The increasing despondency coming out of Australia about the chances of Pat Cummins making the opening Ashes Test, immediately elicits two conflicting responses: the first is the natural disappointment felt by those who like to see an optimal contest driven by the great players of the day; the second — quickly overwhelming the first — is that England’s chances, already decent in my opinion, will be much stronger still.
Those hounds in the Australian press box with their noses closest to the scent have been downbeat for a while about Cummins, who experienced lumbar stiffness during Australia’s tour to the Caribbean in July after their World Test Championship defeat at Lord’s. This week, although there was no formal news from Cricket Australia, that feeling strengthened as Cummins has still not been given clearance to bowl, with the Ashes now just six weeks away.
That leaves an extremely tight timeline and one that is increasingly unrealistic given that he has not bowled a ball in almost three months. It is hard to think of another Australia player who would be a bigger miss. Travis Head? Steve Smith? Given Australia’s sketchy batting, they are hugely significant, but Cummins, as cricketer and captain, is their most important player.
With the start of the Ashes just six weeks away, Cummins still has not been given clearance to bowl
REUTERS/ANDREW BOYERS
His absence, would leave the Australian selectors, already doing a serious bout of head-scratching over the make-up of their top three, with a giant hole to fill: captain, leader, strike bowler, bringer of balance by dint of the ballast he offers at No8 and a totemic player, who has led his country to Ashes success in 2021-22, as well as World Cup and World Test Championship triumphs in 2023.
For all his broader leadership qualities, the biggest miss would undoubtedly be his bowling. Unquestionably, Cummins is a great fast bowler, the type of which simply don’t come along very often. He has taken 309 wickets in 71 Tests at an average of a little more than 22 runs per wicket. That, along with a strike rate of 45, places him among the very elite, not just presently, but among those fast bowlers who have ever played the game. He is sharp, accurate and relentless.
Some weeks ago, David Warner suggested that Josh Hazlewood would be eyeing up Joe Root’s front pad, which, he intimated, would loom like a giant, inviting surfboard to the fast bowler. Hazlewood has dismissed Root ten times in 18 Tests (only three times lbw, by the way) for an average of 36 runs off his bowling per dismissal. Cummins, though, has dismissed Root 11 times, for an average of 23. No bowler has sent Root packing more often in Test cricket.
Root perishes to Cummins in the 2023 Headingley Test, one of 11 occasions that the Australia captain has claimed the upper hand over England’s leading batsman
REUTERS/LEE SMITH
Cummins is the youngest in an ageing, if brilliant, attack and any absence would ask searching questions of Mitchell Starc, 35, and Hazlewood, 34. The natural replacement, and the man who has stepped into the breach whenever one of the big three is missing, is Scott Boland, who is 36 years of age himself. Boland has a fine record, but holds no fear for a batting line-up that took him for almost five runs an over in the drawn series in 2023, when he took just two wickets in two matches.
Casting our minds back to the start of the 2023 Ashes at Edgbaston, Cummins’s importance in the lower order was obvious. Chasing 281, Australia looked done for when Alex Carey was dismissed with the score 227 for eight, but Cummins, in an unbroken partnership with Nathan Lyon, held his nerve. He made 44 of the most precious runs he will ever make, which highlighted both the balance to the team and strength to the batting he brings, which Boland cannot match — and his competitive nerve and instinct under pressure.
Cummins celebrates after his vital unbeaten 44 at Edgbaston in 2023 helped his side over the line in a tense victory
VISIONHAUS/GETTY IMAGES
That combination of nerve, competitiveness and coolness under pressure — his character, in other words — is what has made him a highly effective captain. There are so many aspects to captaincy that we don’t see, but it is in the dressing room where the magic happens. Dealing with players straightforwardly and honestly while being empathetic towards them remains the area where the biggest gains for a leader can be made. Cummins is highly respected by his peers.
Where they will miss his input least is strategy on the field. It seems like Steve Smith will take the reins, as he has done whenever Cummins has missed matches through injury, and he is very smart tactically. Captaincy tends to improve Smith’s performance as a batsman too: Smith has stepped in for Cummins on six occasions, winning five matches and averaging 60 in the process.
The way the series is scheduled, with its change to the order of the venues, puts huge emphasis on the first two matches, in Perth and Brisbane, from a fast-bowling perspective. Most recent Ashes series have started in Brisbane, then moved to Adelaide, with Perth the third Test, before the traditional Christmas and new year games in Melbourne and Sydney.
This time, the series starts in Perth and then there is a day-night match in Brisbane, both of which, historically, have been the friendliest venues to fast bowlers. If Cummins does not play at the start of the series, he will miss the matches where the fast bowlers will have most impact and where lower-order runs may be at a premium. Boland apart, the state of Australia’s back-up fast bowling is uncertain too.
Rob Key, England’s managing director of men’s cricket, said in the summer: “I always find it slightly frustrating how they [Australia] managed to keep those bowlers fit for almost everything.” That envy has stretched for some time, given how well Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood and off spinner Nathan Lyon have combined. With Hazlewood five wickets shy of 300, Australia are close to being able to boast a four-pronged attack with 300 Test wickets or more each, which would be a first.
Of course, attention will turn to England’s fast-bowling stocks soon enough and their readiness between stepping off the plane in Perth and that first Test. Mark Wood’s fitness must be questionable, too, but if he and Jofra Archer are fit, it is certain that Ben Stokes will want to try to hit Australia hard early on. With a significant rest in between those first two matches, those first three weeks hold the key to the series.
Six weeks away, nothing is yet certain. Cummins, though, is running out of time. Should he be missing in Perth it would unquestionably be bad for the series and bad for Australia, but give a huge lift to an England team looking to win their first Test — never mind series — in the country for more than a decade.
Ashes scheduleFirst Test Nov 21-25
Optus Stadium, Perth Second Test Dec 4-8
The Gabba, BrisbaneThird Test Dec 17-21
Adelaide OvalFourth Test Dec 26-30
MCG, MelbourneFifth Test Jan 4-8
SCG, Sydney