INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Betting the Maryland Million with Ed DeRosa

There have been two very obvious winners over the past ten years of the Maryland Million stakes

program at Laurel:

The local horsemen who share in the spoils of a regional breeding program that incentives supporting Maryland bloodstock and farms, and
Jockey Jevian Toledo, who has won 18 races on Maryland Million days dating back to 2015. That’s double the next-closest jockeys, but most impressive is the more-than-double flat-bet profit when betting him blindly.

Perhaps another group of winners, then, could be defined as his fellow jockeys competing in the Maryland Million Stakes because despite that being the most lucrative race of the program, Toledo does not have a mount in it.

Toledo does, however, have nine mounts on the 12-race program, including some big prices on the morning line with none bigger than No. 5 Bay Street at 20-to-1 in race 10 the Maryland Million Ladies Stakes for older females going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.

Bay Street really had no chance last out when deep in the field and wide throughout a 5 ½-furlong sprint off a layoff, but now she gets to stretch back out, and while stakes is a jump in class, she has races competitive with this field. Given the top jockey on board, she is a must use at a big price.

There is a lot more parity on the trainer side of things with three different conditioners all tied with five wins apiece and another trio with four wins each. Amazingly, none of those six trainers have a flat-bet profit, which means you do not need to lean on the big names such as Brittany Russell and Michael Trombetta in these spots. You can trust a solid horseman/horsewoman to have horses ready at bigger prices.

Admittedly, the Maryland Million Classic (race 11) is unlikely to be one of those races, as No. 5 Post Time just looks better than these. I liked him to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so it’s hard for me to go against him here–even at a super short price.

The nightcap is the Maryland Million Sprint, and No. 5 Slam Notion figures to be every bit of 5-to-2 against some known Bay State sprinters. There is a lot of speed in this race, so Toledo (who else) figures to work a good trip for this Robert Bailes trainee. 

Ed DeRosa