It’s getting even harder for Americans to find a job.
In September, US private payrolls dropped by 32,000 jobs, according to the ADP employment report.
The numbers shocked analysts. Economists polled by Reuters expected private companies would increase employment by 50,000.
The Wednesday release also majorly downgraded its August jobs estimate. Initially, data showed companies added 54,000 jobs, but now, ADP predicts the US private economy lost 3,000 positions.
It’s a reminder that ADP’s numbers are volatile and often revised, but the downward momentum is consistent.
Hospitality jobs were the worst affected, with the sector losing 19,000 positions last month. America’s manufacturing industry incurred another slowdown, losing 2,000 jobs.
Small businesses continue to slash positions, while larger companies are slightly expanding hiring.
Data also suggest that some regions have been harder hit by job slowdowns: America’s Midwest lost 63,000 positions, while the Northeast gained 21,000.
Economists predicted that American companies would increase private jobs by 50,000 last month – but new data suggests they slashed 32,000 positions
Your browser does not support iframes.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, is taking on greater importance from investors seeking fresh clues on the labor market, as the Labor Department’s more comprehensive and closely followed employment report for September will not be published on Friday.
The US government shut down at midnight on Tuesday after funding lapsed, and the Labor and Commerce departments said on Monday that all data releases would be suspended during a shutdown.
Investment analysts previously told the Daily Mail that they have more confidence in the BLS’s statistics.
The government-funded data includes government jobs that are not reflected in ADP’s findings. Historically, the BLS’s numbers have smaller revisions than those of ADP.
But, with the government struggling through the budget impasse, investors are turning their focus to private data.
The weekly jobless claims report on Thursday will also not be published.
‘The suspension of economic statistical releases will make it harder to track the state of the economy during the shutdown,’ said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.
‘That may cause financial markets to react more than usual to private data releases, like ADP and Ward’s tally of car and light truck sales.’
Fewer small businesses are hiring, ADP data showed on Wednesday. Americans in the Midwest were the hardest hit, with 62,000 jobs cut last month – meanwhile, the Northeast saw the biggest gains, with 21,000 jobs added
Construction and manufacturing positions have continually been slashed this year, with building companies slashing 5,000 jobs and good-making companies cutting 2,000 positions
Government data on Tuesday also showed a lethargic labor market, with job openings rising moderately in August and hiring subdued.
But, that might be good news for Wall Street investors.
Economists expect that labor market stagnation will spur the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in October.
The Fed has a dual mandate: keep inflation low and employment strong.
Its main tool is the short-term US interest rate, which it raises when prices climb and lowers when unemployment accelerates.
The US central bank eased the rate for the first time in 2025 last month, cutting its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00 percent-4.25 percent range.
That could make the cost of borrowing money — and the price of hiring more workers — cheaper for large businesses.
Investors sent stocks moderately higher in the days following the release, believing the Fed would continue to slash rates through the rest of the year.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, said it was important to cut interest rates to aid the labor market.
‘It’s an interesting labor market,’ Powell said in comments after the Fed’s decision. ‘You see people who are more at the margins — kids coming out of college, minorities — are struggling to find jobs.’