“Hate to write riders off, but Jonas Vingegaard has reached his ceiling” – French ex-pros claim Tadej Pogacar is without clear rival heading into 2026

Pogacar’s shadow over the pelotonFritsch, who raced professionally in the early 2000s, believes the dynamic has shifted decisively since Vingegaard’s peak in 2023, when he crushed Pogacar in the Combloux time trial en route to his second Tour de France victory.

“His high point was that time trial,” Fritsch reflected. “Since then, he’s had that heavy crash, he’s come back from very far, and I just don’t see him returning to that level. Maybe he can still win a Grand Tour if Pogacar isn’t there – but only then.”

Chainel, a long-time Eurosport pundit and former FDJ and AG2R rider, agreed that Pogacar now stands alone at the top of the sport. “Vingegaard is still the second best in the world, which says a lot about his class,” Chainel said. “But if everything goes as normal, he can’t beat Pogacar head-to-head anymore. He’ll still win plenty, but not against Tadej on equal terms.”

Both analysts suggested that Vingegaard could shift focus in 2026, with the Giro d’Italia appearing a more realistic objective. “If I were him, I’d go for the Giro and try to win all three Grand Tours in my career,” Fritsch added. “It might look like avoiding Pogacar, but strategically, it makes sense.”

Van der Poel and Evenepoel the springtime threatsBeyond the Grand Tours, Fritsch highlighted that Pogacar’s greatest challenges could again come in the spring classics — particularly from Mathieu van der Poel and Remco Evenepoel.

“Van der Poel has proven he can rival Pogacar on his own terrain — Milano–Sanremo, Paris–Roubaix — provided he’s at 100%,” Fritsch said. “At the Tour of Flanders, Pogacar seemed to have the upper hand, but in March and April, Mathieu will be back as a rival.”

As for Evenepoel, his late-season surge left both pundits convinced he could be the one to truly test Pogacar’s range across multiple terrains. “He’s never been stronger than he was at the end of 2025,” said Fritsch. “For once, he had an uninterrupted build-up without crashes or setbacks. He’ll start 2026 from a great base, and with his new team environment, he can still improve.”

The Pogacar problem

Still, both men returned to the same unavoidable conclusion — Pogacar remains the reference point for everyone else. “If I had to bet,” Fritsch said bluntly, “I’d obviously back Pogacar for another dominant Tour de France victory in 2026. Unfortunately for the suspense, there’s no one really at his level right now.”

Chainel summed it up with a nod to the Slovenian’s enduring motivation: “Pogacar is still progressing, still hungry. That’s the scary part. When the best rider in the world keeps finding new ways to improve, there’s not much the others can do.”