Will Tadej Pogačar win a sixth Tour de France? – What can we expect from the 2027 Grand Boucle

The men’s race will begin on Friday, July 2, a day earlier than usual, to give the riders and race caravan an extra rest (travel) day on Monday to head to France via plane and ferry to northern France.

The full 2027 Tour route will be unveiled in late October but there have already been some leaks and rumours about stages.

According to Ouest France, the Cotentin peninsula in Normandy is expected to host the ‘grand retour’ in France, with stage 5 likely to be a loop around the port of Cherbourg.

The Tour will then head south, perhaps with a visit to the cycling hot-bed of Brittany and the coast, before tackling the Pyrenees first, perhaps as early as the second weekend.

The Alps are again expected to host the decisive mountains, with Le Dauphiné Libéré suggesting a stage will visit the Côte de Domancy to prelude the UCI Super World Championships in Sallanches later in 2027.

Don’t tell Pogačar but the Col de Granon is a candidate to host the Tour de France again, five years after Vingegaard cracked him on the climb to win the Tour. The Col de la Loze via Courchevel could also return, with Tignes and La Plagne also keen to host stages.

There is no sign that l’Alpe d’Huez will return in 2027 and so other Alpine finishes could face the overcrowding and safety issues of modern-day Tour hooligans and over-zealous spectators. Hopefully ASO will be far better at controlling the crowds and so protecting the riders.

The success of the Montemartre circuits surely means the hilly climbs of central Paris will return in 2027 and beyond. Three laps of the cobbled climb of Rue Lepic seem to be the perfect number to balance the battle between baroudeur like Mathieu van der Poel and the sprinters who once dominated on the Champs Élysées.

This time last year many of us thought Pogačar’s air of sadness and apparent weakness in the final week of the Tour was an indication the Pogačar era was about to end. How wrong we were.

He later revealed that he had banged his knee and was scared he might not even reach Paris. This year Pogačar seemed happier than ever – he won five stages and gifted at least two others. Pogačar may not be improving physiologically but he remains seemingly unbeatable.

It is more and more likely that Pogačar will ride this year’s Vuelta a España to try to complete his Grand Tour triptych. That would allow him to focus on Paris-Roubaix and the Tour de France in 2027. He has a contract with UAE until 2030 but there have been signs that Pogačar could decide to retire after the Los Angeles Olympic Games in the summer of 2028.

That ominously means he could win two further editions of the Tour and set a new record of seven victories.

Pogačar’s dominance is boring for some but there are green shoots and early signs of who might emerge in the post-Pogačar world or even be able to challenge him if he begins to fade in the final years of his decade of dominance.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

The Dane got back to his very best when he won the Giro d’Italia and seemed on track to at least challenge Pogačar.

His hopes collapsed when he blew up on the higher slopes and descent of the Col du Tourmalet and then cruelly ended when he crashed out on stage 15.

Vingegaard will be 30 next summer and so there is a real chance that he may have missed his chance to be the one who ends Pogačar’s reign.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

The Belgian proved many of his doubters wrong by finishing second this year and will rightly target the Tour in years to come.

Evenepoel revealed that he lost four kilogrammes during his long Tour training and it clearly made a difference in the mountains. He finished 5:00 down on Pogačar in Paris but can perhaps start to reduce the gap in 2027.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

The 22-year-old Mexican made his Tour debut but proved his talents with third on the podium. He had the protective support of Pogačar but showed he can handle the pressure and demands of the Tour.

Del Toro shares the same agent as Pogačar and their unity and friendship was perhaps a way for them to both fight off the arrival of Paul Seixas in 2028. If Del Toro and Seixas remain rivals rather than UAE teammates, they will surely become the Tour rivals for the post-Pogcacar era.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

The French teenager was the youngest debutant at the Tour for years, at age 19, and proved he is a generational talent by finishing fourth. He was 11:56 down on Pogačar but was only 24 seconds down on Del Toro until cracking on the second stage to L’Alpe d’Huez.

Seixas faces some big decisions about his future team in August but whoever he rides he will be a Tour contender and also a French Tour contender.

2026 indicated the future for other GC contenders and it will be fascinating to see if Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) decides to target the Tour in 2027 and can perfect his preparation. Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) was again the Tour supercombatif and could surely put up a GC challenge if he can enjoy a season without illness and injury.

Lidl-Trek face major change for 2027 but Juan Ayuso will have to live-up to the hype about his GC talents, otherwise Mattias Skjelmose will openly push for a Tour leadership role. We’ll also be watching Florian Lipowitz’s return, Lenny Martinez’ development and Jarno Widar (Lotto Intermarché) in 2027, plus the long-term development of Lorenzo Finn (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and his possible debut in the 2028 Tour.

Pogačar has dominated the battle for the yellow jersey but fortunately the other jerseys have created interesting racing. We can only hope for the same in 2027.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) fought for every intermediate sprint to win the green points jersey and is the favourite for 2027. The big Dane can attack on hilly terrain and with the new points scales, a pure sprinter will have to win four stages and score points on other stages.

Carapaz won the polka-dot mountains jersey with a late charge in the Alps. Pogačar has dominated the distinctive jersey but rarely worn it. Hopefully ASO will shake up the mountains classification for 2027 like they did with the points classification for 2026, to entice more mountain attacks and reward the pure climbers.

There is talk of budget caps, calls to reduce team sizes to just six riders instead of eight to break Pogačar and UAE’s dominance but there will surely be 23 teams of eight riders in the 2027 Tour peloton.

The 18 WorldTour teams are likely to retain their places even if there are concerns about Picnic-PostNL’s WorldTour status for 2027 and a host of other teams are looking for new title sponsors.

Some huge sponsors could invest in the sport but the likes of Movistar, Jayco AlUla, Visma-Lease a Bike and NSN are all desperate for extra funding.

Pinarello-Q36.5, Tudor and Cofidis are likely to again secure the automatic wildcard places to the 2027 Tour de France. TotalEnergies are looking for a new sponsor and if they fail, it could open the Tour doors to Unibet Rose Rockets, despite ASO conservative attitude and clear dislike for the young team.

We will know the 2027 Tour route in late October and the 2027 Tour teams early in the season. The Tour starts on July 2 in Edinburgh, as another blank page to fill with great racing, drama and discussions about Pogačar’s greatness and his rivals.