Micron Technology (MU) stock is on track for its third-straight daily loss, but still sports a 40.3% year-to-date lead. The security has struggled to conquer its June 26, 52-week high of $129.85, with an early August attempt coming just shy of that peak, though the $110 level stepped in to contain its subsequent pullback. The recent losses have also placed MU near a trendline that has historically yielded bullish returns.
Digging deeper, the semiconductor stock is within 0.75 of the 50-day trendline’s 20-day average true range (ATR) after spending at least 80% of the last 10 days and 80% of the last two months above it. Per Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, this has happened seven other times over the past three years, after which the equity was higher one month later 86% of the time, averaging a healthy 5.5% gain. A move of similar magnitude from the stock’s current perch of $117.97 would put it back at $124.45.
An unwinding of pessimism amongst short-term option traders could help MU keep charging higher. This is per the stock’s Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.10, which ranks higher than all other readings from the past year.
Options are now reasonably priced as well. The stock’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 45% ranks in the low 12th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.