French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have agreed to deepen their nuclear cooperation and work more closely than ever before on nuclear deterrence. The respective deterrents of both countries remain under national control ‘but can be coordinated,’ in response to major threats against the European continent.
The announcement came as part of an official 3-day state visit by the French president to the UK, during which a series of defense agreements were inked.
The President of the French Republic and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom reaffirm their longstanding and resolute commitment to nuclear cooperation. There is no greater demonstration of the strength and importance of our bilateral relationship than our willingness to work together in this most sensitive area. In this regard, we commend the important achievements since 2010.
Our nuclear weapons exist to deter the most extreme threats to the security of our nations and our vital interests.Our nuclear forces are independent, but can be coordinated and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance, and to the peace and stability of the Euro Atlantic area.
As we have explicitly stated since 1995, we do not see situations arising in which the vital interests of either France or the United Kingdom could be threatened without the vital interest of the other also being threatened. France and the United Kingdom agree that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by our two nations.
France and the United Kingdom have therefore decided to deepen their nuclear cooperation and coordination. A UK-France Nuclear Steering Group will be established to provide political direction for this work. It will be led by the Presidency of the French Republic and the Cabinet Office and will coordinate across nuclear policy, capabilities and operations.
The UK and France are Europe’s only nuclear powers, with deterrents that contribute significantly to the overall security of NATO and the Euro-Atlantic.
The United Kingdom and France reaffirm their full support for the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and for our obligations under the treaty. We will coordinate ever more closely to uphold and reinforce the international non-proliferation architecture.
The UK is, unlike France, a member of Nato’s Nuclear Planning Group. Its nuclear deterrent relies exclusively on a sea leg consisting of four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) carrying Trident ballistic missiles (of American design) fitted with British nuclear warheads. In the coming years, it will be modernized with four Dreadnought-class SSBNs.
The Royal Air Force intends to return to the nuclear mission, thanks to the procurement of twelve F-35A fighter-bombers capable of carrying the American B61 tactical nuclear bomb
France’s nuclear deterrent relies on two legs:
An airborne component based on the Strategic Air Forces (forces aériennes stratégiques or FAS) of the French Air & Space Force and the Nuclear Naval Air Force (force aéronavale nucléaire or FANu) of the French Navy. These can launch the ASMPA (air-sol moyenne portée amélioré) missile from Rafale B and Rafale M, respectively.
France also has four Le Triomphant-class SSBNs armed with M51 ballistic missiles. These will be replaced with four new boats as part of the SNLE3G programme.
To understand what “co-ordinated deterrents between UK and France” would like, (combined SSBN patrols? Coordinated strikes?), Naval News reached out to a number of experts.
According to Dr Emma Salisbury, an Associate Fellow at the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre, a senior staffer for a Member of Parliament and a Contributing Editor at War on the Rocks, this Northwood Declaration isn’t a change in UK nuclear doctrine, nor to the French equivalent. “The government has confirmed to Parliament that the UK deterrent remains independent and its use remains solely authorised by the Prime Minister, so this won’t undermine British sovereignty over its nuclear weapons.” Dr Salisbury said.
“Without having seen the exact details as yet, I assume that what this means operationally is that the British and French leaders will speak to each other if there is ever a crisis point at which the use of nuclear weapons becomes necessary, to coordinate whose missiles will hit where in order to provide the strongest response. I don’t foresee this having any effect on how either nation operates its deterrent capabilities in practice – what the agreement is intended to do is signal to Russia that the UK and France are standing together to protect Europe, and to ameliorate any fears of the continent no longer having sufficient nuclear protection should the United States withdraw its own umbrella. The calculus here is simple but effective: deterrent plus deterrent equals stronger deterrent.” she added.
For Héloïse Fayet, a Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center at Ifri, these announcements are the culmination of lengthy discussions, conducted by both officials and researchers/think-tankers on both sides of the Channel. “They are part of the framework of the Joint Nuclear Commission, a FRUK nuclear consultation body”.
“I notice the creation of a ‘nuclear oversight group,’ co-chaired by the Élysée and the British Cabinet Office (Prime Minister’s office), which will be responsible for ‘coordinating the growing cooperation in the areas of policy, capabilities, and operations.’” Fayet added.
On the topic of “coordinated strikes”, Fayet said “it is perfectly possible to coordinate strikes if the two countries agree beforehand on the targets and on the SLBM launching process”. And on the topic of combined SSBN patrols, Fayet said, what seems most likely is a French SSN, or frigate, dispatched to Faslane to help secure the deployment of British SSBNs, and vice versa.
A source familiar with the topic, who wished to remain unnamed, said “UK and France are already discussing operating areas for deconfliction, following the collision of a French and British SSBN back in February 2009. So a channel of communcation has already been in place for years.”
Etienne Marcuz, an Associate Fellow at FRS, stresses that, as indicated in the declaration, coordination will take place in strategic, capability and operational areas.”In particular, the two countries will be cooperating in the area of intelligence sharing, to share their respective assessments of the strategic situation and in particular of the enemy’s posture. As far as operational cooperation is concerned, for the moment there is nothing explicit, but everything is virtually possible. The major change is the setting up of sub-groups under the aegis of the famous “nuclear steering group”.
On this point, Marcuz explained: “The JNC, in place since 1992, was primarily a high-level group with no real practical application. From now on, the teams will be working ‘on the ground’, particularly at operational level, the idea being to prepare everything in peacetime so as to be able to implement a common strategy in a highly reactive way in the event of a crisis.”
And on the specific topic of combined SSBN patrols, Marcuz comment: “Combined patrols are not likely as they would have no operational interest. Rather, the idea seems to be to work on coordinating patrols and sending additional SSBNs to sea in the event of a crisis, and therefore to carry out combined strategic signaling.”