The latest data from the UK Health Security Agency has fuelled concerns that the long-anticipated next wave may finally be coming
Science & Environment Correspondent
Concerns about a new Covid wave are mounting after positive tests for the virus among hospital patients jumped by nearly a third in a fortnight.
The proportion of hospital patients with respiratory symptoms testing positive for the virus jumped from 5.8 per cent on 26 July to 7.6 per cent on 10 August – a 31 per cent increase in 15 days, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Known as the “positivity rate”, this infection level is much higher than that found among the general public, as hospital patients with symptoms are not a representative sample of wider society.
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Scientists caution that changes in the numbers over time cannot be taken as a precise indicator of broader trends – which is much better established through widespread random testing outside hospitals, in the general population.
But it is seen as a decent indicator of wider trends and comes against a backdrop of concerns about rising Covid infections.
Immunity from vaccines and previous infections has waned, while at the same time, a highly contagious new Covid variant XPG, or Stratus, is spreading.
As a result, experts say the sharp rise in positive tests inside hospitals suggests the country is facing a new wave of infections.
“We are looking like we are on the cusp of a summer wave – which would be in keeping with previous summers,” Simon Williams, a behavioural scientist and public health expert at Swansea University, told The i Paper.
“However, how much and to what extent we will see rises remains to be seen – ‘waves’ are much smaller and flatter than in early years of Covid.”
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, told The i Paper “the rise in Covid positivity is a concern”. He added that it “reinforces the fact that the virus is still circulating and is capable of spreading”.
“A particular concern is the impact on infection levels as people return to work and school after the holiday season and the effect of cooler weather,” Young said.
“This coupled with new virus variants and restricted access to free vaccines over the autumn period is worrying.”
Nearly 13 million fewer people will be offered an autumn booster for Covid this year, fuelling concerns we could be heading for a new wave of the virus.
The Government said that pensioners aged 65 to 74 will no longer be able to go for a free jab.
Meanwhile, 6.9 million people in “clinical risk” groups such as pregnant women and people with chronic heart and liver disease will also be excluded for the first time.
However, Professor Young said he is encouraged by the fact that “hospitalisation rates are low” in the latest UKHSA data.
Hospitalisation rates refer to people who are admitted to hospital due to Covid – as opposed to the ‘positivity’ rate which refers to the number of people in hospital for all reasons.
The latest positivity rate of 7.6 per cent remains lower than it has been for much of the pandemic despite the recent sharp rise – but it is much higher than it was in January, when it was 2.2 per cent.
However, it hit 16.6 per cent last July and 14.6 per cent last October, according to UKHSA data.
Professor Sheena Cruickshank, of Manchester University, says “although the latest positivity rate seems a jump from the previous week it’s still at a very low level”.
But she cautions that “when schools come back and university terms re-start its possible that activity may get higher as more people mix indoors”.
“We are seeing a smallish wave in the States and whether something similar happens here later in the autumn remains to be seen,” she told The i Paper.