For over two decades, Strictly Come Dancing has brought sparkle to Saturday night television and a brand new group of celebrities are set to compete for the prestigious glitter ball trophy.
After more than 2,600 dances since the show’s inception in 2004, fans are eagerly awaiting what series 23 has in store.
Has the quality of the competition improved? Is the samba still the dance of death? And is Craig Revel Horwood really the harshest judge?
Here is what the data says.
Much like grade inflation across the UK, Strictly Come Dancing has seen its own surge in top marks, with the number of tens handed out by the judges reaching record highs.
Analysis by The Times shows that there were 104 maximum scores awarded in series 22, significantly higher than the measly seven in series two.
Last year the former Love Island contestant Tasha Ghouri broke the record for the number of tens in a single series (33) but ultimately finished as runner-up to the actor and comedian Chris McCausland.
Tasha Ghouri with her dance partner Aljaz Skorjanec
GUY LEVY/BBC/PA
Who wins the show?
While many celebrity couples have benefited from seemingly more favourable judging, it doesn’t always translate into lifting the trophy. In fact, of the six highest-scoring celebrities, all of them have been runners-up.
The chart below compares the average score out of 40 and the number of tens. You can see that being the best dancer isn’t conducive to winning the show.
So, does being the most improved give you a better chance of winning? Liv Walkinshaw, creator of the fan website StrictlyDB, says that fans have come to expect quality from the beginning of the show but the journey of the dancer is what captures the attention. She said: “We were pretty disappointed not to see any outright musicians in the 2025 line-up as they often bring brilliance.
“It seems to be a prerequisite now to guarantee performances of the calibre audiences expect and celebrate, but we doubt anyone with a dance-filled CV will lift the glitter ball. The joy is most definitely in the journey.”
Data suggests this theory holds weight, with some of the winning couples improving by almost 20 points in their final performances compared with week one:
The largest improver is Bill Bailey, who scored a mediocre 20 (adjusted for four judges) in week one but averaged 39 in his final few performances en route to the Strictly crown. The 2021 series winner Rose Ayling-Ellis also showed remarkable improvements with an 18-point difference between her opening and final dances.
Rose Ayling-Ellis and Giovanni Pernice with the glitter ball trophy in 2021
GUY LEVY/BBC/PA
Is Craig really that harsh?
On to the judges. There have been 13 different people on the panel, but only Revel Horwood remains from the original group. He has developed a reputation for being the harshest: scores of two and three are a familiar sight, particularly in the opening weeks, and he has given the fewest tens.
Craig Revel Horwood
DAVE J HOGAN/GETTY IMAGES
He’s also dished out a score of one on ten occasions, nine more than any other judge.
Anton Du Beke, meanwhile, has handed out more tens in five series than Revel Horwood has in 22. Maybe the man once doomed to dancing with the lesser-talented celebrities is making up for lost time — this time with his paddle.
ADRIAN SHERATT FOR THE TIMES
Walkinshaw said that Revel Horwood played the role as the pantomime villain “perfectly”.
She said: “Craig’s harshness is unquestioned and we wouldn’t have it any other way. But it is just an act because he actually brings an important balance and element of detail-orientated feedback to the judging panel, which definitely helps celebrities and pros know what to work on to improve.”
He is undoubtedly tough to please, with an average score of 6.73. The other judges have scored much higher, with Du Beke averaging 8.12, Motsi Mabuse 7.9 and Shirley Ballas 7.74. Only 4 per cent of the dances Revel Horwood has judged have received a ten.
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The toughest dance
Judges aside, it goes without saying that every dance is different. But there are a few in particular that celebrities have struggled with. For example, the samba, a blend of quick footwork and hip movement is critical. More than 30 couples have been eliminated after this dance, the highest number.
Walkinshaw said of the samba: “It can also be something of a farcical routine — allocated early to less successful celebs with questionable music either as a way to inject some humour into proceedings or to oust contestants who might need an early exit due to other commitments. Recent outings by Pete Wicks and Toyah Willcox spring to mind here, though Pete survived to dance another day.”
There have been 23 eliminations for a cha-cha-cha and 22 after a tango.
Timing also plays a part, especially avoiding technical dances in the opening weeks. There have been six eliminations after performing the foxtrot in week two and the same number of eliminations for the samba in week three.
Women tend to have an advantage in dances where male professional dancers can take the lead and the majority of the routine is in hold. This would explain why female celebrities are given higher that average scores in the ballroom field.
The only dance where men outperform women is the salsa, which can be advantageous for performances full of lifts and isolated hip work.
Overall, the cha-cha-cha is the toughest dance for both men and women, with scores averaging just 26.
Does occupation have an influence?
Much has been said about the previous occupations of celebrities and whether having a musical background provides an unfair advantage. Certainly from a scoring perspective, it does.
Musicians score the highest, with some standout performers such as Ashley Roberts, Alesha Dixon and Harry Judd. However, only three musicians have won the competition. Actors have lifted the glitter ball trophy the most times (seven), followed by TV personalities (six).
Strictly isn’t all about high-quality performers, of course, which many politicians can attest too.
MPs have the lowest average score (19.1), perhaps for reasons outside of perfect form and footwork, but Ed Balls’s iconic rendition of Gangnam Style in series 14 is one of the most memorable routines.
Ed Balls and Katya Jones
DAVE J HOGAN/GETTY IMAGES
Viewers will find out on Saturday evening who this year’s celebrity pairings are. The contestants are: Harry Aikines-Aryeetey, Vicky Pattison, Thomas Skinner, Ross King, George Clarke, Stefan Dennis, Dani Dyer, Alex Kingston, Balvinder Sopal, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Karen Carney, Ellie Goldstein, Chris Robshaw, Lewis Cope and La Voix.
The ones who avoid the foxtrot early on just might go the distance.