File photo of cocoa beans
Research firm Fitch Solutions has revealed that despite global cocoa prices soaring to record levels in 2025, top cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are unlikely to reap the full economic benefits.
Data shows that average cocoa prices reached US$8,900 per tonne between January and July 2025, more than triple the long-term average of US$2,500 per tonne recorded from 2005 to 2023.
According to Fitch, while prices are expected to gradually ease to around US$6,900 per tonne between 2026 and 2030 as global supplies recover, they are still projected to remain well above historical levels.
Ghana currently pays the highest farmgate prices in West Africa – COCOBOD
However, Fitch Solutions cautions that these elevated prices are unlikely to translate into major economic windfalls for the region’s top cocoa producers.
“Our view that structurally higher cocoa prices will not create major economic windfalls for Africa’s cocoa-producing nations in the coming years rests on three key factors,” Fitch noted.
Why prices are not helping enough
The first major factor is the pricing mechanism. Both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire use government-controlled marketing boards to set farmgate prices, the amount paid to farmers.
While both countries have increased farmgate prices in recent seasons, Fitch points out that the gap between farmgate and international prices remains wide.
Secondly, fiscal and operational constraints limit how much of the global price increase can be passed on to local farmers.
Although farmer incomes have improved somewhat, they still fall significantly short of global benchmarks, reducing the broader impact on household spending and domestic economic activity.
As a result, even with cocoa prices at historic highs, many farmers and national economies are missing out on the full potential benefits.
SP/MA
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