The NHS has warned that the coming doctors’ strike combined with an early flu season could make this winter “as tough as the pandemic” for hospitals.
Sir Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, said that accident and emergency departments were likely to experience record demand during a “prolonged and difficult” wave of flu.
Figures published by the UK Health Security Agency on Thursday showed that the country faces a particularly bad flu season after outbreaks started “unusually early”.
Cases are three times higher than usual for this time of year. Some 247 people were admitted to hospital last week and there has been a particular spike among children. There were warning signs in Asia, where Japan has already declared a flu epidemic and closed many schools.
Addressing NHS leaders, Mackey said: “There is likely to be more footfall through A&E this winter than any on record, with a flu season on the horizon that is likely to be prolonged and difficult. This demand, alongside striking staff, means that in a few months’ time many of you will face challenges that could feel like those tough moments we all went through during the pandemic.”
The British Medical Association is calling a strike of thousands of resident doctors, formerly known as junior doctors, from November 14-19 in a dispute over pay and jobs.
The wave of illness will exacerbate “corridor care”
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Mackey said the NHS had started its winter preparations earlier than usual and was encouraged by a high uptake for Covid and flu vaccinations.
Dr Alex Allen, consultant epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “We’re seeing an unusually early start to the flu season, with data showing a sharp increase among children but also increases in other age groups.”
A separate report by Age UK has warned that elderly patients are bearing the brunt of pressures on the NHS and some are dying in hospital corridors. One in three over-90s have to wait at least 12 hours in A&E, analysis found.
About 1.15 million people aged over 60 have waited at least 12 hours in A&E over the past year and instances of corridor care have increased 500-fold in a decade. Testimonies collected by the charity say elderly patients have been left in corridors for days, in soiled sheets, and seeing or hearing people dying around them in scenes like “war films”.
Caroline Abrahams, Age UK charity director, said: “No one should have to spend their final days in a hospital corridor where it’s impossible for the staff to provide good, compassionate care, and it’s shocking that this is what is happening to some very old people in some hospitals, today and every day. As we head into winter, we fear that an already very difficult situation in and around some A&Es will get worse.”
Sir Jim Mackey said winter could bring challenges reminiscent of the pandemic
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Susan, 78, was left in a corridor for hours after a heart attack. “The corridors were lined with patients on hard couches, hooked up to drips, some moaning in pain, some exposed. It reminded me of war films, just beds and queues and people suffering,” she said.
Wes Streeting, the health and social care secretary, said: “For far too long, our NHS has been trapped in a recurring winter crisis — the same problems, the same pressures, year after year.
“That’s why this government started planning for winter earlier than before. We’ve brought together the best NHS leaders — including a new network of chief operating officers — to make sure plans are delivered and patients are protected. Through our Urgent and Emergency Care Plan, we’re investing more funding, in more ambulances, urgent treatment centres and tougher targets to drive real improvements.”