The number of Britons who think the dangers of global warming have been exaggerated has jumped by more than 50 per cent in the past four years, new research for The Times reveals today.
One in four voters now believe that concerns over climate change are not as real as scientists have said, amid growing public concern at the cost of the government’s net zero policies.
Less than a third of the public (30 per cent) are in favour of banning new petrol and diesel cars — down from 51 per cent in 2021.
Only 16 per cent of voters said they would be prepared to pay higher gas bills to encourage the switch to electricity.
Experts said the findings showed that growing climate scepticism within mainstream politics in both Britain and the US was cutting through with voters, as the broad consensus on climate action breaks down.
“Climate change is being politicised [in the UK] in the same way that has been done in the United States,” said Professor Wouter Poortinga, an environmental psychologist at the University of Cardiff.
“If you have Kemi Badenoch standing up saying that we’re going to drill, baby, drill, that will have a polarising effect.”
The research, in collaboration with YouGov and the opinion consultancy Public First, compared public sentiment on climate change today with a study carried out by The Times in 2021.
Four years ago climate change was identified as the fourth most important issue facing the country ahead of immigration and asylum, education and crime.
At the time only 11 per cent of the 1,600-plus people questioned said that global warming was not the result of human activity while only 16 per cent believed that the warnings from scientists about its implications were exaggerated.
• ‘There are bigger issues in the world today than global warming’
Now climate change has fallen right down the list of the public concerns while there has been a marked increase in climate scepticism. The environment has fallen behind issues such as the economy and immigration, but is still above education, transport and Brexit.
Today 16 per cent of voters think global warming is not the result of human activity, while 25 per cent think the threat has been exaggerated.
The findings come amid growing concern at the top of government that its climate change policies could cost it votes at the next election.
Nigel Farage has called for net zero policies to be scrapped, saying the backlash against green energy could become the “new Brexit” while the Conservatives have announced a review of their support for climate change policies amid warnings from Kemi Badenoch that the political consensus “cannot hold”.
Badenoch told The Times that the polling showed plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 will not work. She said: “Keir Starmer is living in a fantasy land while families pay the price. That is why I have said plainly: net zero in its current form is impossible.”
While the energy secretary Ed Miliband remains confident that his department’s policies will reduce energy bills and create jobs, some in Downing Street remain unconvinced.
In particular there is concern that Labour’s election pledge to create 100 per cent green electricity by 2030 could end up pushing up bills. There are also worries that jobs lost by reducing North Sea oil and gas production will not be replaced like for like with new green jobs.
• UK plans scheme to suck CO₂ from the air
• Drivers to be given up to £3,750 to switch to electric cars
These fears are borne out in the Times polling, which finds a marked increase in reluctance by the public to countenance the types of measures that experts believe will be necessary to reduce Britain’s emissions and hit legally binding climate targets.
Less than a third of the public support banning gas boilers in new homes, while only 30 per cent are in favour of banning new petrol and diesel cars — down from 51 per cent in 2021.
Support for new taxes on gas bills to encourage people to switch from boilers to heat pumps has also declined markedly, from 24 per cent four years ago to 16 per cent now.
People are far less prepared to pay for the cost of net zero than they were four years ago, even from a low base.
Falling supportIn 2021 57 per cent said they would be prepared to pay more for international air travel — a figure that has now reduced to 48 per cent.Support for new taxes on meat, such as beef, that produce a lot of carbon emissions has fallen from 33 per cent to 23 per cent.The number of people prepared to see petrol prices go up has fallen from 36 per cent to 26 per cent.Overall the percentage of people who say that individuals have a responsibility to combat climate change by altering their behaviour has fallen from 62 per cent to 49 per cent.
Adam Corner, a researcher in climate communications and public attitudes, said the shift in views was also being driven by a move from street protests in 2019 to a period now that involved more tangible changes in people’s lives.
He said: “We’ve got to the point where everything now is on the ground, it’s local, it’s in your house, it’s in your area. So it moves from a general principle of support to a question of how are the terms of the transition [to net zero] unfolding? I think there we are hitting a bit of a wall, because lots of consumer-facing policies are still too unaffordable for a lot of people.”
At the same time the number of people who have confidence in the successive government’s commitments to reduce net emissions to zero by 2050 has more than halved from 32 per cent to 15 per cent.
There is also increasing pessimism about the impact that Labour’s climate change policies will have on the country and the economy.
Miliband, the energy secretary, said: “The message from the majority of the British people is loud and clear; they want action from government to bring down energy bills with clean homegrown power, to invest in good jobs in our communities, and to protect our way of life for our children and grandchildren.
“That is why this government is delivering our clean energy mission, so we can get out country off the fossil fuel rollercoaster to give us energy security, bring down bills for good, and create jobs.
“Those who seek to divide communities with climate disinformation will not win because they do not represent the interests or values of the British people.”
Only 25 per cent of voters think government green measures will result in increased economic growth, while 30 per cent think it will have a negative impact — a 36 per cent increase over four years.
Only 23 per cent think it will increase the number of jobs, while 19 per cent think it will create few jobs. About one in four say it will have a negative impact on them personally — up from 15 per cent in 2021.
While the survey found that it tended to be older voters who were most sceptical of climate change and the policies to combat it — across all age groups there were signs that disillusionment with net zero was on the rise.
In 2021 11 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds said concerns about climate change had been exaggerated, rising to 15 per cent of voters aged between 25 and 49.
Today 15 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds said the climate change threat had been exaggerated and 20 per cent of voters aged between 25 and 49.
Shaun Spiers, chief executive of the think tank Green Alliance, said campaigns against net zero were taking their toll.
“We’ve seen a concentrated, well-funded attack on net zero for several years now,” she said. “Anybody who gets their news from GB News, for instance, is getting a lot of scepticism all the time. We’ve seen how that succeeded in the [United] States,” he said.
A separate poll has found that the proportion of people who think net zero is good for the UK has gone down in the past year. The survey of 7,000 people by More in Common and Climate Outreach found that 48 per cent thought it would be good, compared with 62 per cent in 2024.
Emma James, a researcher at Climate Outreach,said: “This is driven by the growing mistrust of government and politicians, fears about cost and increasingly vocal and organised opposition.” However, about three times as many people still thought net zero would be good for the country rather than bad, which was 17 per cent. Ten 10 per cent did not know and 19 per cent thought it would be neither good nor bad.