Key Takeaways

Can NEAR Protocol’s big bet on AI overcome its centralization problem to hit $3? We analyze on-chain data, tokenomics, & expert price predictions to 2030.

NEAR Protocol [NEAR] is at a crossroads, making a massive bet on Artificial Intelligence to carve out its place in a crowded crypto market.

The project has a compelling story, with real on-chain growth and a vision for “user-owned AI,” but it’s haunted by nagging questions about centralization and the shadow of Ethereum’s [ETH] Layer-2 giants.

For anyone holding NEAR, the big question is whether this high-stakes pivot can finally push the token to a stable $3 valuation by 2030.

The token’s journey has been a classic crypto rollercoaster. After its 2020 mainnet launch, NEAR rode the 2021 bull run to a peak of $20.44 before crashing over 91% in the brutal crypto winter that followed.

Now, with its new focus on AI, people are starting to pay attention again.

Betting the farm on decentralized AI

The architect of this new direction is co-founder Illia Polosukhin, who brings serious credibility from his time co-authoring the “Attention Is All You Need” paper.

This is the very research that created the Transformer model powering today’s AI revolution. Polosukhin’s goal is to wrestle control of data and intelligence away from Big Tech, creating a world of “user-owned AI.”

To make that happen, the NEAR Foundation is opening its wallet.

They’ve launched a $20 million fund to kickstart the creation of autonomous AI agents on the network, hoping to see new ideas in AI-driven gaming or decentralized finance.

They’ve also teamed up with market maker DWF Labs and funneled a million NEAR tokens to NEAT Protocol, a rollup solution built to handle heavy AI workloads.

To top it off, they announced an ambitious plan in late 2024 to build a massive open-source AI model, a move designed to pull top AI talent into their orbit.

All of this is built on NEAR’s core tech. Its Nightshade sharding architecture is engineered to handle up to 100,000 transactions a second, offering the kind of speed and low costs that data-hungry AI applications demand.

The numbers don’t lie

NEAR’s strategy is already showing up in the on-chain data, which paints a picture of an ecosystem buzzing with activity.

By May 2025, NEAR was clocking 46 million monthly active users, making it the second-biggest Layer-1 by that measure, just behind Solana [SOL].

Some reports from September 2025 push that number even higher to 51.2 million active addresses.

A huge chunk of this growth comes from popular apps like Sweat Economy, a walk-to-earn project that successfully brought its user base over from the traditional web.

The developer scene looks healthy, too. Roughly 2,500 developers have contributed to the project across hundreds of code repositories.

The NEAR Foundation keeps this talent engaged with a steady stream of grants, accelerator programs like the Horizon AI Incubator, and direct funding.

NEAR Protocol: Old ghosts don’t go away

For all its technical chops and user growth, NEAR can’t shake two major criticisms. The first is centralization.

People point to the initial token sale, which gave a large slice of the pie to the team and early investors, and the still-concentrated staking power.

Becoming a validator used to cost over $200,000, creating a high barrier to entry that works against decentralization.

Even as the NEAR Foundation talks up a decentralized future, its own top-down structure and heavy influence on the ecosystem raise eyebrows.

The second problem is the competition. NEAR is going head-to-head with Ethereum’s army of Layer-2s like Arbitrum [ARB] and Optimism [OP].

These solutions offer speed while still tapping into the unmatched security and massive network of Ethereum itself.

While NEAR’s sharding offers quick transaction finality, Ethereum’s L2s have a powerful gravitational pull, drawing in users and developers who want to stay within the largest smart contract ecosystem.

NEAR Protocol joins the race to deflation

NEAR’s token model is a delicate balancing act. The network creates new tokens at a fixed rate of about 5% per year, mostly to pay validators for securing the network.

But there’s a twist: 70% of all transaction fees get burned and are gone forever.

This sets up a dynamic where, if the network gets busy enough, more tokens could be burned than are created, flipping NEAR into a deflationary asset.

The community is actively debating this. A recent governance proposal suggested cutting the maximum inflation rate in half to 2.5%.

Supporters believe this is a necessary step to make the token’s economics more sustainable and competitive with other blockchains that have made similar changes.

What’s a realistic price for NEAR by 2030?

Where NEAR’s price goes from here depends on how well it executes its AI plan and what the broader economy does.

The crypto market feels cautiously optimistic about 2025, hoping for interest rate cuts and clearer regulations. Cheaper money often finds its way into riskier assets like crypto, which could provide a tailwind.

Price predictions are all over the map. Some analysts see a conservative path to a range of $4.31 to $18.37 by 2030. More bullish voices think it could hit anywhere from $24 to $46 if its AI vision truly takes off.

A back-of-the-napkin analysis using Metcalfe’s Law, which values a network by its user count, gives a sense of the stakes.

Bear Case: If the AI narrative sputters and user growth stalls around 5 million, the market cap might land in the $50-$75 billion range.
Base Case: If NEAR keeps pace with the decentralized AI sector and pulls in 20 million active users, it could see a market cap of $100-$150 billion.
Bull Case: If NEAR actually becomes the go-to platform for decentralized AI and attracts 50 million users, its market cap could explode to $200 billion or more.

To get to $3 and stay there, NEAR has to do more than just build cool tech. It has to solve the complex legal and regulatory mess where AI and blockchain collide.

The leadership is talking to policymakers, but the gray areas around DAOs, smart contracts, and data privacy are huge risks.

The AI pivot is a brilliant story, but a story only becomes valuable when it starts generating real, tangible results.

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