Days Picks
8 / 3-1-2
2025 Overall — 1058
1058 / 323-369-463
Win % of Top Pick
30.53%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
36.39%
2025 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 640-1,058
60.49%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ EP — 50-77
64.94%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 200-314
63.69%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 155-235
65.96%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 44-79
55.70%
2025 Only Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 180-338
53.25%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9
66.67%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 5-6
83.33%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ EP — 24-77
31.17%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ CD — 107-314
34.08%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ HI — 73-235
31.06%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 22-79
27.85%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ TP Winter — 90-338
26.63%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ Pim — 5-9
55.56%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 2-6
33.33%
2025 “Key Plays” @ EP 3/3-0-0
100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Plays” @ KEE — 11/6-0-2
54.55% Win / 72.73% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ TP — 34/ 16-6-3
47.06% Wn / 75.53% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ HI — 31/15-3-8
48.39% Win / 83.87% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ CD — 30/15-5-5
50.00% Win / 83.33% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ Pim — 2/2-0-0
100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ SAR — 1/1-0-0
100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” Overall — 112/ 58-14-18
51.79% Win / 80.36% ITM
(Stats to be updated)
Here’s our looks on this super Saturday card at Kentucky Downs, which features the G1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes and 5 other major Stakes events — including 4 that are Graded.
Big day.
Big crowd.
Big handle.
Big deal.
Let’s get going:
1st: 1-10/6-9-11/(14)-8-4-7-(16)-(13)-12…I’m in rugged, rural Utah — touring the Arches, the Canyons, the amazing sites and sounds of all things Western United States. The wifi is a little sketchy, so I will try my best to give you what I’m going to do. Sadie Earp (1) nearly won the last time out at Saratoga. Figures here for a top 2YO trainer, who specializes in these sprinter types. Look out. Humor Me Baby (10) could put some life into this one, too. Ran huge when getting the grass for the first time. Big rider switch. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I key the 1-10 over/under the 6-9-11 in two smaller units.
2nd: 9-3-7/6/11-1/4…Gilded Craken (9) is a speedster who could rip and run in this spot. Have to respect the connections and rider is off to another good start here. Wins with .21% for this trainer inn the last 34, too. Sugoi (3) drops back into the high-end claiming ranks after trying a bunch of Stakes in a row. Had some success of in some them, too. Can go a route. Out of Deductions (7) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one goes for a very good trainer, and ran huge two races ago at Churchill Downs. Worth a look. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 11-1/2-(14)-4/10-3-12-5…Princess Attitude (11) goes for a trainer who has been chilly all year, but this one ran really well before the debacle in the G3 Pucker Up last out. Gets a top rider here and could be coming late. Threat. Love You Anyway (1) rates a shot here, too, for a barn that always does well over these grounds. I bet the 11-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 11-1 over/under the 2-14-4-10 in two smaller units.
4th: 11-7-10/9/12-4-2/(14)/6-8-(15)…Saturday Flirt (11) is a tidy 8-1 in the Brisnet.com ML and I love this one’s chances at a price. Has won 2 in a row and 3 of 4 lifetime. I’m rolling the dice here. I bet the 11 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 in the exactas. And, I will key the 11 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
5th: 7-8/6-4-11/12…Agia Marina (7) gets my checkmark here. Daughter of Quality Road is quality, too. Ran huge two spots ago. Had issues as the favorite last out. Love this rider switch. Look out here. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the top two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-8 over/under the rest of the numbers I list in two smaller units.
6th: 6-11-4/3-9-7/2-5-8/1…G3 Ladies Marathon Stakes…This is the first of 6 straight Stakes events and it will be a long-distance router. I go with Stellify (6), if this one makes the gate for trainer Brad Cox. Just won over this course on Aug. 28. That’s about a week ago. But if they wheel back? Got to like. If not, I go with No Mo Candy (11), at odds of 6-1. Ran huge last out and could get the top prize here. I bet the 6 or 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas.
7th: 7-13-5/9-2-11/1-3/4-10…G3 Mint Millions Stakes…Brilliant Berti (7) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 4YO loves this track and comes in off a win in the G2 Wise Dan at Churchill Downs. Has a good year working and could add a lot of cash to the drawer here. Has 4 wins with this rider. Could make it 5. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the Win/Place/Show bet. I box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 7 over/under the 13-5-9-2-11-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 7-10-14/4-2/6-1-12-8…Gun Runner Stakes…I go with another #7 here — New Century (7). This Great Brit-bred has run well on this continent, too, and should love this course today. Gets a top rider up and has had some traffic issues in the last two . Look out here at a solid price. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units.
9th: 9/10-4-3/5/8-6/1-7-11-14…G2 Music City Stakes…My “Key Horse of the Day” comes here with Kilwin (9). This filly loves this course and comes in off two nice wins in a row — including the G1 Test over the main track at Saratoga. Back on the sod here, where she has 2 wins and a second in 5 starts. Gets a familiar name on her back. I bet the 9 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I key the 9 over/under the 10-4-3-5-8-6 in the exactas. More with the 10-4-3/
10th: 8-6-7/4-5/11-9/12-2…G1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes…Spiced Up (8) goes for the team of trainer Bill Mott and rider Junior Alvarado. That duo is having a super year. Again. No reason to stop now. This 3YO is coming in off two wins, after being switched to the sod. Should like this distance, too. Look out here with a roll at the end. Chasing Liberty (6) has a win here, too, and looks to be in top form. Switch back to a rider here who has a win with this one in the past. Nice. Governor Sam (7) goes for a trainer who knows how to get them ready for the big ones. This could be the spot. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-5 in two smaller units.
11th: 6-5-11/9-10-2/3-7/8-1…G2 KY Turf Cup Stakes…The last of the Super Stakes comes here and I go with Grand Sonata (6). Has run here twice with a win and a second. Has earned nearly $1.4 million on this track. Wow numbers. Nearly scored in the G1 Arlington Million last time out. Will come late. Needs a little help but can boot. Mercante (5) is a horse that I love to love. Has never run here before, but has had a great year for a hard-boot trainer who deserves the chance to have one like this. Rooting choice. Fort Washington (11) is coming off a huge win and has never been better. Love this rider who has made this one a good one. Big chance, too. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then double/triple down on the w-p-s bet on the 6. I box the top 3 in the exactas. And, I key the top 3 over/under the 9-10-2 in two smaller units.
12th: 4-2-3/(16)-(13)-(14)/1-9-(15)…
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene