 4%, driven by a drop in energy costs, other data released by the ABS is concerning.

It shows that rising prices — particularly outside the energy sector — are impacting Australians in a major way.

But Paul Bloxham, chief economist for HSBC in Australia, NZ and Global Commodities, predicts that the RBA will hold off increasing interest rates at its next meeting, keeping in mind it won’t get together in July.

“Although there is some risk that the RBA could choose to hike again in August, due to still too high inflation in May and likely in Q2, we think a forward-looking approach will see them remaining on hold instead,” Mr Bloxham wrote in HSBC’s Global Investment Research.

“In short, although inflation is too high, as today’s [data] reminds us, the signs are that inflation will fall in the future — due to sharply lower oil prices and a weakening economy.”

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:27pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:27pm

WiseTech Global shares up by more than 15 per cent

It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks for WiseTech Global, but its shares are up sharply today.

They’ve jumped by more than 15%, despite the ongoing scandal around the company’s founder and executive chairman, Richard White.

WiseTech Global shares are trading at $33.47, up by $4.71.

That comes after a sharp drop earlier in the week.

WiseTech Global has been embroiled in governance and leadership controversies centred on Mr White after allegations about personal relationships, disclosure failures, and insider-trading investigations.

Mr White denies wrongdoing, no charges have been laid, and WiseTech says it is cooperating with investigations.

Here’s a look at the top and bottom movers on the ASX 200 midway through Wednesday’s session.

Top and bottom movers (Refinitiv.com)Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:07pm

Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:07pm

Australian share market flat midway through session

The ASX 200 initially reacted positively to the latest inflation figures.

But now it’s not so sure.

Having been up around 0.4% at one point after the 11:30am AEST release of the ABS data that showed the headline inflation rate at 4% last month, the ASX 200 is now basically trading flat.

It’s climbed just one measly point to be sitting at 8,788 just after 1pm AEST.

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