We’ve now had a few days to digest the 2027 Tour de France route.
Revealed in Paris last week, the parcours has stirred up some strong opinions. Most of this has been attributed to the 71km of time-trialling, the longest used at a Tour since 2012, and the small number of mountaintop finishes. In fact, there are just three, coming at the Grand Colombier, Les Saisies and the Col du Portet.
Now we know where the Tour de France is going next year, it’s time to reach for the crystal ball. In this wildly early list of prognostics, we’ll predict how each of the 21 stages will go, plus who will be the winner of all four jerseys and the final GC podium. Before you read on, check out how I got on in last year’s way-too-early Tour predictions.
Who’s going to be racing the Tour de France 2027?
Xavier Pereyron
Time to make our first punts, because only a handful of riders have explicitly said that they’ll be on the start line in Edinburgh next July.
Among those confirmed is Tadej Pogačar, who revealed a busy racing 2027 programme last week. His big goals will be the Tour de France and World Championships, which come straight after in the French Alps.
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe have insinuated that Remco Evenepoel will be there in Scotland next July. That’s hardly a surprise, given this parcours is said to be the most Evenepoel-friendly in years. Jonas Vingegaard is also expected to make his return after crashing out in the Alps last summer. Wout van Aert is likely to be on the roster, but Britain’s Matt Brennan’s inclusion is TBC for now, even after his five stage victories at the Vuelta this autumn.
Paul Seixas has sent out mixed signals this week after appearing on a French podcast, on which he suggested that the Tour isn’t certain for his 2027 schedule, while Italian newspaper Gazzetta dello Sport suggests that Seixas could be one of a few top-name riders to pick the Giro in 2027. Among them is Isaac de Toro, who sailed onto the podium on Tour debut ahead of Seixas.
In terms of sprinters, it’s a little more hazy. Tim Merlier is almost guaranteed after his comments at last week’s route presentation, 2025 green jersey winner Jonathan Milan has been tipped for a Tour comeback, and 2023 green jersey winner Jasper Philipsen seems a shoo-in for the 2027 race. However, it’s unclear whether Decathlon CMA CGM will send stage winner Olav Kooij to the Tour after Seixas proved his leader status last year.
Stage 1
Xavier Pereyron
Who’d have thought that Carlisle would end up being the most pivotal place on the sprinting map in 2027?
Yes, the Cumbrian town once home to the world’s largest stained glass window will soon be the centre of the sprinting universe as it welcomes the finish of Stage 1. With little elevation south of Midlothian, the sprinters have been handed a real chance of getting to battle for the race’s first yellow jersey.
There are always a few hiccups on a Tour’s opening stage. Think Opi-Omi, the GreenEdge bus getting stuck, the informal neutralisation in Nice and Mark Cavendish’s crash in front of PM David Cameron. Something is bound to go wrong, so a scrappy sprint is likely.
Cyclist’s prediction: Olav Kooij
Stage 2
Xavier Pereyron
After a night’s rest and a hefty fry-up in Cumbria, the peloton’s nerves will no doubt be settled
I’ve heard from those who’ve recced the route that the section through the Lancashire hills is more demanding than expected. That could catch a few out, but I reckon everything will come together by the time the race enters Liverpool and sprints down the Strand, right by the statues dedicated to the city’s Fab Four.
If you couldn’t tell then, I reckon this is a paint-by-numbers sprint.
Call up the Belgians because I predict a battle between Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen. In recent years, Merlier has looked the stronger of the two.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tim Merlier
Stage 3
Xavier Pereyron
Wales will be the scene of the race’s first real test, and Christian Prudhomme has been quite excited about the prospect of an early GC battle in the valleys of South Wales.
However, the bulk of the stage’s real tough climbs come a long way out from the finish line in what will be a very long day out. Sure, this could produce a Liège-Bastogne-Liège kind of scenario, but it’s had to replicate a one-day race in an event spanning three weeks, especially when everyone is fresh and up for the fight.
That said, it’s hard to tell whether this will end up resembling a Classic or more a reduced bunch sprint. Caerphilly Mountain has a mixed hit rate at grounding the peloton down at the Tour of Britain, so it might act as more of a filter than a launch pad.
In that case, it’ll be someone who can sprint well after a few hills. Cue our first Van der Poel vs Van Aert battle of the 2027 race.
