Kigali > Kigali 271km
The big one is here, the men’s road race in Kigali. Can Remco become the first man in history to do the ITT/RR double? Can Pogačar win consecutive road race titles and join the likes of Alaphilippe, Sagan and Bettini? Will we see a surprise winner?
Weather
It looks like rain showers in the morning, which should dry up as the day goes on. The temperature will be 28 degrees, the rain should help those who don’t like the hot/humid conditions.
Key Points
The race begins with 9 laps of this circuit, before heading out to do the single ascent of Mont Kigali.
5.7km at 6.4%, with a maximum of 15.9%. You can see it’s a staircase climb, with three main climbing sections and two bits of flat. The crest comes with 105km still to race, making the importance of the climb somewhat unknown. After, it’s back to the circuit, but via the Mur de Kigali.
Around 500m at 10% and the cobbles are proper rough, this is like something you’d see in Flanders. Think Paterberg but without the gutter.
The circuit contains two climbs, this is Côte de Kigali Golf, 800m at 8.2%, with a maximum of 10.7%.
The main event of the circuit is the cobbled climb, Côte de Kimihurura, 1.2km at 6%, with a maximum of 12.8%. This is the one you would have seen in the TT, it’s properly steep at the bottom and the cobbles are fairly rough.
This is the final 600m, which is the same finish you’ve seen in all the races this week.
Tactics
This is being billed as the Remco/Pogi show, a couple of weeks ago it was simply the Pogi show, funny how things work out in this sport. All eyes will be on Belgium and Slovenia, how will they approach the race? The Slovenians are the only squad with nine riders, but despite having the numerical advantage, they look weak. The team will be hoping that Roglič and Mohorič can survive deep into the race, they rest of them don’t stand a chance. Belgium has eight riders, they have a stronger unit than the Slovenians, Hermans and Van Wilder will be expected to make a significant contribution in the finale.
Denmark, Italy, GB, France, Australia and Spain are the other squads with eight men, which should give them an advantage. I say should as the overall start list is weak compared to other years, some of these teams are padded out with lots of domestiques. I think the French look the strongest on paper, they’ll hope the race plays out that way.
Last year, Pogačar attacked with 101km to go, and despite a few hairy moments, he managed to hold on for the win. Given how he looked in the TT, I’d be amazed if he tried something similar this year. Attacking from such a distance always carries risk, given his current shape, he has to wait until nearer the finish. The thing about waiting is that it also carries risk, there’s a greater chance of a group getting up the road and those left in the peloton not having any domestiques left to help chase. So, just how will this race pan out?
Slovenia are duty bound to control the break, I’d expect Belgium to lay down a marker and also help with the chase. The first interesting moment should be Mont Kigali, will a counter move go at this point featuring some of the co-leaders/plan Bs? Some riders have to use this climb to get ahead of the peloton, this is their only chance of surviving deep into the finale and going for a decent result. Then we have the battle in the peloton.
Most will look at Pogačar and Evenepoel and think the only way of winning is to attack before the real finale kicks off, which will add some chaos into proceedings. If Slovenia and Belgium look to get riders into a move, it will be interesting to see who then chases in the peloton. I’ve already mentioned that France look strong, they have multiple riders who can challenge for the podium, expect to see them looking to join every move.
Back to Slovenia. The key for them has to be Roglič, but he only arrived in Rwanda on Friday, which is a debatable approach. If good, he’s the one who can last with Pogačar, but if he’s not at the races, Pogačar won’t have help in the final 40km. When he runs out of support, this is when Pogačar normally attacks, no matter how far out it is. Evenepoel is in a different position, he’ll hope to have domestiques to help chase or to attack and put pressure on Pogačar. Van Wilder showed in the TT he’s in good form, Hermans has also been going well in recent races, I’d expect these two to be very useful for Remco.
Exactly where and when the race splits is impossible to predict before the race. Mont Kigali and Mur de Kigali can be used to detonate the peloton and massively slim down the group, despite the crest of the Mur coming with 100km to go. I’m praying it kicks off here, I cannot stress how hard Mur de Kigali is, even though it’s only 500m long.
