A few flutters off the beaten track ahead of Thursday morning’s tee off.
The 2026 Open Championship tees off on Thursday and our golfing guru Martin Mathews has dived into the stack of special markets put together by Paddy ahead of an eye-catching few days at Royal Birkdale.
He’s expecting another fast start for Justin Rose, who did the job for us in the first round at Augusta, in one of his headline bets.
So, with tee time ticking ever closer, let’s see what Martin’s *ahem* going fore…
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Open Championship 2026 tips
First Round Leader – Justin Rose
First Round Leader – Joe Dean
Top American – JT Poston
Top Oceania – Cameron Smith
Top 20 Finish – Joaquin Niemman
First Round Leader – Justin Rose
In the Open Championship, more than any other Major, the weather forecast is key, specifically the wind. With breezes predicted to pick up throughout the day, Justin Rose who tees off at 9.36am, should have a good chance at being first round leader.
Rose has a history of making fast starts in Majors, and we benefitted from this last year at Augusta, when he bagged us a big return.
He arrives at Birkdale having finished third, tenth and 11th in the year’s three Majors to date, and there’ll be optimism in his camp that he can finally bag an elusive second Major at the venue where he announced himself to the world as a 17-year-old old amateur when finishing third back in 1998.
Whether he can fulfil that dream I’m not sure,, but I expect a strong week, and fancy him to get out of the gates quickly in his trademark manner.
First Round Leader – Joe Dean
I’m sticking to the AM starters for my second selection, Englishman Joe Dean, who tees off at 7.08am.
Dean will be the answer of quiz questions for years to come as he was the winner of the first ever ‘last chance qualifier’ at Birkdale on Monday to bag his place in the field.
The fact Dean won this event should not come as a huge surprise, as he arrived in fine form, with three top 12 finishes in his last four starts on the DP World Tour.
With the advantage of a competitive round already under his belt on the course, he can continue to ride his momentum from that early start.
Top American – JT Poston
With only one American player, Russell Henley, in our outright team there’s scope to get involved in the top American player market and I like JT Poston.
Poston had a low key start to 2026, but caught fire recently to produce a shock win at the Memorial Tournament. He followed that up with a fourth place finish at Shinnecock Hills in the US Open, a venue that certainly had some links characteristics to it.
That US Open effort could at first glance be seen as a fluke. However, if you add in the fact Poston finished fifth at the PGA Championship last year, it shows that when on song his game translates well to the biggest events.
What Poston lacks in length off the tee he makes up for in accuracy, so he should find himself on the fairway more than most. He also possesses a great touch on the greens.
With five each way places on offer in this market the 33yr old American makes plenty of appeal.
Top Oceania – Cameron Smith
I’m taking a chance on Cameron Smith. He memorably won the Open at St Andrews in 2022, before immediately defecting to LIV Golf. In case we didn’t already know, that win showed he’s at his best in firm fast links conditions.
Since joining LIV it’s fair to say the Aussie has seen a big slump in form, and in recent years he’s pretty much been a non-factor in the biggest events.
However, Smith started 2026 with a new coach, Claude Harmon III, and there’s been definite signs of improvement most notably when seventh at the PGA Championship in May.
Ahead of Smith in this market are Min Woo Lee and Adam Scott. Woo Lee is another Aussie who enjoys links golf, but keep in mind the conditions facing the field this week, which are perfect for Smith and the each way safety net could be key here.
Top 20 Finish – Joaquin Niemman
Joaquin Niemman has struggled to translate his success on LIV Golf to the Major stage, however, after the ignominy of receiving a two shot penalty at the US Open for unsportsmanlike conduct, he charged on to finish seventh. He’s since backed that up with a third and seventh on the DP World Tour.
Niemman’s Open record is poor, but his low ball flight is ideal for links golf, and I can see him building in his US Open performance and going strongly here.
Open Championship 2026 tips
First Round Leader – Justin Rose
First Round Leader – Joe Dean
Top American – JT Poston
Top Oceania – Cameron Smith
Top 20 Finish – Joaquin Niemman
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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