Ange Postecoglou is
back in the Premier League as manager of Nottingham
Forest. On paper, this is a huge departure from Nuno Espírito
Santo, but might it work?
It’s quite natural to be at least a little confused by the news
that Ange Postecoglou has replaced Nuno Espírito Santo as
Nottingham Forest manager.
Nuno did an exceptional job in charge before being dismissed in
the early hours of Tuesday morning, having taken Forest back into
Europe following a 30-year absence. He did so while playing a
reactive brand of football that was based on a solid defence and
quick, direct attacks. It might not be everyone’s ideal style of
play, but it was wonderfully effective.
Postecoglou’s preferred playing style could barely be more
different. He almost became a caricature for his commitment to
making sure his Tottenham
were fun to watch. Some of the things he said hardly helped his
cause.
“Are you not entertained?” he bristled at a Sky Sports
reporter who asked if he was concerned with any aspect of his
team’s performance after they nearly threw away a 3-0 lead at home
to an out-of-sorts and weakened Manchester
United in the EFL Cup quarter-finals last season, only to sneak
through with a 4-3 win.
A year earlier, he had insisted on playing with a high line
against Chelsea
despite being down to nine men. “As long as I’m here, that’s what
we’re going to do,” he said. “Even with five men, we’ll have a
go.”
Those comments, alongside Spurs playing a high-speed,
high-pressing, attacking kind of football which at times appeared
to neglect any consideration for keeping the ball out of their own
net, all made the Australian out to be too dogmatic.
He was so committed to that style of play because it had worked
for him wherever he’d gone before. He’d won titles with Brisbane
Roar, Yokohama F. Marinos and Celtic, so he had good reason to
continue playing the same way.
And at Tottenham, his possession-based football was initially a
breath of fresh air after the dour stuff fans had been forced to
watch under José Mourinho and Antonio Conte, but it ultimately
proved his downfall.
He was so intent on attacking relentlessly that his Tottenham
team were consistently left too open, conceding far too many goals
and losing far too many games. They were certainly entertaining,
but results became so poor while sticking to that style of play
that it was almost as though winning was a secondary consideration.
That obviously wasn’t the case, but fans understandably found his
commitment to ‘Angeball’ infuriating when it appeared clear he
needed to adapt.
In 2023-24, his first season in England, only Manchester
City (65.5%) had more possession on average in Premier
League games than Spurs (62.0%). They scored 74 goals on their
way to finishing fifth but also conceded 61 goals, which was 10
more than 15th-placed Everton.
That meant that Spurs went into the UEFA Europa League for
2024-25, which brought a new challenge for Postecoglou. Could his
players stick to his playing style, which was based around
relentless energy and running, while also managing a European
campaign?
The short answer is ‘no’.
Spurs endured their worst top-flight league season since
1976-77, finishing 17th after losing 22 of their 38 matches. Only
the three relegated teams and
Wolves conceded more goals than Spurs (63), while only the
bottom three allowed their opponents a higher expected
goals total than them (64.4 xG). Based on their
defensive displays, they fully deserved to finish 17th.
Their season was derailed by an injury crisis that Postecoglou’s
football was at least partly to blame for. Tottenham ranked either
second or third in the Premier
League last season for distance covered (111.5 km per 90),
sprints (167.5 per 90), off-ball runs (159.0 per
90) and pressures in the final third (55.2 per
90). Their squad fell apart.
It was completely different to how Forest played. Forest had
just 40.7% possession in the Premier League last season, and
allowed their opponents chances worth 49.6 xG. They covered less
ground than any other team in the Premier League (104.1 km per 90)
and applied fewer pressures in the final third than anyone else,
too (36.9). They pressed high less than anyone else and spent more
time in a mid or low block (80%) than every other side.
The average position at which Tottenham’s defensive line caught
opponents offside was more than 10 metres higher up the pitch than
Forest’s. Forest, often camped in their own half, caught fewer
opposition attackers offside (36) than any other team in the
Premier League.
