Ben Coley’s latest HotelPlanner Tour preview threw up a 50/1 winner and he has five selections for the Italian Challenge.

Golf betting tips: Italian Challenge

3pts win Filippo Celli at 20/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)

2pts win Quim Vidal at 28/1 (General)

2pts win Eddie Pepperell at 33/1 (bet365)

1pt e.w. David Horsey at 50/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Nicholas Infanti at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There should be a sense of urgency around the Italian Challenge this week as the HotelPlanner Tour waves goodbye to Europe, just the top 68 on the Road to Mallorca invited onwards to China for a double-header, after which the top 45 get to the end of that road and the battle for DP World Tour membership.

That urgency comes also from last week’s announcement that, as of 2026, two pathways to the big tour are being narrowed. Q-School goes down from the top 20 and ties to 15 while here on the HPT, a similar cut will take place and it won’t matter whether anyone has earned three-win promotion; they will still take one of just 15 available cards.

This is the year to get yourself onto, or back onto, the DP World Tour and while six of the favourites this week look to have already done enough, others have work to do – EDDIE PEPPERELL in particular.

He’s tried to juggle as best he can this year but is 171st on the Race to Dubai and 77th on the Road to Mallorca, meaning it’s a top-20 finish here to begin a strong end to the season, or else a return trip to Qualifying School, where he so painfully missed out in 2024.

Pepperell ought to at least take comfort in the course, Golf Nazionale, which is a short and hilly par 72. Scoring will likely be low in good weather but not because people overpower this place; instead, we’re looking at a test of precision, one which suited Matteo Manassero when he dominated the last time the event was played here.

With short-game specialists Alex Fitzpatrick and Pierre Pineau close behind and a leaderboard jam packed with players who’ve performed very well at the fiddly and undulating Adamstal in Austria, this looks quite similar to the challenge anticipated in France on the DP World Tour, and quite different to the last couple of weeks on this one.

That’s why I’m willing to take a positive view of Pepperell’s play, with Royal Obidos not ideal. Before that his iron play was back firing in Switzerland, just as it had when 10th in the Nexo Championship at DP World Tour level and when narrowly missing the cut in the British Masters, and on the pick of these performances he has a big chance.

Pepperell’s form book this year has a strange look to it, having started the DP World Tour season with ninth in Mauritius and added four top-10s since then, but taken a break after withdrawing from the Turkish Open following a run of missed cuts. He said at the time that his approach play downturn was the issue, but we’ve seen it come good in recent weeks and that’s enough evidence for me.

He’s underrated around the greens, he can hit mini-driver or three-wood plenty around here, and having always been a parkland specialist who no doubt would’ve had a rueful eye on Wentworth, his blend of class and need could result in his best performance of the year at a course which suits better than most.

It’s worth saying that the Italians do for the most part know Nazionale well as it’s the home of the national squad and has hosted a few notable amateur tournaments plus a handful on the Alps Tour. FILIPPO CELLI won one of the former, Jacopo Vecchi Fossa one of the latter, and while I’m generally much more comfortable playing at bigger odds than shorter, the value lies with Celli.

Whereas Vecchi Fossa has been struggling to get back to his very best on the Alps Tour, Celli has clicked over the past few months on this one, storming to his first win soon after he’d produced three top-five finishes in four starts. In seven appearances at this level since the Italian Open, only once has he failed to feature in the top 10 at some stage.

Granted, over the last two of them he’s not been able to build on opening rounds of 65 and 66 but the first was excusable and while last week was disappointing, it really was just two holes in round two which derailed him. Celli played the 14th and 15th in six-over, falling from close to favouritism to outside the cut line, but recovered impressively with six birdies to the house.

The 15th ended up costing him seven shots over the course of the tournament and having stalled over the weekend he does have a question or two to answer, but he’s a winner here, he’s been 10th in an Italian Open already, he’s in better form than when down the field two years ago, and home advantage counts for a lot at this level.

I believe he’s a far better option than compatriot Stefano Mazzoli and given that Renato Paratore’s record at home is abysmal he’s hard to trust. Lukas Nemecz finds winning very difficult, Rocco Repetto Taylor might not be one for this course, and really the only compelling option beyond Celli is the favourite, JC Ritchie, a winner again last week.

You could justify backing both to be honest but Ritchie secured his card on Sunday and battled strong winds to do it. That might’ve taken enough out of him and he can afford to ease off now, which Celli won’t be doing here on the outskirts of Rome. He could be the eighth home winner in event 25 of the season.

At massive odds, Michele Ortolani is one to consider as he’s been competitive on the PGTI and Asian Development Tours recently and it’s only two months since he was 10th at this level in Austria. In fact he has a handful of decent results to his name this year and having won a local event at Golf Nazionale last November, and been third here at Q-School a few months before that, he can outrun his odds back on home soil.

Vidal so soon?

But while there’s been room for a 2,000/1 skinner in a Swedish shootout three weeks ago, nine of the last 10 winners on this tour were from somewhere close to the front of the market. This event, especially when at this course, has also gone to form, so it’s QUIM VIDAL next as I take three win-only against the field.

This Spaniard showed his liking for the course when 18th here two years ago. At the time he was on the Alps Tour not playing at his best, and it took him until the following spring to register his first top-10 at HotelPlanner Tour level.

Vidal’s progression continued into the spring of this year when he captured the Delhi Challenge, an event won by straight-hitting Parry a year earlier, and that’s Vidal’s game too. When contending for the Scottish Challenge this summer, on a leaderboard packed with similar players, he said: “The course suits me as it’s nice and firm which helps me because I don’t hit it too far.”

Having also played well when 17th behind Parry in this event last year, Vidal had a nice profile before finishes of seventh and fourth over the past fortnight. Truth be told we could’ve done without such an obvious sign of good play at courses I feel suited him less as it puts an immediate ceiling on his price, but his India win came a week after he’d been in front and having led at halfway in Portugal, history could be about to repeat.

I quite like Matthis Besard’s profile but he’s a short price for someone who hasn’t contended all year, or indeed in any pro event so far. I also wonder if we’re seeing the emergence of a player whose strongest club is the driver, given his healthy blend of accuracy and reasonable power, and that’s not the club I want to focus on here.

Instead, DAVID HORSEY gets the vote.

Like Vidal, here we have a shorter hitter who has coped well with two demanding off-the-tee tests over the past fortnight, finishing 33rd and 17th. On the first occasion he was seventh entering Sunday only to falter, then he started well last week and played solidly afterwards.

He’s also missed the cut by a single shot on the Danish Golf Championship recently, a DP World Tour event dominated by big-hitting pair Marco Penge and Rasmus Hojgaard, and just as had been the case in Germany when competitive in a good field, we saw his short-game looking razor-sharp.

Horsey showed he can still get it done when capturing the title at Le Vaudreuil in June, a course with similarities to this one where Vidal has been third and players like Darren Fichardt and Aaron Rai are past champions, and again like Vidal he played well in the Scottish Challenge when he had conditions to suit.

Having progressed nicely since dipping his toe in the water on the big tour and knowing he’ll need at least one massive week to climb from 27th and get his card back, this looks the best opportunity remaining for a player with six top-10s in Italy down the years.

He’d be first in the DP World Tour’s strokes-gained around-the-green stats had he played enough rounds to qualify and, inspired surely by the journey his friend and former teammate Parry has completed, it would not surprise me one bit were he to bag his second win of the year and earn promotion.

Pedro Figueiredo’s exceptional record at Adamstal and solid debut here combine with his recent play for a strong profile on paper, but he’s an especially weak driver and has his limitations. I wondered briefly whether he might do as Hugo Townsend did and win the week after doing OK on home soil, but he’s really not much of a price.

By contrast, his compatriot Daniel Rodrigues is a player of real potential. He beat Figueiredo and others to win the Portugal Golf Tour’s order of merit at the beginning of the year, came through First Stage Q-School recently, and has fared well in limited chances at this level.

With his best performance so far at Adamstal (18th) and something approaching that level just last week (21st), he’s one I had an eye on but it’s still very early days. Maybe he’ll be winning something like this next year.

I am though happy to take a chance on relative unknown NICHOLAS INFANTI, one of the growing number of Americans who has chosen this as their best route back home.

Infanti showed bits and pieces of promise last year but exited Q-School at Stage Two, and then reappeared on the Clutch Pro Tour in May where he won for the first time.

This will be his sixth HPT appearance since and after a shaky start he’s now made his last four cuts, beginning in Brno where a third-round 62 saw him climb to 12th, then Ireland where he was 17th at the same stage before a poor Sunday, followed by 36th and 28th on his latest two starts.

Today in golf research that won’t help anyone, I’ve been trying to work out if one HPT player has Italian roots. Found a person with the same name as his dad, who runs his own YouTube channel about how to make your own pasta. Dug more, and this guy is the dad of the player. DONE.

— Ben Coley (@BenColeyGolf) September 16, 2025

The lates of these began with a 65 to lie fourth and after another small cheque was banked, he went to England for Stage One of Q-School, where he cruised through in third place behind a promising winner. Combined with a recent play-off defeat back on the Clutch circuit, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s playing to a good standard.

I also really like the fact that his win at that admittedly low level came at St Mellion, which is a funky, tight, undulating course, and you can draw ties back to Golf Nazionale through winners Fitzpatrick and Euan Walker.

Plus, Infanti’s family originate from Italy, so that might add to his sense of this being a timely free hit. He’ll have to win to get to China, if he doesn’t he’s off to Stage Two, and at three-figure prices he’s the one dart I’m happy to throw in preference to Romain Wattel, trimmed quickly from an opening 200/1.

Wattel has the Adamstal form I like and led the Italian Open through three rounds 10 years ago, but his career has been hit hard by injuries. He should perhaps get on the phone to Infanti’s dad, Ray, a chiropractor who has worked as part of the PGA Tour’s medical staff and now enjoys making videos about pasta, which I’ve taken as proof of this family’s rich Italian heritage.

What a game indeed.

Posted at 2100 BST on 16/09/25

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