Sports Mole previews Friday’s WTA Finals semi-final between Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Fresh off dispatching Jasmine Paolini in straight sets to reach the WTA Finals semi-finals in Riyadh, Jessica Pegula faces in-form Elena Rybakina in a bid to advance to Saturday’s final.
The American No. 3’s win over Paolini was her 53rd of the season, emulating Serena Williams for most victories in a season after turning 30, and she aims to secure one more to earn a place in another title match, two years after her loss in Cancun.
Match preview
Pegula entered Thursday aware that several scenarios could have unfolded in the Steffi Graf Group; ultimately, the 31-year-old secured a 6-2, 6-3 victory to defeat the Italian No. 1.
Aryna Sabalenka’s straight-sets triumph over Coco Gauff in the latter match in the group guaranteed the American No. 3’s progression to Friday’s semi-finals in Saudi Arabia, where she will compete for a place in the final of the year-end tournament.
Indeed, it would be intriguing to see how the 2023 runner-up performs on her return to this stage of the competition after being eliminated 12 months ago following an injury that limited her to just two of her three round-robin matches.
This year has been different, with a 2-1 record in the Steffi Graf Group boosting the nine-time WTA champion, who finished behind Sabalenka thanks to the Belarusian going 3-0, albeit after dropping a set in her victory over Pegula.
Nevertheless, the 2024 US Open runner-up responded against an admittedly eliminated and exhausted Paolini to reach the semi-finals in Riyadh, mirroring Williams’s achievement in the process.
Aspiring for a 54th victory of 2025 against Rybakina will be a challenging task, especially since the 2022 Wimbledon champion entered the year-end finals in top form, securing the title in Ningbo on her way to ultimately qualifying for a third WTA Finals.
After failure to go beyond the group stage in previous appearances, the last player to be assured of participation has since maintained her striking form on the women’s tour, boosting her winning streak to nine to reach the semi-finals.
Seeking a 10th consecutive victory, and her 58th overall, the former world No. 3 aims to improve her 57-19 record by beating Pegula and reaching the final.
Having dropped just three sets during this ongoing run — to Dayana Yastremska and Ekaterina Alexandrova in Ningbo and Iga Swiatek at the year-end event — Rybakina now aims for her 42nd hard-court win to better her 41-13 record on the surface at her opponent’s expense.
Victory will mark the 26-year-old’s sixth consecutive win over a top-10 opponent on a hard court in 2025 and her 10th overall, as she aims to improve her 9-4 record in such matches this year, vying for a place in the title match in Riyadh.
Tournament so far
Jessica Pegula:
Round Robin: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 6-7[4] 6-2
Round Robin:Â vs. Aryna Sabalenka 4-6 6-2 3-6
Round Robin:Â vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-3
Elena Rybakina:
Round Robin: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-1
Round Robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 3-6 6-1 6-0
Round Robin: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-4
Head To Head
Billie Jean King Cup (2025) – Group Stage:Â Rybakina 6-4 6-1
WTA Finals (2023) – Round Robin:Â Pegula 7-5 6-2
Miami (2023) – Semi-final:Â Rybakina 7-6(3) 6-4
Guadalajara (2022) – Second Round:Â Pegula 2-6 6-3 7-6(8)
Miami (2022) – Third Round:Â Pegula 6-3 6-4
Pegula leads her head-to-head against Rybakina 3-2 and aims to secure her fourth victory over the 2022 Wimbledon champion.
One of the American’s wins occurred at the WTA Finals in Cancun two years ago, although it was in the round-robin stage, which the eventual runner-up won in straight sets.
Rybakina has since taken revenge on the 2024 US Open runner-up at this year’s Billie Jean King Cup Finals, defeating the American No. 3 in straight sets in September.
All five encounters between the two players have been on hard courts, and four have concluded in two sets.Â
We say: Rybakina to win in two sets
Nobody on the women’s tour is arguably playing at Rybakina’s level right now, and the former Grand Slam champion is favoured to beat Pegula in two sets.
Having not made it through the round-robin stage at her two previous appearances at the year-end tournament, the Kazakhstani is favoured to beat the American No. 1 and reach Saturday’s final.
ID:585271:1false2false3false: from db desktop :LenBod:collect6043:Previews by emailClick here to get Sports Mole’s daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!