Once a home specialist, Woakes has been the most ineffective seamer in this series

It was exactly two years ago this month that Chris Woakes almost single-handedly changed the complexion of the 2023 Ashes. 

Drafted into the side with his team 0-2 down, staring at a first Ashes home defeat in over 20 years, Woakes took 19 wickets at 18.15 a piece, and further complemented that with a match-winning 32* in the fourth innings at Headingley to tie the series and help England stage a sensational comeback.

The series ended 2-2 — Australia were saved by rain at Old Trafford — and Woakes finally got the limelight he’d always deserved, walking away with the Player of the Series award. 

But as we cut to 2025, the end might just be near for Woakes’ Test career.

Once a home specialist, the ongoing India Test series has seen the right-armer turn into the weak link in England’s pace attack. 

Three Tests in, Woakes has proven to be the most ineffective seamer across both teams, taking his wickets at 56.42 apiece. He has drawn fewer false shots than all the Indian seamers, with Josh Tongue being the only other specialist pacer to have been less threatening than him having bowled 50 or more overs. 

Admittedly, this has not been an easy series for the bowlers, even with the new ball. Even then, Woakes’ numbers with the new dukes have been alarmingly bad, with him averaging 106 in the first 12 overs. 

Here, too, he’s drawn fewer false responses than any other bowler, drawing barely half of what India’s spearhead, Jasprit Bumrah, has managed. 

It goes without saying that the ‘false shot percentage’ numbers are a bit skewed for the Indian bowlers because of the carefree nature of England’s batting, yet sometimes the eyes tell you as much as the numbers do. 

And it’s no secret that, outside the new-ball spell in the first hour of the Edgbaston Test, where he was incredibly unlucky, Woakes’ bowling has noticeably missed zip. And the speeds have been down big time too, with 37% of his deliveries in the series clocking at 130 kph or under. 

Explained: What’s behind Woakes’ struggles

Perhaps there’s a larger conversation to be had here, which is whether Woakes is one of those bowlers who is a remarkably good third seamer, but someone who just does not have it in him to lead the attack. 

What does that mean? Well, Woakes has played 37 Test matches at home, of which 20 have involved both James Anderson and Stuart Broad, and 29 have involved at least one of them. Meaning he’s primarily operated as a first/second change bowler (third or fourth seamer).

In fact, a whopping 64.70% of Woakes’ overs at home have come from bowling positions three and below, where he averages 22.51. 

Things get interesting, however, when you look at his numbers when he leads the attack: Woakes has bowled 275.4 overs at home, taking the new ball as the first bowler, and he’s averaged 28.40. 

The catch here? 270 of these overs have come since July 18, 2024, post the retirement of both Anderson and Broad. 

This could mean a lot of things. For one, it might tell a lot about how flat the pitches have become, and that’s true. It could also mean that Woakes might just not be a very good ‘new ball’ bowler. Or maybe, it’s a combination of both. 

Numbers tell us that, historically, Woakes has never been a particularly great bowler with the new ball — even while playing alongside Broad and Anderson on spicy pre-Bazball decks. 

In overs 1-12 in home Tests, the 36-year-old averages 33.5 in his career, taking a solitary wicket in this phase till 2019. Pre-2024, with the new ball, Woakes took a wicket only once every 69 balls with the brand new Dukes cherry. 

What’s happened post the retirement of Anderson and Broad, then, is that England have not only given new-ball responsibilities to someone who’d never been the best of new-ball bowlers, but, on top of that, made his job tougher by preparing some of the most batter-friendly wickets seen in the country this century. 

This combined with Woakes’ natural decline — accelerated by ageing —  has proven to be a recipe for disaster. 

Why the end might be near for Woakes

Now, on the back of the numbers he’s accumulated across the first three Tests, there is no guarantee that Woakes will play any part in the remainder of this series. 

Even if he were to play one more Test and bowl a match-winning spell in that, however, the future still looks bleak for the right-armer. 

England’s next major assignment is Australia, and Woakes is certain to sit out The Ashes, given he averages 51 with the ball Down Under. That effectively means he’ll only be available for selection next come the 2026 home summer. 

However, Woakes will be 37 by then. Not only will he not have a great 2025 to fall back on, but there are also others, such as Sam Cook, knocking on the door. 

Plus, assuming Jofra Archer stays fit, England will have about half a dozen speedsters not only younger than Woakes but more suited to bowl on flatter, batter-friendly wickets with minimal lateral movement. 

All things considered, starting with Woakes in the first Test of the 2026 home summer might be sort of a step backwards for England.

Realistically, then, there might be no more than one Test left for Woakes in his kitty. 

It might not have happened for him so far in this series, but signing off with a match-winning spell with the series in the balance, whether it be at Old Trafford or The Oval, will be the most Woakesy thing of all time.Â