If Jay Vine’s form – winning the blue polka dot jersey and coming within nine-tenths of a second of beating Ganna at the recent Vuelta time trial – should be an obvious cause for concern for the double Olympic champion, then it’s the presence of the Australian’s trade team-mate Tadej Pogacar on the start ramp that may prove the strongest obstacle between Evenepoel and another slice of history.
Pogacar does not often take part in the time trial events at the world championships – but the mountainous route in Kigali, coupled with the Slovenian’s fine performances against the clock this year, have inspired the 26-year-old to pack his national skinsuit on the plane to Rwanda.
If anything, an hour’s riding on lumpy terrain in race conditions will be solid preparation for the road race one week later, for which defending champion Pogacar will be the outright favourite.
The challenging 40.6km route never drops below 1,400m altitude and features a whopping 680m of vertical gain – compared to 412m at Zurich 2024 and 352m at Sterling 2023.
After rolling down the ramp at the BK Arena, the riders will get into their grove in a fast and largely flat section for the first 8km ahead of the Cote de Nyanza (2.5km at 5.8%).
The first of three climbs is followed by a descent into the Nyabarongo valley ahead of a 180-degree U-turn to tackle the same climb in reverse (6.6km at 3.5%).
UCI Road World Championships Kigali 2025: men’s individual time trial profile
Image credit: From Official Website
Another long 9km descent plays out in several steps ahead of the Cote de Peage (2km at 6%). The riders then negotiate a roundabout on the summit, then descent the climb on the other side of the road before a tight left turn on to the cobbled Cote de Kimihurura (1.3km at 6.3%).
The finish is preceded by a leg-sapping uphill ramp to the line at the Kigali Conference Centre. All in all, 12.2km (30%) of the route is uphill, 13.2km (33%) is downhill, and 15.2km (37%) is flat – making it a test for all-rounders, not just rouleurs, climbers or TT specialists.
Such is the mountainous profile that Ganna – runner-up to Evenepoel for the past two years – has decided to give the worlds a wide berth. But the demanding terrain and high altitude, coupled with the unknowns of the first ever worlds to be held in Africa, could make this a highly unpredictable ITT where someone could spring a surprise.
Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at our Kigali 2025 World Championships men’s individual time trial power rankings, in reverse order.
10. Magnus Sheffield (USA)
The 23-year-old American sneaks into the top 10 ahead of Belgium’s Ilan Van Wilder, Spanish duo Raul Garcia Pierna and Ivan Romeo, and his Dutch trade team-mate Thymen Arensman, who strained his glute in the Tour of Britain.
Sheffield is an all-or-nothing kind of rider, so could go really well, or could equally blow up on the tricky course in Rwanda. His 31st place in La Vuelta’s TT does not bode well, but Sheffield will prefer the hillier terrain to the flat offering from Valladolid.
9. Matteo Sobrero (Italy)
The 28-year-old Italian probably stands a better chance than his Italian team-mate Mattia Cattaneo, having had the opportnity to condition himself during three mountainous weeks in Spain for La Vuelta.
Sobrero was national TT champion in 2021 but could only take 64th in La Vuelta’s race of truth to Valladolid – although his priorities there were very much aligned to helping out his Red Bull team-mates Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari in their GC push.
8. Paul Seixas (France)
Paul Seixas
Image credit: Getty Images
The reigning junior world time trial champion takes a step up to the big boys’ division. Seixas’ last race for Decathlon, back in late August, saw him win the Tour de l’Avenir after triumphing in the final day uphill time trial to La Rosiere. He also won the opening day prologue in Tignes, which bodes doubly well – although the opposition in Kigali will be far stiffer.
When the 18-year-old has gone head-to-head with the pros this season, he took a solid if unspectacular 10th place in the Dauphine’s time trial – well over a minute down on the winner, Evenepoel.
7. Primoz Roglic (Slovenia)
Somewhat eclipsed by his compatriot Pogacar ever since that final time trial implosion at La Planche de Belles Filles back in 2020, Roglic remains a force to be reckoned with.
The 35-year-old was third in the Tour’s mountainous time trial, 1’20″ ahead of Evenepoel but trailing Pogacar by the same time. It’s easy to forget that Roglic has 18 professional time trial wins to his name, most notably the Olympic title in 2021 at Tokyo. With Pogacar expected to dominate the road race, his compatriot may pass under the radar and push for a medal against the clock.
6. Luke Plapp (Australia)
You might have spotted a theme or unifying factor so far – namely, that none of these early names in the power rankings stand a realistic chance of winning gold. It rings true with Plapp, too – although he has much more of a pedigree than his forerunners.
