France’s allies are watching very closelypublished at 13:21 BST
13:21 BST
Katya Adler
BBC Europe editor reporting from Paris
Image source, AFP via Getty ImagesImage caption,
Le Pen was twice defeated by Emmanuel Macron in the presidential race, but Macron will not be running in 2027
Will she, won’t she?
Many of France’s European allies were watching the Court of Appeal so closely today.
Now they await Marine Le Pen’s appearance on French TV this evening to hear her decision as to whether she will indeed canvass to become France’s next president – or not.
It matters. France is the European Union’s second largest economy. A nuclear power with a significant military (by European standards).
The fact that Eurosceptic, traditionally Nato-unenthusiastic Le Pen and her protegee Jordan Bardella, who could run for president in her stead, are head and shoulders ahead of other possible presidential candidates in opinion polls is a huge worry in Brussels.
Image source, ReutersImage caption,
National Rally President Jordan Bardella pictured arriving at NR headquarters today
But there are a fair few European decision-makers who believe, if Jordan Bardella becomes France’s next president, he could be more ‘reasonable’ than Le Pen.
Others whisper that Bardella’s youth and political inexperience could also mean he’ll trip up and lose popularity between now and next year’s election.
Nine months is a very long time in politics.
A number of so-called “disruptor” parties across Europe, however – like Germany’s popular Alternative for Germany (AfD) – are thought likely to use today’s ruling by the Court of Appeal.
The ruling, which includes Le Pen having to wear an electronic tag, could be used to support their assertion that the establishment will use all means at their disposal, including the justice system, to try to crush the voice of the people.