“We’re in a position where we think the labour markets may be still a little bit tight,” she said. “If we get a strong pickup in growth … there might be some upside risk.”
At the same time, she noted that a sustained surge in household spending was not guaranteed. “It’s also possible, though, that what we saw in the June quarter with respect to (the uptick in) consumption isn’t maintained.”
Energy rebates and inflation dynamics
Bullock pointed to temporary government energy rebates as a factor that will distort the inflation path over the coming months.
“The Commonwealth (rebates) have been extended until the end of the year, so that will continue to subtract about a point two from inflation. Then when they come off, that will get given back,” she said.
For lenders and mortgage market analysts, her comments signal a period of potential volatility in headline inflation readings, complicating efforts to predict the timing of further policy adjustments.