The 24-year-old is a three-time national champion and a former U23 silver medallist, and he broke into the top 10 of both time trials during the Tour de France, finishing ninth in Caen and, notably, fifth in the uphill test to Peyragudes (where he beat Evenepoel quite comfortably).
‘That corner is dodgy!’ – Plapp goes down on ‘slippery’ part of road on Stage 2
Video credit: TNT Sports
Earlier in the season, Plapp came seventh in the Giro’s time trial between Lucca and Pisa, so he’s clearly no slouch, although he crashed in the earlier Tijana TT. While gold is beyond him, with a little luck – combined with some off-days for the favourites – there could be an outside chance of a bronze for the Jayco-AlUla rider.
5. Bruno Armirail (France)
Three-time national time trial champion Armirail has had a fine season for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, performing consistently well, regularly featuring in breakaways, and earning a high-profile move to Visma-Lease a Bike for 2026 in the process.
The 31-year-old was fourth in the Vuelta’s TT at Valladolid, fourth also in the Tour’s flat TT in Caen, and just made the top 20 for the uphill TT to Peyragudes. Armirail twice topped the KOM standings in stage races – at Itzulia Basque Country and the Dauphine – so he has the profile to put in a good time in Kigali.
4. Stefan Kung (Switzerland)
A mistake on one of the roundabouts did for his chances in the Vuelta’s TT in Valladolid, but the 31-year-old Swiss powerhouse remains – on his day – one of the peloton’s strongest riders against the clock, despite morphing more into a Classics specialist of late.
Twice a European TT champion, Kung would prefer a flatter course. But unlike Ganna, the Rwandan hills have not kept him off the plane to Kigali. Illness derailed his first week of the Vuelta, but Kung rode into solid form in Spain and should reach his peak in time for the worlds.
3. Remco Evenepoel (Belgium)
‘That was special’ – Evenepoel delivers ‘supersonic ride’ to win Stage 4
Video credit: TNT Sports
Surely it would take a brave man to mark the double defending champion as only the third favourite for time trial glory?
Evenepoel beat Ganna by eight seconds in Zurich and 12 seconds in Sterling; with the Italian absent, then Evenepoel must be the favourite? Especially given the convincing manner in which he beat Pogacar and the entire peloton in the Tour’s 32km time trial in Caen, not to mention his TT triumphs earlier in the season at Romandie and the Dauphine.
Perhaps. But the Belgian – albeit one likely to have been hampered by illness – could only finish 12th in the uphill time trial to Peyragudes, where he conceded a whopping 2’40″ on the 8km climb. With more climbing in Kigali, his dominance on the flat could be even further negated by his rivals.
That said, Evenepoel doesn’t seem to be worried by the presence of Pogacar, dismissing his rival as a mere “extra challenger” prior to the event.
2. Tadej Pogacar (Slovenia)
On paper and in most people’s heads – not to mention hearts – Pogacar will be No. 1 on a course that entirely suits his broad skillset.
This is a rider so sure of his form that he is even prepared to sit up and let his trade team-mates win races he could otherwise win at a canter – as we saw with Brandon McNulty’s triumph in Montreal.
Pogacar was so clinical in the Tour’s uphill time trial that it almost seems offensive to think anyone else can take the gold medal in Kigali. But how much of an eye will the 26-year-old have on the following weekend’s road race?
If Pogacar doesn’t go all in where some of his rivals may, then that could be the difference between gold, silver and bronze. And it’s also worth remembering that Pogacar has notoriously struggled in world championships TT events – most recently in Stirling, where he finished over three minutes behind Evenepoel in 21st.
In 2022, he came sixth in Wollongong and in 2021 he could only muster 10th in Bruges. Perhaps the swashbuckling Slovenian is just not destined ever to don a rainbow skinsuit.
1. Jay Vine (Australia)
Jay Vine glaubte kurz, er hätte das Zeitfahren auf der 18. Vuelta-Etappe gewonnen
Image credit: Getty Images
The Vuelta’s King of the Mountains finished just nine-tenths of a second behind Ganna in the 12km time trial at Valladolid earlier in the month while sporting the climber’s blue polka dots – showcasing the exact skillset he’ll need to triumph in Kigali.
A former national time trial champion who picked up two mountaintop wins in Spain this month, 29-year-old Vine is in the form of his life. And with everyone expecting either his trade team-mate Pogacar or the defending champion Evenepoel to win gold, Vine could sneak in and pull off something special.
Ranking Vine above the best mountain time triallist of his generation and the double reigning champion may appear far-fetched, but these are the world championships – being held in Africa for the first time in extremely hot conditions – so there are bound to be shocks and surprises.
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