India is rapidly moving towards an internet and telecom duopoly dominated by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, with Vodafone Idea facing deep financial distress and BSNL lagging in modernization.
The market share of Jio and Airtel now exceeds 70%, leaving Indian consumers with very limited choices for internet and mobile services. Reliance Jio stands at about 494 million subscribers, while Airtel commands around 320 million. Vodafone Idea’s continued decline and BSNL’s slow rollout of 4G and 5G further cement this duopoly.
Government officials have publicly stated that duopoly is undesirable and reaffirmed support for more competition, pointing to initiatives for delicensing spectrum and backing Vodafone Idea and BSNL. However, officials acknowledge that the “duopoly is driven by deep pockets and massive capex required” rather than any deliberate policy.
The practical effect for consumers is a lack of real alternatives, resulting in less choice, higher tariffs, and increasing average revenues per user (ARPU). Jio and Airtel’s dominance means tariff hikes can occur with limited market resistance, raising concerns over affordability and digital inclusion.
While the government insists competition must be preserved, tangible challenges remain:
Vodafone Idea’s financial health is precarious, with no further government relief forthcoming and major AGR dues looming.
BSNL is pivoting to indigenous tech but remains far behind private players.
Upcoming satellite internet and WiFi spectrum initiatives may broaden options, but mass adoption will take time.
All things considered, India is shaping into an internet duopoly—the dominance of Jio and Airtel is nearly absolute, and unless there’s aggressive policy action or disruptive innovation, consumers will continue to face restricted choice and rising costs.
CT Bureau