Andy Schooler had a 25/1 shot placed last week. Now he’s previewed this week’s ATP Tour events in Umag, Kitzbuhel and Washington.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Frances Tiafoe in the Mubadala Citi DC Open at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Brandon Nakashima in the Mubadala Citi DC Open at 50/1 (General)
0.25pt e.w. Jaume Munar in the Mubadala Citi DC Open at 300/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Damir Dzumhur in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Dusan Lajovic in the Plava Laguna Croatia Open at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, Betfred)
1pt win Francisco Comesana to win the Generali Open at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Nicolas Jarry in the Generali Open at 22/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Mubadala Citi DC OpenWashington, USA (outdoor hard)
The biggest tournament of the week takes place Stateside as the road to the US Open ramps up a level.
This ‘500’ hardcourt event features five of the world’s top 10 and nine of the top 20.
The field is led by Taylor Fritz, although it’s just a week and half since the American was in action in the Wimbledon semi-finals.
I do wonder if he’s coming back a bit too soon – it was a tough Wimbledon run, featuring two five-setters, each played over two days. He didn’t win any match in straight sets and his campaign came straight off the back of a title run in Eastbourne.
Throw in the fact he could meet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in his opener – the same man who should have beaten him in the Wimbledon first round – and I have no interest in backing Fritz at 4/1.
Alternatives in the top half include Ben Shelton, who also played well at Wimbledon. I also feel Flavio Cobolli, a runner-up here last year, and Gabriel Diallo, the other man who forced Fritz to as decider in SW19, have potential.
However, the man I’m prepared to take a chance on is local hero FRANCES TIAFOE.
Now, it hasn’t been the greatest season from the Maryland-born star so far but this is usually the time of year when he plays his best tennis.
He’s long made the US Open his priority and has made two semi-finals there in the past three years.
However, Tiafoe also wants to perform in front of his home crowd in DC and will know he’ll need more matches under his belt if he wants to contend again in New York.
As a local, he’s fine in what are usually hot and humid conditions and the forecast is for the mercury to hit 34C this week.
The last three years have brought one semi-final and two quarter-final appearances, so he hasn’t been too far away.
His best result this season came on home soil in Dallas (runner-up), while he recently, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, made the quarter-finals at Roland Garros.
The grass season wasn’t great, although he didn’t play badly in defeat to Cam Norrie at Wimbledon, and he’ll be happy to be back on his favoured hardcourts.
Look, I’m not totally convinced he’s going all the way this week but I do feel there are plenty of factors which suggest he can contend and I’ll back Tiafoe each-way in the top half at 25/1.
The bottom section looks weaker to me and is therefore a land of opportunity.
Second seed is Lorenzo Musetti, although he’s played only one match since retiring from his French Open semi-final in early June – and that was a pretty dismal defeat at Wimbledon when he didn’t look ready.
The favourite in this section is Daniil Medvedev but it would take a brave man to back the Russian at 8/1 given he’s not won an ATP title of any sort since May 2023.
His ‘hardcourt specialist’ reputation appears to be doing a lot of heavy lifting in this market and I feel the 2019 runner-up is worth opposing.
Dan Evans and Gael Monfils are former champions who reside in this section, although you’d have to fancy Alex de Minaur, the 2018 runner-up, as a more likely winner on this occasion.
Still, the Australian is only a 9/1 shot which, given his form has dipped rather in recent months, looks too skinny.
I’ll instead throw a dart in the direction of BRANDON NAKASHIMA.
He’s another American who enjoys the summer hardcourt season – last year he beat five top-25 players during this swing, namely Tommy Paul, Fritz, Arthur Fils, Holger Rune and Musetti.
Nakashima arrives here off a strong grasscourt campaign, one which saw him make two ATP quarter-finals and the third round at Wimbledon where he only lost in a final-set tie-break.
He’s since spent a week or so back home in San Diego – he’s been pictured playing golf, at the baseball and generally chilling out so should be mentally refreshed and ready to go.
Nakashima’s strong serve should work well in what are usually pretty slick conditions – aided by that heat – and he could well be the one to trouble the rusty Musetti if they meet in round three.
De Minaur and Medvedev (or Rune) would follow if seedings play out, although, as you can probably tell from what I’ve already written, it would be no surprise if they were not to make it that far.
