While the battle for the yellow jersey has seemed like a shoo-in for a certain Slovenian, the green jersey competition remains on a knife-edge with one week still remaining at the 2026 Tour de France.
Designed to reward the Tour’s ‘best sprinter’ – or ‘most consistent’ sprinter – the green jersey has been fixed on the shoulders of Mads Pedersen since the Tour returned to France on Stage 4. Since then, several characters have emerged as threats, with Biniam Girmay, Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier all within 70 points of the Danish leader after the conclusion of Stage 13.
The most formulaic of sprint stages might be out of the way, but we still have two stages that could end in a bunch sprint to the line. There are seven intermediate sprints on offer, all offering up to 25pts for the winner, and the race is yet to deal its cruel judgements and bad luck in the final week. So before we take all that in over the next week, let’s take a moment to analyse the four riders in the fight for the maillot vert.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Xavier Pereyron
After 12 stages, Mads Pedersen leads the points classification. He’s been in this position for some time now, having picked up the jersey after his win on Stage 4. That stage set the scene for Pedersen’s green campaign, which has been characterised by breakaway appearances and a focus on intermediate sprints.
The Dane has accrued 218pts through intermediate sprints alone, accounting for 61% of his total points haul. These sprints have been won from both the peloton and the breakaway, but mainly the latter, with Pedersen able to profit from his more versatile strength in the hills. That ability has also helped him stand out from the field, having been the only core sprinter to score points on the finishes of Stage 4 and Stage 9.
Purists might have something to say about Pedersen’s results on flatter sprints – his top result in a traditional bunch sprint is only seventh place, and he has picked up just 94pts from flat stages, less than the likes of Huub Artz and Milan Fretin. If you believe the green jersey should go to the best sprinter in the race, it’s hard to argue Pedersen fits that definition.
Regardless, the Dane is confident of his chances, telling reporters that ‘all the big points’ were off the table after Stage 12’s bunch sprint. Pedersen will also feel optimistic in regard to the two remaining chances for a sprint in Voiron and Paris. Both suit the Dane, with the chance for a Classics-like finale on the last day of racing a big opportunity to secure the jersey if he hasn’t already.
Mads Pedersen overview
Current point haul: 377pts (1st)
Intermediate sprint total: 238pts
Stage finish point total: 139pts
Mads Pedersen’s sprint stage results so far
Stage 5: 7th
Stage 6: 9th
Stage 7: 12th
Stage 11: 11th
Stage 12: 9th
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Xavier Pereyron
While this has been Jasper Philipsen’s poorest Tour performance since moving to Alpecin-Premier Tech, the Belgian isn’t far off the green jersey. In fact, he’s around 50pts behind Pedersen.
He’s yet to pick up a stage victory though, and he hasn’t finished even above third place in a final sprint. It’s a surprising turn for the Belgian, who has been a reliable force at previous Tours. His team have also been riding on the front as well and delivering him to the sprint with open air in front of him, so Philipsen’s underperformance has really blindsided many.
That said, he has been up there in the intermediate sprints. He’s picked up 48% of his total haul at the intermediates, which has kept his points tally afloat. However, he’ll need to continue picking up intermediate points during the race’s final week, but that might be tough when pitted against the sprinters more comfortable in the hills like Girmay and Pedersen.
Alpecin-Premier Tech have nothing to lose though. They have no real objectives when it comes to stage wins – apart from a potential Mathieu van der Poel Paris victory a la Wout van Aert – so the team should go all-in for their sprinting talisman. The intermediate sprints have been placed early on many mountain stages to prevent all the glory going to the breakaways, so there are a lot of points still up for grabs, with each intermediate providing up to 25 points.
Jasper Philipsen overview
Current point haul: 336pts (2nd)
Intermediate sprint total: 161pts
Stage finish point total: 175pts
Jasper Philipsen’s sprint stage results so far
Stage 5: 5th
Stage 6: 5th
Stage 7: 4th
Stage 11: 3rd
Stage 12: 3rd
Biniam Girmay (NSN Cycling)
A.S.O./Charly López
The winner of the green jersey in 2024 is back in the mix for the points classification. Now on a new team in NSN Cycling, Biniam Girmay is just 44pts behind Pedersen. In other words, just one bad day separates him from the green jersey.
He hasn’t been mentioned all that much, but Girmay has been riding a pretty good Tour de France. The Eritrean has been consistent in the flat sprints so far in this race. In fact, he’s never finished lower than sixth place, with two appearances on the stage podium so far in this year’s Tour. That consistency has yielded its fair share of points at stage finales, translating to a total of 177pts from finishes alone.
Girmay has the third largest sum of intermediate sprint points, with those accounting for 47% of the Eritrean’s total haul. Just like Pedersen, Girmay has been willing to get in the breakaway. He’s strong enough to weather some hills, and the stage finishes in Voiron and Paris suit his Classics sensibilities too. In that respect, we could still have a fight for the maillot vert right down to the final day.
NSN Cycling don’t have any GC objectives, so they can go all out for green, while Lidl-Trek might have to make some sacrifices to support Juan Ayuso’s bid for a podium. If that starts to take over the team’s priorities, Girmay might be able to capitalise at the intermediate sprint points.
Biniam Girmay overview
Current point haul: 333pts (3rd)
Intermediate sprint total: 156pts
Stage finish point total: 177pts
Biniam Girmay’s sprint stage results so far
Stage 5: 6th
Stage 6: 3rd
Stage 7: 2nd
Stage 11: 6th
Stage 12: 4th
Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
Xavier Pereyron
Tim Merlier has been the best sprinter at this race, there’s no doubt about it. He’s picked up three of the five bunch sprints and has been the only fast man to win on multiple occasions so far at this year’s race.
If the green jersey were judged purely on stage finishes, Merlier would be leading the pack by some way. The Belgian has picked up 258pts at the finish line, which has been topped up by some recent poaches at the intermediate sprints. Those mid-day bonuses have topped up his point haul by 49pts, which is a slim 15% of Merlier’s total point tally.
If another stage ends in a bunch sprint, Merlier is the most likely to pick up the maximum 50pts on offer at the finish line. However, there are very few (if any) stages suited to the Quick-Step rider, who is easily the poorest climber of the four contesting this classification
In that case, he’ll have to go all-out for the intermediates, which hasn’t always been the natural course of action for the Belgian, who’s been averse to chasing points in the past.
On the whole, Merlier feels like the biggest victim of the parcours this year. If there were a couple more stages suited to the pure sprinters, I’m sure he’d be in green in Paris.
Tim Merlier overview
Current point haul: 307pts (4th)
Intermediate sprint total: 49pts
Stage finish point total: 258pts
Tim Merlier’s sprint stage results so far
Stage 5: 3rd
Stage 6: 1st
Stage 7: 1st
Stage 11: 15th
Stage 12: 1st