This is despite these operators only comprising of just over a quarter of sites, the Lumina Intelligence Pub & Bar Market Report has said.
This growth is being driven by their scale and investment capital, enabling them to enhance and revamp estates, including premium offerings and pubs with rooms.
The report highlighted this focused investment will provide competitive advantage and profitability in the short term, potentially making it harder for smaller, independent players to keep pace.
Mounting pressures
Operators continue to face mounting pressures from escalating costs, which are squeezing “razor-thin margins” and are expected to lead to a net closure of around eight pubs per week in 2025.
In response, operators are enacting extreme cost-saving measures, such as restructuring trading hours, reducing workforce and rationalising estates through strategic disposals and consolidation.
Despite these challenges it forecasts the market will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 1.9% from 2024F-2027F, reaching £24.9bn but this is trailing behind the total eating out market’s 2.8%. The UK pub sector is expected to be on track to hit £25.7bn by 2028F.
It predicted net pub closures would slow significantly from 2026 and potentially be offset by 2027, signalling a shift from contraction to stability.
Driving growth
Interestingly, the report revealed operators are increasingly driving growth beyond traditional food and drink sales with activities such as event-led programming, accommodation (pubs with rooms), and “third-space” concepts like co-working.
Future growth will be underpinned by premiumisation, data-led innovation, and diversified formats, along with support from domestic tourism, major sporting events, and legislative reforms, the report highlighted.
Operators who adapt to changing lifestyles, such as the shift towards earlier, lower-tempo socialising, and leverage social media as a discovery tool, will gain a competitive edge, the report concluded.