At 50/1, let’s try a small bet on Nakashima.
One player worth a mention before I go is JAUME MUNAR.
I saw his name among the rank outsiders in the outright market and found 300/1 quotes rather disrespectful.
Not renowned for his hardcourt prowess, the Spaniard has improved on the surface during what has been a pretty good 2025 season.
He opened the year with a semi-final run in Hong Kong, beating Musetti, while there was also a last-four appearance in Dallas where Shelton was among his victims.
Munar also defeated Medvedev in Miami in what was his last hardcourt tournament and since then he’s impressed on the Rome clay, while last time out at Wimbledon he inflicted a rare defeat on Alexander Bublik.
This is a player with a lot of confidence right now and I can’t resist a small bet at those chunky odds – I can certainly see him going deep if the draw opens up for him.
Plava Laguna Croatia OpenUmag, Croatia (outdoor clay)
The final claycourt events of the season take place this week – a last chance in 2025 for the dirtballers to shine.
The Croatia Open is staged in Umag, in the north of the country – head east across the Adriatic from Venice and you’ll basically be there.
It’s a coastal resort so those players arriving from sea level in Bastad should be at an advantage compared to those coming straight from Gstaad, which has an altitude above 1,000m. Conditions here will be much slower than in the Swiss Alps and also considerably warmer – temperatures are expected to be in the high 20s, although matches are deliberately scheduled for the evenings to avoid the worst of the heat.
The tournament is popular with the players and many future stars have cut their teeth here. Former champions include Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who won his maiden ATP title at the venue.
Qualifiers have a good record here, while another of those to make his major breakthrough in Umag, Andrey Rublev, did so as a lucky loser in 2017 when he surged to the title.
If you are happy to simply follow that ‘future star’ trend and seek out a ‘NextGen’ player, Elmer Moller may be the man for you at 28/1.
The Dane certainly looks to have a big future ahead of him but I’m not convinced he’s ready to win at ATP Tour level just yet.
A better bet on a player chasing his maiden ATP title this week would be on Mariano Navone.
He’s won a Challenger title on clay since Wimbledon and I don’t think last week’s second-round loss to Francisco Cerundolo in Bastad should be looked upon with great negativity.
The worry here is the two could meet again this week at the quarter-final stage, while before that is also a potential clash with Bastad finalist Jesper de Jong in what looks a tough quarter. Therefore odds of 7/1 aren’t for me.
Overall, this isn’t the strongest field.
There is only one top-50 player present and that’s Cerundolo, who is the defending champion. Frankly, it’s no surprise to see him chalked up as the 7/2 favourite.
However, the Argentine was beaten by Luciano Darderi in the semis in Bastad, a lengthy match which would have left him jaded physically and mentally.
The two men in that Bastad final – under way at time of writing – are Darderi and de Jong. Both are in this field but the last player to win Bastad and Umag back-to-back was Carlos Moya in 2002 (admittedly they haven’t been in consecutive weeks in every year since).
For me, it could pay to look to the weaker second quarter in the top half where DAMIR DZUMHUR has shown some decent signs in recent times.
Having climbed back into the world’s top 70, he’s seeded fourth here so only need three wins to make the final.
Vit Kopriva is the other seed here and there are also two qualifiers, although I’m not convinced by any of the players in the final round of qualifying with probably Andrea Pellegrino looking to hold the best chance.
Still, Dzumhur has played pretty well during the clay swing, making semis in Bucharest and the third round in both Madrid and Paris – at the French Open he took a set off eventual champion Alcaraz.
Last week in Bastad, he pushed Cerundolo to a deciding set in their quarter-final so I’d expect one last big effort on the clay from a player who has competed well on the surface in recent months.
14/1 isn’t a mouthwatering price but it seems fair given the section of the draw he’s in.
In the bottom half, I’m backing another veteran with the potential to go well at a big price.
DUSAN LAJOVIC is a former champion here, albeit that was back in 2019. He’s also made three other quarter-finals, the most recent coming last season. He’s now 9-3 in his last 12 matches in Umag.
His recent form is hardly sensational but, like Dzumhur, there have been some good signs during the claycourt campaign.