Cyclist’s prediction: Wout van Aert
Stage 4
Xavier Pereyron
After boking in a paper bag aboard a P&O ferry, the peloton will return to France after a rest day in Normandy.
Wind could be an issue here on what could be a deceptively bumpy arrival. On a false-flat finish like this, you’d like to pick Mads Pedersen, but the Dane’s participation isn’t guaranteed for the moment.
This could really go the way of any tough sprinter. Hey, it could even go to Tadej Pogačar. Crazier things have happened.
Cyclist’s prediction: Anthony Turgis
Stage 5
Xavier Pereyron
The Côte de Cadoudal is getting a bit overshadowed in all the parcours discourse, but this is a staple of Breton cycling. It has featured in the Tour de France on several occasions, welcomed the European Road Championships and hosts Coupe de France one-day races every year. In fact, this is the only hill outside the Alps, Vosges or Pyrenees to host both a Tour de France and Tour de France Femmes stage finish.
The climb will be tackled on two occasions during the final 15km to guarantee splits.
When the women visited in 2025, the top ten was split between GC contenders, hardy sprinters and Classics specialists. I suspect it’ll be similar when the men arrive next July. However, given the likeness to the nearby Mûr-de-Bretagne, I’m going to back Mathieu van der Poel, who won atop that climb back in 2021.
Cyclist’s prediction: Mathieu van der Poel
Stage 6
Xavier Pereyron
This is quite possibly the most generic sprint stage you could find.
The nerves of the first few days would have settled and there’s a near-zero chance the breakaway goes all the way. There’s even the chance that no rider even bothers to go up the road.
It’ll be up to the best sprinters in the game to fight it out between them, and I believe Merlier is the top dog right now.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tim Merlier
Stage 7
Xavier Pereyron
We’ve not had an ITT as long as this in the Tour’s opening week since the days of Armstrong, Ullrich and blood transfusions.
This 38km stage is as flat as a syringe needle. There aren’t any major obstacles, so it really should favour the specialists, four-time world champ Remco Evenepoel for example.
Maybe Pippo Ganna’s new Trek rig will be help him break Remco’s stranglehold on this discipline. Similarly, a storm could be afoot once the rainbow jersey rolls off, handing early starters a bit of an advantage. Who knows?
But what I do know is that Evenepoel is the world’s best time-trialist – no question about it. He’ll take the stage and presumably the yellow jersey with it unless a breakaway manages to gain a handful of time in Wales or Normandy.
Cyclist’s prediction: Remco Evenepoel
Stage 8
Xavier Pereyron
With Evenepoel now in yellow, the race has settled down. That’ll give the breakaway the ideal opportunity to go out in search of their first big chance in this Tour de France.
This region, the Morvan, last hosted a stage in 2021, on a profile similar in both topography and length. On that occasion, the breakaway made it all the way to the end, with Matej Mohorič victorious.
I reckon the same will happen in 2027, but with another breakaway expert victorious. Quinn Simmons deserves a Grand Tour stage win at some point soon, but Ben Healy seems to roll out of his cave every two years. He thrives in years with odd numbers, and I reckon EF will be hungry for a stage win at their first Tour without Richard Carapaz.
Cyclist’s prediction: Ben Healy
Stage 9
Xavier Pereyron
After moving east through metropolitan France, the peloton will meet their first serious mountains on Stage 9.
Now, the Tour’s opening mountain stage hasn’t gone the way of a breakaway since 2023, and even then the break included Felix Gall and Jai Hindley. History therefore dictates that the peloton will work towards winning this stage. Remember: teams will be fired up to unleash some wrath in the mountains, and everyone will be alert and feeling fresher than ever.
In that sense, we’ll get our first questions answered. Some expected names will drop down the standings, but a group of around ten or so will be there to contest the stage win during the final kilometre. It’ll be up to whoever has the best kick, but that seems to be Tadej Pogačar on paper.
Incredibly, this would therefore be Pogačar’s first stage victory in trade team colours since the beginning of the 2024 edition and somehow just his second ever.
I’ll be honest, the Grand Colombier hasn’t been a particularly decisive climb in recent Tours. I suspect gaps will be small over the top and Evenepoel remains in yellow.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 10
Xavier Pereyron
If you’re looking for a stage where Pogačar gains three minutes, this is the one.
