In the old days, I remember going into these end-of-year tours and there was always a chip on the shoulder of Southern Hemisphere teams. A feeling that it was unfairly weighted against them. They would complain that they were fatigued after a long season, and they said it was unjust that the European teams had had pre-seasons and that they were relatively fresh, leading to upsets.
Well, that’s changed significantly. Now the South Hemisphere teams are battle-hardened from The Rugby Championship and the South Africans are knees-deep in the URC (United Rugby Championship). They are as prepared as they’ll ever be going into this end-of-year round of fixtures.
Let’s not forget when these Autumn Tests became a fixture in 2004. Sir Clive Woodward had specifically asked for England to face the Southern Hemisphere giants as often as possible because he wanted to crush any mystique of these legendary players from the Southern Cape and Antipodes, and it led him to a World Cup. Warren Gatland, as a Kiwi, understood that and demanded Wales had to face the best sides in the world so he loaded his schedule with games against the All Blacks, the Wallabies and the Boks and they reached two World Cup semi-finals.
Unlike other years, however, this November’s Tests have even more is riding on games because of the World Cup draw on December 3. We’ve hit the back nine, in essence and we’re heading towards the clubhouse in Australia. This is the period where everyone is trying to win the psychological battle and the Test windows start tumbling towards 2027.
For those in the North, they see it as the next two-year block after a Lions tour. That’s how the players view it. Indeed, some of these boys are so fresh they’re barely out of the oven. Welsh captain Jac Morgan only returned last week for the Ospreys and Tom Curry hasn’t played a minute and he’s on the bench tomorrow against Australia. Indeed, there may be merit in finally aligning the global calendar so the Rugby Championship is played at the same time as the Six Nations. You can see why it makes a lot of sense.
South Africa
The Boks have a loaded schedule. First up are the Brave Blossoms at Wembley Stadium. I actually really like the look of their starting side. Sure, they have a new 21-year-old prop in Zachary Porthen, but he has Malcolm Marx and Ox Nche alongside him, who will take him under their wing. RG (Snyman) and Lood (de Jager) are in the engine room, Siya is in the backrow and Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel are back together so there are experienced combinations and most importantly guys who know how to win.
There’s no doubt South Africa are the most settled side in Test rugby these days and it will take a serious performance to beat them this autumn. London-based Bok fans are in a halcyon era because there’s a lot of Test rugby played these days. Rugby fans need deep pockets and I think even the Boks will struggle to fill out Wembley, this coming only a month after they’ve played at the Allianz Stadium. Fans will make choices and they may choose to travel to Paris for the French game, or over to Dublin for the Irish game to follow their heroes.
England
I like how this England side is coming together. You hear stuff coming out of camp like Steve Borthwick is toying with playing Henry Pollock on the wing, or Ben Earl in the centre. Boys with a proper hybrid skill-sets. He’s thinking outside the box and trying to add versatility with all the 6:2 bench splits. Rassie started that and you know what they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery!
I can see the logic in putting (Tommy) Freeman at 13 with (Fraser) Dingwall, who is such a good communicator, inside him. An understanding at club level that can help you when you have milliseconds to make decisions. Having a settled centre partnership is so important in any successful side. You had Mike Tindall and Will Greenwood, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies at Wales, or Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw in Ireland’s golden era. With the spectre of R360 in the background, it’s never been more important Test rugby draws the crowds in and puts on a show.
England have also switched up their coaching ticket. Lee Blackett’s come in and has had rave reviews and I was impressed with Byron McGuigan’s defensive work out in Argentina. Borthwick has also rewarded the players who performed for him out in Argentina, like George Ford and young props Joe Heyes and Fin Baxter. Showing that loyalty is very shrewd and puts pressure on the established order.
New Zealand
Like I’ve been saying all summer, questions remain over the All Blacks. At coaching level, I didn’t expect to see Jason Holland moving on abruptly and they are still tinkering on the field.  Take the midfield. How do they fit Jordie Barrett, Billy Proctor and Quinn Tupaea into two, and is Rieko Ioane now surplus to requirements? In the backrow, Ardie Savea seems to be a constant but Peter Lakai, Wallace Sititi and Simon Parker seem to be playing musical chairs to play alongside him. That Ireland Test in Chicago will set the tone, because there’s a lot of needle between the two after the World Cup. If they can go four from four, they’ll be breathing down the necks of the Springboks.