Alexander Bublik and Laslo Djere were both beaten in Monte Carlo, while last month Lajovic made the Challenger Tour final in Sassuolo.
I like his draw here too.
His first two opponents – Terence Atmane and Kamil Majchrzak – are both coming down from the altitude of Gstaad so may not be attuned to the conditions. That looks a potentially good way to bed in.
Then could come Camilo Ugo Carabelli, a semi-finalist in Bastad, although he didn’t have to face a top-100 player during that run.
In short, a small bet at 20/1 looks worth a try.
Generali OpenKitzbuhel, Austria (outdoor clay)
Alexander Bublik may have won 18 of his last 21 matches, but it still feels shocking to see the Kazakh chalked up at 10/3 to win an ATP event.
Bublik arrives here off a title run in Gstaad where, like here, there was plenty of altitude in play.
That tends to give the big-hitters that extra fizz but also makes it more difficult to control the ball – you don’t want to be banging the ball out of the back of the court.
Bublik will now look to complete the Gstaad-Kitzbuhel double and recent history suggests he has a good chance – both Matteo Berrettini (2024) and Casper Ruud (2021) have managed to win these two events in as many weeks.
I’d certainly be keener backing someone arriving here from across the Austrian-Swiss border than a player flying in from the Bastad event, played at sea level.
I’ll come onto the one I have in mind shortly but first I’m going to address the top half of the draw which is the section led by top seed Bublik.
After years of watching him throw in half-hearted efforts or just bizarre tennis – hitting the ball with the racquet handle et al – I just can’t be getting involved at his current price. Surely another meltdown can’t be far away. Even if it is, I can live with not backing Bublik if he justifies favouritism. I see no value in his odds.
Instead, I prefer to back NICOLAS JARRY.
He produced his best form of the season at Wimbledon where his big first serve won him plenty of cheap points and I can see that shot being a big factor this week too, given the altitude.
It’s helped him here in the past, albeit he’s only made two visits. One of them brought a semi-final run and in his five previous matches at the venue, Jarry has only had his serve broken five times.
Look at other altitude venues and the case strengthens.
Two of Jarry’s three ATP titles have come well above sea level (in Geneva and Santiago), while four of his seven finals have been at significant altitude. It’s also worth mentioning his won in Bastad in this post-Wimbledon period of the season before.
After a Wimbledon run which saw him serve 111 aces in four matches and beat Holger Rune, Learner Tien and Joao Fonseca, I believe the Chilean is ready to build on that relative success in what should again be friendly conditions.
He starts against Botic van de Zandschulp, who hasn’t won back-to-back matches on the main tour since Indian Wells, while the seeds in quarter two are Roberto Bautista Agut – arriving from sea level in Bari where he’s been playing in the Hopman Cup – and the out-of-form Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
At 22/1, Jarry makes appeal.
In the bottom half, I’ m keen to take on second seed Sebastian Baez.
The Argentine did end a winless run which stretched back to April last week but he’s still only 1-8 since then and his tournament in Bastad hardly ended well – he won just two games in defeat to Luciano Darderi.
Baez may be a former champion here but he has to be opposed at 4/1.
Maybe Arthur Rinderknech can go well in these conditions – he made the semis here in 2021. Sebastian Ofner is another to consider (although we backed him without success last week), while Arthur Cazaux was a semi-finalist in Gstaad.
However, the man I’m going to side with is FRANCISCO COMESANA.
I saw a bit of him in Gstaad and the Argentine was playing well. He hadn’t been broken until running into eventual champ Bublik in the last eight and losing that one was no disgrace.
Now, I wouldn’t really associate his game with being particularly well suited to altitude conditions but he did well enough last week, beat Arthur Fils in Madrid in May and won a Challenger Tour title up in Sao Paulo at the end of last season, so there’s enough to like on that front.
He’ll start against Tristan Boyer, a player he’s already beaten in the current clay season, with the winner facing Cazaux or Ignacio Buse, both of whom reached the Gstaad semis.
Pedro Martinez is the leading seed in the quarter but he has a last-minute withdrawal in Gstaad and hasn’t been in the greatest form.
A price of 9/1 won’t be for everyone but I can see the Argentine making an impact here and will back him accordingly.
Posted at 1320 BST on 20/07/25
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