How so? Well, I reckon he’ll lift off on the Plateau d’Assy after his team put on the pressure over the previous climbs. The Slovenian is likely to know Domancy like the back of his hand, given he’ll be hungry to win the rainbow jersey when the climb takes centre stage a month later. Cresting that peak solo, he’ll have done enough to put himself in the overall lead, reversing the losses in week one’s time-trial.
All of a sudden, the Tour will start to feel a lot more familiar.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 11
Xavier Pereyron
After the Pogcineration, Stage 11 will be a lot tamer as the GC wound-licking begins.
The early position of the Colombière and Croix Fry climbs suggests there will be a fierce battle for the breakaway. Furthermore, the big gap between the opening climbs and the final pair of hors catégorie tests gives me the idea that the peloton will sit up and try to regroup before the stage’s final sequence.
Since this one is going the way of the breakaway, we’ll begin to see who the real candidates are for the polka-dot jersey. I suspect they’ll be a mix of GC guys who ran into trouble in Wales, or those who are allergic to an aero TT position. So, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Lenny Martinez and Santiago Buitrago, your time has come.
In the group of favourites, Pogačar will spring off the front on the final climb, with Vingegaard in pursuit and Evenepoel dangling somewhere further behind. This’ll open up a fierce GC battle between the Dane and the Belgian, which is set to rumble on throughout this Tour.
Cyclist’s prediction: Lenny Martinez
Stage 12
Xavier Pereyron
We could have had an Alpine stage here, but we dodge every col possible in favour of heading to the fringes of Provence.
Valence has hosted many a sprint stage over the past decade or so. Last time, it was Jonathan Milan, but the honours this time will be passed to Jasper Philipsen, who often manages to weather the mountains better than most sprinters.
Cyclist’s prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 13
Xavier Pereyron
We continue the sprinting theme as the riders tackle what will be the flattest day since Stage 6. You’d think this would make it easy, as this looks like the most humdrum transitional stage ever, but this part of the world can be pretty windy.
in fact, the final part of this stage will be wholly exposed to the elements. The crosswinds will strike, and some fast men and GC guys will be caught out.
As the kings of crosswinds, Soudal Quick-Step (which by then will be Soudal Safety Jogger) will pile on the pressure and deliver Tim Merlier to yet another stage victory.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tim Merlier
Stage 14
Xavier Pereyron
Christian Prudhomme has been on record saying that Stage 14 is his favourite of the Tour. I’m inclined to agree with him, as I have no idea how this is going to pan out.
The 4,000m of elevation gain suggests that this could be really quite attritional, although none of the climbs are real blockbuster names. However, these lesser-known central mountains have often been underestimated, leading to quite exciting racing.
That said, I think this will go the way of a breakaway, but only just.
Expect a fierce battle at both ends of the race: the breakaway and the peloton. As for the escapees, the group will be filled with riders trying to flip their fortunes around in this Tour de France.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tobias Halland Johannessen
Stage 15
Xavier Pereyron
One for the sprinters or one for the breakaway? This stage could really go either way.
However, my sample of similar stages at the end of week two often favours the breakaway. In that case, this’ll be one for the rouleurs and those with real racing mindsets. An attack at the right time would lead to victory, but who would have the engine necessary to pick up the win?
People like Jasper Stuyven, Victor Campenaerts and Mathias Vacek could be up there. However, with Pogačar in yellow, UAE Team Emirates XRG allow Florian Vermeersch a bit of fun and the chance for him to search out a career-first Grand Tour stage win.
Cyclist’s prediction: Florian Vermeersch
Stage 16
Xavier Pereyron
The second dose of time-trialling comes in Toulouse, a city that has been on the TdF map since the race started in 1903.
Nevertheless, a time-trial feels like a foregone conclusion in modern racing. Of course, this should be one for Remco Evenepoel, despite the strategic placement of a steep ramp toward the end of the stage. If I were to guess, I reckon the Belgian takes between 30 and 40 seconds on the stage, which won’t be enough to reclaim yellow, but will be enough to have us believe that there’s still some hope for someone to challenge Pogačar during the final mountain stages.
Cyclist’s prediction: Remco Evenepoel
Stage 17
Xavier Pereyron
You hear about stages for the ages, but this is the complete opposite. It’s a sprint stage that I really couldn’t care less about. To add to the boredom, it ends in a place we’ve visited all too often in the Tour: Pau.
