Twenty-three nations have already booked their place at the 2027 Rugby World Cup, leaving one final spot to be decided at the Final Qualification Tournament.
Set to take place from 8–18 November, Namibia, Belgium, Samoa and Brazil will battle it out for a ticket to Australia — the final stop before the World Cup qualification train leaves the station.
So, who’s in pole position? Who are the underdogs? And which players should you keep an eye on?
SAMOA
Player to watch: Abraham Papali’i (Castres)
Captain: Michael Ala’alatoa (Clermont)
Head coach: Tusi Pisi (Samoa)
World Cup appearances: Nine
A never-ending rollercoaster — that’s been Samoa’s story in recent years. After a promising World Cup showing, the Manu Samoa faltered in both the Pacific Nations Cup (6th place) and the Pacific–South America playoff, missing out on automatic qualification for 2027.
The post-2023 departure of several big-name stars exposed squad depth issues, limiting Tusi Pisi’s ability to manage injuries and player availability.
Still, there’s enough talent to mount a serious push, with Alamanda Motuga, Abraham Papali’i, Christian Leali’ifano, Michael Ala’alatoa and Connor Tupai all central to their cause. Samoa’s chances rise sharply if key players like scrum-half Jonathan Taumateine, USA Perpignan centre Duncan Paia’aua and hooker Sama Malolo return to the fold.
Although Samoa have never lost to any of their Final Qualification Tournament rivals, they’ll need to rediscover their spark and self-belief to avoid any shocks come November. Replicate last year’s effort against Italy, and qualification looks likely.
Player to watch: Castres’ Abraham Papali’i is one of the fiercest operators in the Top 14. Since his debut for Samoa, the bruising No.8 has made an instant impact — a wrecking ball with offload flair and a knack for unlocking defences.
NAMIBIA
Player to watch: Wian Conradie (New England Free Jacks)
Captain: Prince ?Gaoseb
Head coach: Jacques Burger (Namibia)
World Cup appearances: Seven
After years of dominance in the Africa Rugby Cup, Namibia finally surrendered the title to Zimbabwe, missing out on direct qualification for the first time.
Following the loss of their head coach in July and a string of underwhelming Test windows, the Welwitschias have endured a turbulent post-World Cup period.
Interim coach Jacques Burger now leads the rebuild, intent on restoring pride and securing a vital qualification. To do so, Namibia need the experience of Johan Deysel, Torsten van Jaarsveld and Tiaan Swanepoel, alongside a sharper set-piece and counter-attacking structure.
Prince !Gaoseb of Namibia looks dejected at full-time following the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between Uruguay and Namibia at Parc Olympique on September 27, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
Despite losing Gerswin Mouton to injury, Namibia retain enough firepower to challenge Belgium and Brazil — but can they find a way past Samoa?
The African side have never beaten the Pacific islanders, but with Burger at the helm, this could be the year if they rediscover their edge in time for kick-off.
Player to watch: Wian Conradie defines “tough as nails”. The 31-year-old loose forward relishes contact, built on big tackles and bruising carries. If he hits form, expect mayhem — every collision will count.
BELGIUM
Player to watch: Matias Remue (Stade Toulousain)
Captain: Jens Torfs (Barbezieux)
Head coach: Laurent Doussat (Belgium)
World Cup appearances: None
Nearly two years on from their shock win over Portugal, Belgium have emerged as a genuine fifth force in the Rugby Europe hierarchy.
After years of rebuilding, the Diables Noirs now boast a squad capable of pushing Portugal and Romania, while dispatching the Netherlands to reach this qualification tournament.
Head coach Laurent Doussat can call on RC Vannes forward Charlesty Berguet, Stade Toulousain’s Matias Remue, AS Béziers-Hérault’s William van Bost and Gillian Benoy — a mix of youth and power.
Can they upset Samoa or Namibia? They’ve never beaten either, but Belgium’s ability to create chaos around the breakdown and weaponise the set-piece has frustrated better sides.
It’s a simple formula, but it’s worked — as Portugal, the Netherlands and Canada can all testify. Samoa and Namibia would be wise not to underestimate them.
Player to watch: Matias Remue is among the most exciting U21 backs in emerging rugby nations. The Stade Toulousain utility back has a rare knack for creating something from nothing, his pace and handling already lighting up Belgian wins over the Netherlands and Canada in 2025.
BRAZIL
Player to watch: Carlo Mignot (Biarritz)
Captain: Cléber Dias (Cobras XV)
Head coach: Josh Reeves (Brazil)
World Cup appearances: None
A twist of fate sees Brazil replace Paraguay in the Final Qualification Tournament following the Yacarés’ withdrawal. So, how will the Tupis fare in November?
It’s been a turbulent few months for Brazil. After parting ways with head coach Emiliano Caffera, they suffered a heavy defeat to Paraguay — a result that raised serious questions about their direction.
Even so, the Tupis are experts at playing the underdog card when expectations are low. They can spring surprises if they can rebuild their set-piece into a reliable weapon. Former Western Force prop Will Rebolo and back-rower Caique Segura are key figures up front and will have to lead the charge at scrum and lineout time.
Credit: URP (Union De Rugby Del Paraguay)
In the backs, the gifted Carlo Mignot poses a major threat. The Biarritz utility back can unpick any defence with a flash of his feet, and his creativity gives Brazil a genuine cutting edge.
But Mignot isn’t the only danger man. Centre João Amaral and wing Robson Morais both bring flair and pace, capable of turning a game on its head when given space.
Even if Samoa, Belgium and Namibia look like steep hills to climb, the Tupis have shown before they’re a side that commands respect — especially when cornered.
Player to watch: The tricksters, magicians and wizards of rugby are always worth the ticket, and Carlo Mignot fits that bill perfectly. The elusive Biarritz back can operate as a slick fly-half, a cunning fullback or a sharp centre, adding a few extra flavours to the Tupis’ attack.
PAST ENCOUNTERS
Samoa have never faced Belgium or Brazil but have twice met Namibia — winning both encounters, 40–13 in 2003 and 49–12 in 2011.
Brazil and Belgium first met in 2017, when the Tupis toured Europe, with the South Americans winning 23–19. Last year, Brazil hosted the Diables Noirs at São Paulo’s Estádio Nicolau Alayon and claimed a 47–25 victory.
FIXTURES
Round 1 – November 8
Samoa vs Brazil – 5 PM GST / 2 PM GMT
Belgium vs Namibia – 7.30 PM GST / 4.30 PM GMT
Round 2 – November 13
Belgium vs Brazil – 5 PM GST / 2 PM GMT
Samoa vs Namibia – 7.30 PM GST / 4.30 PM GMT
Round 3 – November 18
Namibia vs Brazil – 5 PM GST / 2 PM GMT
Belgium vs Samoa – 7.30 PM GST / 4.30 PM GMT