So, what are Forest thinking in swapping Nuno for Ange? Are they
going to rip up everything Nuno did and head to Arsenal – of all
places – for Postecoglou’s first game in charge on Saturday with
the aim of dominating the ball and playing one of the best teams in
the world off the park on their own patch? Can we expect Forest to
try and dominate possession from here on?
That seems incredibly unlikely. Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis
is a fiery character who is prone to making emotional decisions,
but even he surely won’t expect Postecoglou to change things that
much that quickly.
It might be the ultimate goal, though. Reports suggest Nuno was
determined to adapt his side’s style of play and focus a little
more on keeping possession, but he hasn’t got a great deal of
experience of doing that successfully. Postecoglou certainly knows
how to play that way, so perhaps he convinced Marinakis that he can
do it with Forest further down the road.
But in the immediate term, there’s every chance the Australian
continues the work Nuno did at the City Ground. Postecoglou proved
in Tottenham’s run to Europa League glory that he can
adapt and is willing to. In doing so last term, he brought Spurs
their greatest triumph in a generation.
In the latter stages of the Europa League, Postecoglou’s side
abandoned Angeball and became an impressively solid defensive unit.
In the final four games of that run, they conceded only one goal, a
deflected effort late on in the first leg of the semi-final against
Bodø/Glimt when they were already three goals up. They had no more
than 41.7% possession in any of those games and won every one.
In the win over United in the final, Spurs had 26.7% of the
ball, completed 61% of their passes and managed just three shots.
But they also barely looked like conceding. It was a million miles
from how Spurs had played in the league.
Afterwards, Postecoglou suggested the approach was one needed
specifically for knockout football.
“I’ve always felt that knockout football is different from your
league football,” he said. “When you’re in that situation, it comes
down really to good organisation, belief, having a good game plan
and then moments; if you can minimise the moments the opposition
have by having a really strong foundation.”
But while he might not want to play that way for a full
league season, he has shown he can do it. He is willing to
adapt when necessary, and he won’t try to revolutionise how Forest
play with just a few days to go before his first game this
weekend.
For one thing, his new club don’t have the players to play pure
Angeball straight away. We’re not going to see Chris
Wood pressing for 90 minutes at the Emirates.
Nikola Milenkovic isn’t going to be forced to play a high line
with a few days’ preparation.
What’s more, Spurs’ football in the knockout stages of the
Europa League really wasn’t that far away from how Forest played
under Nuno. Despite the damning evidence of Tottenham’s defensive
record in the Premier League under him, Postecoglou is clearly
capable of setting his team up to shut the opposition out.
Jonathan
Manuel / Data Analyst
It’s also worth noting that in the Premier League last season,
Spurs weren’t quite as extreme in their style of play as they had
been in 2023-24. Plenty of other teams played a far slower and more
intricate brand of football than them.
Jonathan
Manuel / Data Analyst
One aspect of Tottenham’s play under him that may bode well for
Forest is how effectively they attacked on the counter. Forest (45)
were one of only six teams that had more shots from fast breaks in
the Premier League last season than Spurs (36), but Postecoglou’s
side ranked second behind Liverpool
(14) for goals from fast breaks (10).
They were happy to keep hold of the ball to try and wear
opponents down – something we may see a little more of from Forest
under Postecoglou – but when there was an opportunity to attack at
pace, they took it. Forest should expect to continue to
counter-attack at pace under their new manager.
On the face of it, this looks like as big a jump in managerial
style as you could get. It’s the kind of change you might expect
from a team battling relegation who desperately need something new,
not from a team who have just had their best season in a
generation.
But while Postecoglou’s ideal philosophy is clearly a big
departure from Nuno’s, he showed with Tottenham that he can play a
different way, and he’ll have learned a great deal from his time
there. He’ll know that changing too much too soon at Forest
wouldn’t be the best idea.
For Forest, there’s no time to dwell on the loss of Nuno, one of
the most significant managers in their modern history. They have a
Premier League game to prepare for this weekend before they begin
their Europa League campaign next week.
And with a manager who has very recent experience of adapting
his team’s football to go all the way in that competition, maybe
there is even reason to get excited about this appointment.
Subscribe to
our football
newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should
also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.