That said, this might end up being the last chance for the sprinters at the 2027 race. I reckon Tim Merlier will have abandoned by this point – he has a habit of this – but Jasper Philipsen will no doubt be here. He hasn’t gone home from a Tour empty-handed since 2021.
Thank God this is on a Wednesday. That gives an excuse to skip watching this one live.
Cyclist’s prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 18
Xavier Pereyron
Time for the queen stage, and the lowest-altitude Souvenir Henri Desgrange in over a decade.
That’s beside the point, this stage is still poised for a big GC battle. The relentless trail of mountains should favour the mountain train of UAE Team Emirates XRG, who will tee Pogačar up for a real exhibition on the Col du Portet. He’s won there before, and he’ll be hoping to place a final nail in the GC coffin after losing some time to Evenepoel in the Toulouse time-trial.
If there was a stage that will threaten Evenepoel, this could be it. High altitude, back-to-back mountains. This stage will heat up that duel between himself and Vingegaard for the second-place spot.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 19
Xavier Pereyron
Again, the race will feel somewhat deflated, but the show must go on. It’s the final mountain stage after all, and we can expect at least one GC contender to find themself spat out far too early on this stage. It’s a tale as old as time.
The GC will be left feeling cagey, as riders rest upon their laurels and hope to consolidate their places in the top ten.
In that case, this will surely be a last hurrah for the breakaway. It’ll be a good chance to get polka-dot jersey points, but I reckon the stage honours will go to a rider who looked set for a top ten before an off-day through them out of contention. It’s hard to forecast that, but Oscar Onley’s name springs to mind.
Cyclist’s prediction: Oscar Onley
Stage 20
Xavier Pereyron
This is an absolute snooze fest of a stage, I’ll tell you that for free. It’s not particularly windy in this part of France, and it doesn’t exactly offer you the kind of scenic spots that’ll have you itching to go on Airbnb.
With everyone essentially clocked off, and half the sprinting field absent, the breakaway will be handed a final bone. At least, that’s what happened when Libourne last hosted a Tour stage in 2021.
Copy and paste what I said about the stage to Albi. Except, I think this stage will entice some of the second-tier sprinters who have missed out on a chance of stage glory. The Mads Pedersen, Biniam Girmay or even Davide Ballerini type. It’ll require some Classics legs to break free and read the situation.
Cyclist’s prediction: Davide Ballerini
Stage 21
Xavier Pereyron
I wish terrible returns for whoever tried to peddle the rumour that the Tour would be ditching Montmartre in 2027. After the stinker on Stage 20, that would have been a real travesty for all involved.
Alas. Cinderella, we will go to the ball because Montmartre is back for another year.
This Classics-like circuit has produced A-list victories since its introduction. There was Wout van Aert, then Mathieu van der Poel last July. You could even include Remco Evenepoel on that list, as he won Olympic gold on a similar course.
That suggests only someone within that elite ring has the capability to win on this loop, and after trying his damn hardest in 2025 and 2026, I reckon 2027 is the turn of Tadej Pogačar. His form will begin to spike again in preparation for the Worlds, and he’ll be able to distance a tired Van der Poel on the final ascent up Rue Lepic.
And like that, the Slovenian will win a record-breaking sixth Tour and become the first Tour champion to win in Paris since 1982.
Cyclist’s prediction: Tadej Pogačar
The GC podium and jersey predictions
Xavier Pereyron
I spoiled it there, but I am backing Pogačar to win a sixth Tour de France. Despite tabling a route that looks as Pog-proof as it can be, the Slovenian is just too strong to let a time-trial get in the way of another Tour victory. As for second, I think Remco Evenepoel will be able to pip Jonas Vingegaard, having gained a big buffer over the Dane against the clock.
That would mean we won’t have the white jersey on the final podium for the first time since 2018. I reckon Paul Seixas will miss out on the final podium again, but a white jersey will prove a consolation prize for a rider still finding his feet at Grand Tours.
The green jersey will return to a traditional sprinter in 2026 in my eyes. Tim Merlier never goes for the points classification, so I guess I have to back Jasper Philipsen for that prize, having won two stages in my predictions. As for polka-dots, I’m leaning toward Lenny Martinez. This parcours does not suit his GC strengths, so a breakaway run like 2025 seems very likely.