Who will win the 2027 Tour de France? The favourites for the yellow jersey following the route reveal

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The 2027 Tour de France route was presented on Thursday, and the race looks markedly different from the 2026 parcours, with an increase in time trial kilometres and fewer big mountain stages lying between the British Grand Départ and the grand finale in Paris.

Nevertheless, we expect a familiar cast of contenders to line up in Edinburgh on July 2, including the five-time champion Tadej Pogačar, his longtime rival, Jonas Vingegaard, and France’s great GC hope, Paul Seixas.

We’ve looked through the big names to put together our first speculative ‘power ranking’ ahead of the 2027 Tour de France.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Tour de France race director Christian Prudhomme may have questioned whether Tadej Pogačar will be the same rider following his Vuelta a España crash and injuries, drawing a comparison with Eddy Merckx’s 1969 crash.

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But unlike Prudhomme, who has a vested interest in generating attention for his race, we have no reason to doubt that the Slovenian will recover and be back to his best next season.

As such, Pogačar remains the overwhelming favourite to win Tour title number six next July. The route may feature an increase in time trial kilometres, which will favour the next man on our list, but Pogačar has won the last three Tours by an average of 5:42.

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We’re hoping that the new route means there’s more suspense than this summer, when the race for yellow was over after six days. But Pogačar is the favourite until proven otherwise.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

World and European time trial champion Remco Evenepoel looks to be the big winner from the 2027 Tour de France route reveal. 71 time trial kilometres is the most on any Tour route since 2012, and 12km more than the 2024 Tour.

That, combined with the sparse number of tough summit finishes (just two – the Grand Colombier and Col du Portet), means the route is the best-suited to Evenepoel’s abilities of any Grand Tour he’s raced.

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At the moment, a shot at Tadej Pogačar still looks well out of reach, but Evenepoel’s dominant time trial – he won his fourth world title by almost a minute from Filippo Ganna last month – means he may well take minutes on everyone else. That may be enough to have the beating of Jonas Vingegaard and climb onto the second step of the podium in Paris once more.

There has been talk of Evenepoel returning to the Giro d’Italia next May, but surely he won’t turn down the chance to take on a Tour so well-suited to his style?

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Two-time Tour winner Jonas Vingegaard looks to be the biggest loser from the route reveal, with the 2027 parcours very much veering away from his favoured terrain. The Dane prefers longer multi-mountain stages, days which are in short supply here, and then there are the two flat time trials which will hardly have sparked any excitement when they were unveiled on Thursday.

A host of punchier and mid-mountain stages such as those to Le Creusot, Sallanches, Les Saisies, and Mende all favour the more explosive Pogačar. Both the Slovenian and Remco Evenepoel will gain time on Vingegaard in the 71km of time trials, too (remember in Caen at the 2025 Tour, where he lost over a minute to both in just 33km).

Could Vingegaard make up the time lost in the time trials in the mountains, on the Grand Colombier and the Col du Portet? That’s likely several minutes to make up on Evenepoel across those combined 33.4km of summit finishes.

“Compared to last year, I count fewer summit finishes, and in my opinion, there could have been more,” said Visma head of racing Marc Reef. Is the route enough of a turn-off for Vingegaard to instead focus on a Giro title defence? Probably not, but he’s certainly far from the favourite.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

The 2027 Tour de France route isn’t exactly built for France’s new GC hope Paul Seixas, though he won’t necessarily dislike it. Sure, there aren’t many mountain stages for him to attack, but that’s true of everyone else here.

The 20-year-old showed in his debut Tour de France this year that he’s already strong enough to battle with the very biggest names, even if he’s not quite on the level of Pogačar, Evenepoel, Vingegaard, and Isaac del Toro just yet. Next year, though? He should be stronger still.

He’s proven that he’s strong in the mountains, he can compete with the best in the punchy hills, and (see his third place in the Worlds time trial) that he’s very capable in flat time trials, even if he should shed a chunk of time to Evenepoel in them.

For now, we’ll slot him in fourth place on our list, assuming some level of progression year on year, and with Del Toro working for Pogačar. Could a podium place be in his sights, though?

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Mexican racer Isaac del Toro finished in third place last year in the white jersey of best young rider while supporting Tadej Pogačar to yet another Tour victory. He was the Slovenian’s key lieutenant while also benefiting from his support to ride into that eventual podium spot.

Will they reform the same partnership next summer? Or will Del Toro instead prioritise going for a Grand Tour victory of his own at the Giro or Vuelta?

That remains to be seen, with the calendars of him and João Almeida yet to be determined. If he’s back at the Tour, then Del Toro should slot back in somewhere among the third- to fifth- strongest GC riders on the startlist.

Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Will Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe continue with their two-pronged leadership approach at next year’s Tour de France? Maybe not, if some media rumours are to be believed. Given the route of next year’s race, that might make sense, given it clearly favours time trial specialist Remco Evenepoel over German racer Florian Lipowitz.

Lipowitz is hardly a weak time triallist himself, and he has of course finished on the Tour’s final podium before, but perhaps a shot at overall victory at the Giro d’Italia might be in order.

If Lipowitz does head to the Tour, though, he slots in well inside our top 10 here, even if there are fewer high mountain stages where he excels in comparison to previous years.

Enric Mas (Movistar)

When Tadej Pogačar crashed out of the Vuelta a España in August, Movistar leader Enric Mas showed another dimension to his racing as he took over the red jersey of race leader and defended it for the final two weeks of the race to take overall victory.

Mas had previously finished on the podium of the Spanish Grand Tour four times in his career but had never managed to break through to that next level. Will his triumph, and the rare show of attacking riding we saw, have unlocked another level in the 31-year-old?

Mas has raced seven Tours de France, finishing fifth and sixth at the 2020 and 2021 races. In a crowded GC field, he might slot in around there again, with his Vuelta win and the confidence gained from that lifting him in our ranking above a host of other strong competitors.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Dane Mattias Skjelmose might head to the Tour de France as part of a three-pronged GC lineup at Lidl-Trek next year, though surely one of him, Felix Gall, and Juan Ayuso will instead prioritise the Giro d’Italia.

Regardless of the German team’s plans for the 2027 Grand Tours, it’s he who figures to be their strongest option for Tour de France leadership next summer. He finished sixth overall in July, and had the better of Ayuso, who seemed to struggle this season, while Gall’s lack of time trial strength will surely hold him back.

Skjelmose is the best of the three against the clock, as evidenced by his third place in Thonon-les-Bains at the Tour. Barring any surprise, he looks the favourite to be Lidl-Trek leader next July. Can he raise his level again and challenge for the podium? It seems a bit of a reach right now, but contention for a top-five place could be on the cards.

Thymen Arensman (Netcompany Ineos)

The team has a few options for leadership next July, including Oscar Onley (more below), and Carlos Rodríguez, should the Spaniard rediscover his form. The best option, given the route, may well be Dutch rider Thymen Arensman.

Should he head to the Tour, Arensman would line up as one of the very strongest time trial riders among the GC contenders, and the 71km of TTs on offer represent significant time gains. He has four Grand Tour top-10 finishes to his name, including a fourth at this year’s Giro, and took 12th at the 2025 Tour. He’d be more than capable of scoring a top 10 in Paris, given next year’s route.

Felix Gall (Lidl-Trek)

Like several others on our list, we’ll have to wait and see what Felix Gall is planning for 2027. The Austrian climber will be on a new team next year, having swapped Decathlon CMA CGM for Lidl-Trek and a potential leadership trio at the Tour.

Surely one of the three – Skjelmose, Gall, and Juan Ayuso – will instead head to the Giro as a sole leader, though. It depends on the Italian race’s route, but could it be Gall? After all, two long time trials are hardly his forte (though the Giro also looks set to feature heavy time trial kilometres).

Gall is a rider who is at his best in the high mountains, tackling long ascents on multi-mountain stages. As we have seen, they are in short supply in this Tour de France. There’s still plenty of opportunity to gain time in the climbs, but the route isn’t best-suited to Gall.

Best of the rest

Reigning mountain classification champion Richard Carapaz will be with a new team next year, having joined NSN. The team doesn’t have a great record of hiring big-name riders in their 30s, but there’s little in the Ecuadorian’s riding style that suggests he’s heading there to ride around cashing cheques.

While Thymen Arensman may be better suited to the route, Netcompany Ineos also has Oscar Onley – a fourth-place finisher here in 2025 – on board as a Tour co-leadership option. A repeat of that result looks challenging, but both he and Arensman should be well in the mix for a top-10 finish.

As noted earlier, Juan Ayuso currently looks the third-strongest of Lidl-Trek’s GC options at the Tour. His new team expected more than seventh place out of him, and perhaps he’ll do that in 2027. For now, though, he has slid down our list.

A year on from his Vuelta podium, Tom Pidcock raced to ninth overall this summer. It was his best result to date at the Tour, but will he continue to target the general classification?

Both Tobias Halland Johanessen and Lenny Martinez have raced into the top 10 in the past two seasons. Neither are top favourites for a high placing next summer, but they’ve been there and done that, and so should be in consideration for a top-10 spot again.

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