Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
NBS cut its 9 and 18 month rates, raised its 3 yr rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

“COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE”
Annual inflation rose to 2.7% in June as local authority rates and payments, actual rentals for housing and electricity escalate, But the overall result was up from 2.4% in March but a bit lower than the 2.8% expected. Tradeable inflation rose to 1.2% whereas non-tradeable inflation fell to 3.7%. Food inflation rose to 4.2%. Whether 2.7% overall is enough for an August 20 rate cut, who knows. Currently financial markets are only pricing in two-thirds of a chance of a -25% rate cut although if not then they seem certain there will be one by October 8. Separately, economists see a higher chance. The NZX50 rose sharply after the data was released.

PROPERTY DEVELOPER WANTS A RATE CUT
Ex-prime minister (and land banker) John Key wants a -100 bps OCR cut, now.

CONSPIRACY THEORY DEBUNKED
Federated Farmers had convinced themselves the Net-Zero Banking Alliance was a co-ordinated cartel by banks to foist on them a cost for what they see as a phantom risk. The Commerce Commission has investigated and found no evidence to support their complaint. That probably won’t stop Fed Farmers working to avoid having to face up to climate risks, risks they would rather see socialised than show up in credit risk.

NZX50 WITH GOOD BOOST TO START WEEK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today, boosted by the better-than-expected CPI data, now up +2.1% over the past week. It is now down -0.9% since the start of the year although up +4.2% from this time last year. Kathmandu, Spark, SkyCity casino and Turners lead gains, while Chorus, Air New Zealand and Mainfreight, and Gentrack decline.

HIGH IIB YIELDS
Markets are expecting a new IIB (inflation indexed bond) from the NZ Treasury sometime this year, likely one with a 2050 maturity. NZ break-even inflation rates are currently attractive, and real yields are the highest among AAA/AA countries, Westpac’s Imre Speizer is noting.

LPR STABLE
The People’s Bank of China kept key Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at record lows during the July fixing today as was expected. The economic resilience in the Chinese economy means they are keeping their powder dry, even though American tariffs and threats remain a concern. But those resonate less at present.

SPEEDING UP THE INNOVATION PROCESS
China seems to be taking quite broad central policy actions to transform its industrial policies. Using the excuse of the “trade-war crisis” as motivation, it has released a digital transformation plan for their auto industry alongside similar initiatives for machinery and power equipment. Within those they are moving to promote the “orderly exit of outdated production capacity” as part of its broader industrial strategy.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are likely a little lower across all durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.26% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate is firmer at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.61% but up +1 bps at 4.58% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bps at 4.43%

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.4% in late Monday trade. However the ASX200 is down a sharpish -1.1% in their afternoon trade, somewhat in reaction to the Japanese election result. Locally the reaction isn’t so marked; Tokyo is down only -0.2% in early trade today. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has also opened up +0.5%. Wall Street is anticipating a strongish opening tomorrow with e=the S&P500 futures up +0.7% so far.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price in the US is unchanged from this morning at just under US$67.50/bbl and just under US$69.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STILL ON HOLD
The carbon price is still at NZ$58/NZU with hardly any trading activity. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STILL STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed, down -US$5/oz to US$3353/oz.

NZD DIPS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this morning at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 91.46 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps from where we started today, now just under 67.4.

BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,408and up +0.3% from this morning. Volatility has remained low, now at just on +/-0.9.

Select chart tabs

US$
AU$
TWI
Â¥en
Â¥uan
€uro
GBP
Bitcoin

Select chart tabs

1 year %
2 years %
3 years %
4 years %
5 years %
7 years %
10 years %

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».