Championship races like this are a nightmare to predict, just look at last year. The lap circuit is challenging, it’s a long race, we’re late in the season, the race takes place at altitude, it’s probably going to be humid, some riders come from the Vuelta and form is unknown, others approach with only a handful of races in the legs, I think you can see why it’s hard to predict. In terms of difficulty, it’s about as hard as you can get. Very long, a huge amount of climbing, tough cobbled climbs and the race takes place at altitude, the ingredients are all there for a brilliant race. I think it explodes on Mont Kigali and Mur de Kigali, allowing a strong group to get ahead of the peloton. When the favourites start to fire, a handful of them will make it across to the front and fight for the win. Those in the earlier move have a great chance of taking home a medal.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar – I didn’t think he’d win Montréal or the TT, the signs were clear that he wasn’t at his best. His illness before Canada clearly had a big impact on him, but I think more important than that was his decision to not go to altitude after the Tour de France. To win this race, his level needs to rise significantly, his TT was as poor as I’ve seen him in recent years. Of course, this is Pogačar I’m talking about, the best cyclist there’s ever been, he is capable of turning things around and taking the win. From a racing point of view, I’d like to see him isolated early, will he do his usual and go long? Because of who he is, he’s still starting the race as the big favourite.
Remco Evenepoel – what a sensational performance last Sunday, winning by 1:14 and catching Pogačar was huge. Remco’s preparation for this race has been perfect, he went to altitude and got some decent racing in the legs in the Tour of Britain. I wouldn’t normally think a cobbled climb suits him more than Pogačar, but he was better than him on Côte de Kimihurura last week. When Remco is in this shape, he’s a very hard man to beat, even for the mighty Pogačar.
Isaac Del Toro – can he cope with a race this long and challenging? He’s already got 64 race days in his legs, that’s a lot for someone so young. He was decent enough in the TT, but not as good as I had hoped. His record this season is very impressive, 13 wins is a sensational return, but winning a race like this at 21 is too much in my opinion.
Julian Alaphilippe – won in Québec but was sick after, which led to his withdrawal in Montréal. He’s said it took him quite a few days to recover, at one point earlier this week he still doubted whether he’d recover in time, but he now says everything is good again. I’m sorry to say that given his preparation, he won’t be a feature in the finale.
Ben Healy – if anyone can upset the big two, it’s Ben Healy. Luxembourg was used to sharpen him up, day by day he looked stronger and stronger. You just know he’s going to go long and try to put pressure on Evenepoel and Pogačar. If they look at each other, Healy has what it takes to disappear up the road and take the rainbow jersey.
Juan Ayuso – imagine the scenes if he beats Pogačar in a sprint! It’s been announced that he’s leaving UAE and is off to Lidl – Trek, it wasn’t a big surprise as the Spaniard didn’t really get on with some of his teammates. His performance in the Vuelta was a little bizarre, good enough to win two stages, but not good enough to do much for Almeida. Having saved some energy throughout the Vuelta, he could be one of the best in this race.
Tom Pidcock – this is the first time he’s done a 3-week race and then tried to peak again straight after. This is not an easy thing to do, but then again, the Vuelta wasn’t the hardest race in the world. This type of race is very good for the Englishman, he would normally be good here, but it’s all to do with his post-Vuelta recovery.
Quinn Simmons – 9th last year was a big result; I think he can do even better this year. Quinn was brilliant in the Tour de France, frequently making breakaways and looked to take the next step in his career. Recently, he was 3rd in Montréal, a very good indicator of what he can do in Rwanda. I’ll name him as my dark horse for the podium.
Richard Carapaz – when at his best, he’s still one of the best in the world. The altitude will give him a slight advantage and he knows how to win big races.
Mattias Skjelmose – despite a decent performance in Luxembourg, I get the feeling his level is a little under his best, mainly due to his interrupted season. I don’t see him fighting for the podium.
Giulio Ciccone – started the Vuelta in great form but then faded and the rumour was he developed a saddle sore and picked up a fever. This race takes place just 2 weeks after the final stage in Madrid, I’m doubtful about his chances.
Jay Vine – one day races and Jay Vine go together like chalk and cheese, most of the time, he doesn’t even bother to race them. However, the form is clearly very good, but can he be trusted?
Prediction Time
Given what’s happened over the last couple of weeks, I’m going with Remco Evenepoel.
Betting Corner
That’s a crazy price for Pogačar, you need your head read I’ve you’re considering putting money on him. Yes, he can win, but with what happened last week I’d be looking at 1/1. Some of you will be drawn to riders at long odds, but remember, surprises don’t often happen in a race like this. I think Remco wins and I’ll happily put my money where my mouth is.
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