THE stock market could continue moving sideways this week as investors weigh bargain-hunting opportunities against lingering economic and political risks, analysts said.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) was rangebound last week and closed at 6,089.53 on Friday. While up 0.86 percent week on week, it has fallen by 6.73 percent since the start of the year.
Philstocks Financial Inc. research manager Japhet Tantiangco said the market’s movement reflected “investors’ indecisiveness in terms of direction.”
“For the last three weeks, the local market has been moving sideways, reflecting investors’ indecisiveness in terms of direction,” he said, even at undervalued levels that present bargain-hunting opportunities.
Tantiangco, however, acknowledged that concerns over “the Philippines’ tempered outlook amid the corruption issues and offshore headwinds pose downside risks.”
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“For the most part, trading has been tepid, reflecting low investor participation as many stay on the sidelines amid the uncertainties,” he added.
This week’s movement, Tantiangco said, will depend on how investors weigh bargain opportunities against lingering risks, adding that “fresh leads are deemed needed to push the market into a specific direction with conviction.”
Cues could come from global financial movements, while improvements in the peso and local treasury yields “may give the market’s movement an upward bias.”
“Chartwise, the local market managed to hold its position above its 10-day exponential moving average in last week’s trading, which is taken as a positive sign,” Tantiangco said.
Online stock brokerage firm 2TradeAsia.com, meanwhile, said investors were closely monitoring global central bank actions and geopolitical developments.
“The Fed (US Federal Reserve) edges toward easing with a 25-[basis point] cut widely anticipated at the October 28-29 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, alongside signals that quantitative tightening could wrap up in early 2025 as reserves stabilize,” it said.
2TradeAsia noted that “messaging from Fed officials remains divided… amid sticky inflation and softening jobs data,” a situation that amplifies “global uncertainties, particularly in emerging markets.”
“Benign local inflation,” meanwhile, could pave the way for another 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in December.
Investors should favor “resilient plays to harness near-term rate relief” while remaining cautious, 2TradeAsia said, as “volatility rewards the vigilant; trim risks, hunt value.”