Graphic: Sharlene Rood/News24. Images: Umbreen Ibrahim Photography/Canva; Piyaset/Getty Images.

El Niño’s super threat

It’s been a sweltering summer in the northern hemisphere.

Europe has endured two deadly, record-shattering heat waves in a matter of weeks, with a third on its way.

Historically, the southern hemisphere hasn’t followed patterns from Europe, but climate change has changed that, bringing with it increased risk of extreme heat. Add to this an approaching El Niño, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has predicted could be the strongest of this century – one that could push global average temperatures to near-record levels in both 2026 and 2027.

An El Niño arises from a warming of surface sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. While it is a natural phenomenon, climate change means that El Niños are becoming stronger and more frequent.

The 2023-24 El Niño resulted in heavy rains and flooding in eastern Africa and severe drought across southern Africa. These extreme weather conditions damaged crops, reduced their yields, and degraded the soil. They resulted in significant increases in food prices across most of sub-Saharan Africa.

In this week’s Friday Briefing, News24’s climate journalist Ethan van Diemen examines which sectors could be impacted by a super El Niño. Read that analysis here.

Wandile Sihlobo, a presidential envoy on agriculture and land and chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, believes we don’t need to panic. He argues that years of La Niña rains have given South Africa a stronger buffer in the face of potential drought. You can read Sihlobo’s full argument here.

On the issue of El Niño events, we have an analysis from The Conversation reflecting on rising ocean temperatures and why this is cause for concern. Read the full analysis here.

We end this edition of Friday Briefing with a Q&A from Monde Mkalipi, spokesperson for the Road Traffic Infringement Agency, on AARTO, the new traffic fine system. Read the full interview here.