The oil market is mostly in balance in the first half of the year. The first quarter showed a small inventory draw, but the second quarter more than offset this with a gain. It is the second half of the year that is going to alter the situation. Even though liquids demand is seen as 1.4 million barrels per day higher in the second half from the first, supply is expected to be 2.8 million b/d higher — of which 1.4 million b/d is forecast to be Opec-plus crude oil, which takes the Opec-plus average increase for the year to 1.1 million b/d. Without the producer group unwinding its voluntary production cuts, the market would have been fairly flat. Now the surplus for full-year 2025 is expected to come in at 800,000 b/d. And that will grow in 2026 when Opec-plus is expected to add another 1.2 million b/d.