Ireland
For the first time in a while, there’s a bit of negativity in the media about too many Leinster players picked on reputation over form – Leinster have started poorly by their lofty standards. Ireland coach (Andy Farrell) has been away with the British & Irish Lions and you wonder whether they’ve peaked. They have an issue with an ageing squad, with many stars well into their thirties. Ireland will probably love being written-off and it could work in their favour. I mean, no one expected them to beat the Boks in South Africa or the All Blacks in New Zealand. There’s no doubt they have achieved great things under Farrell who is such a smart coach. He was very canny out with the Lions and there doesn’t seem to have been the collateral damage you’ve seen on previous tours when he hasn’t picked all his own players. Only Robbie Henshaw was left behind, and Josh van der Flier was the big name casualty to miss out on a Test caps but he’s not the type to upset the apple cart. He is a team-first man and a real stand-up guy.
Australia
Tim Horan said something recently that really made sense. He said there has been a real groundswell of positivity in Australia. That they had fared better than many expected against the Lions, that they had cleared their debts and beat the Springboks at Ellis Park for the first time in 62 years.
They’ve also lured Carter Gordon back to union with Mark Nawaqanitawase rumoured to be next on their hit list. However, Horan said this Autumn Tour is the true indicator of whether they’re back at the top table. They’ll be gunning for three wins out of four.
Carter Gordon, Mark Nawaqanitawase of Australia line up during the National Anthems prior to the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between Wales and Australia at Parc Olympique on September 24, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
If they lose every game, it will be deemed a disappointing year, especially on the basis of hosting a World Cup in less than two years. They have a bit of simmering cross-code tension building with NRL and that gets them on the back page and back in the conversation. How a side makes you feel is everything and the Wallabies have made fans care again. Their redemption arc over the last 12-18 months has been a joy to behold. Joe Schmidt maybe moving on but he deserves praise in re-energising the game Down Under.
France
There is a lot going on in France. Prime Ministers are coming and going with alarming frequency and there’s a bit of a febrile atmosphere. It all feeds into the national psyche and a yearning for sporting success and something to cheer about and take their minds off domestic issues.
And why shouldn’t Les Bleus deliver? They have some world class players who can trouble any team. Who doesn’t enjoy Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Damien Penaud running amok? Yet they do have injury concerns. Thomas Ramos is injured, Matthieu Jalibert is also crocked and Antoine Dupont isn’t back until next month, so they’ll be looking to introduce new stars into the global consciousness.
Scotland
When Scotland are on song, they can beat any side in the world, we know that. I am intrigued about Gregor Townsend taking on this second job with Red Bull. Will it be a distraction or will it be an added benefit? I’m not knocking him, but the jury’s out on whether there will be any material effect on the team. The elephant in the room is Franco Smith. He hasn’t hidden the fact he wants to coach internationally again. It feels like an elongated handover, which hasn’t always worked. Townsend could use Newcastle as a trojan horse to develop players who can’t find a spot in Scotland but if he’s mixing with Jurgen Klopp and the like, it could take his eye off the ball. Look what happened with Ian Foster being told he was leaving with Scott Robertson coming in before the World Cup. They still have the wonderful Finn Russell and some dynamic backs, but like the other Celts, a few injuries can leave them short.
Wales
There’s no doubt Steve Tandy has a tough gig on his hands with all the uncertainty domestically. I like that he’s surrounding himself with some coaches in Danny Wilson and Matt Sherratt, who know the Welsh scene intimately. The WRU have taken their time to bring in men who clearly care and have an empathy for a nation. They are desperate to do well. Wales still has talent. Guys like Jac Morgan, Tomos Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit would furnish sides higher up the rankings.
Louis Rees-Zammit – PA
The problem could be that Welsh rugby’s travails have struck at the heart of their support. Apathy is a killer for any team but I have to say I admire how diligent they’ve been in recruiting their new coaching set-up. World Rugby needs a strong Welsh team back. They have provided 35 per cent of the Test Lions over the last century and they are a great rugby nation. It saddens everyone to see how low they’ve been and we need them back.
Argentina
The rugby world has underestimated Los Pumas but for the first time, I think there is a target on their back because of what they’ve achieved in the last 12 months. No Northern Hemisphere sides will think it’s a fait accompli. They are no longer a surprise package. The pressure is on them a bit. They have so many players in the Gallagher Prem and Top 14 and are now a known quantity. Under Felipe Contepomi, expect them to give someone a bloody nose!