An aggressive strain of flu causing record-breaking cases in Australia has been an early warning sign for the UK
A record-breaking flu season in Australia this year is sounding alarm bells for doctors in the UK as the NHS braces for a severe winter crisis.
Sir Jim Mackey, NHS England’s chief executive, issued an early warning this week admitting he expects hospitals to be “at capacity” this winter as the country faces the threat of its worst flu season in years.
He told The Daily Telegraph: “Since stepping into this role, the thought of a long, drawn-out flu season has kept me awake at night.
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“And, unfortunately, it looks like that fear is becoming reality.”
He pointed out that Australia has just “endured its worst flu season on record – over 410,000 cases – and all the signs suggest the NHS will face similar challenges in the months ahead”.
A similar scenario in the UK may, he said, means “from December through to March, our hospitals will be at capacity”.
NHS planning for winter started earlier than usual this year in October but an impending resident doctors’ strike this month is expected to add more pressure to the system.
An aggressive strain of flu is heading to Europe
Australia, Japan and India have all faced a tough flu season already due to the the H3N2 strain of the disease.
The Royal Australian College of GPs (RACGP) announced a record flu season with more than 410,000 lab-confirmed cases.
Dr Michael Wright, president of the RACGP, described the figures as a wake-up call.
He said: “This is not a record we want to be breaking, we must boost vaccination rates and reverse this trend.”
This year has been the worst year on record in Australia for influenza, with around 1.5 per cent of people experiencing a notifiable flu infection or 1544 lab-confirmed cases per 100,000 people – a 10.8 per cent increase on the 2024 record.
Japan has already declared a flu epidemic this autumn, with many schools needing to close.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said on Friday that 57,424 influenza cases were reported nationwide in Japan over the seven days from 27 October, 2.37 times higher than the previous week.
While in India, a significant H3N2 flu wave in September meant nearly 50 to 70 per cent of households in the Dehli region reported flu-like symptoms.
What happens in Australia and Asia is seen as a early warning system for Europe by health bodies including the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the NHS.
The NHS has issued a ‘flu jab SOS’ to increase uptake this season (Photo: Halfpoint Images/Getty)
Last year was a bad season for flu, with 7,757 people in England dying from the virus compared to 3,555 the year before.
And this year is shaping up to be worse as the rise in cases of flu started five weeks earlier than normal, in mid-October, and cases are already triple the number this time last year.
Government data released this week has revealed lab-based positive flu tests increased at weekly mean rate of 10.9 per cent compared with 8.2 per cent in the previous week, while overall weekly hospital admission rate for influenza hospitalisations was increasing at 3.81 per 100,000 compared with 2.44 per 100,000 in the previous week.
Lower vaccine uptake this year
Australia’s flu crisis was exacerbated by a lower uptake of the vaccine this year.
Dr Wright said: “This should act as a wake-up call to all patients across Australia.
“The vaccination rate for young children, who are at increased risk of contracting a severe flu infection, has fallen to just one in four and they’re also coming down with influenza more often than any other cohort.”
Health bosses in the UK fear the same problem could hit hard here this winter.
The NHS has already delivered more than 13 million flu vaccines so far this season.
But on Thursday, it issued a ‘flu jab SOS’ with England’s top nurse warning people to get protected now before the worst of the flu season typically bites.
Who is eligible for a flu vaccine
Flu vaccines on the NHS are available for everyone aged 65 and over, under 65s in clinical risk groups, pregnant women, care home residents and carers, close contacts of those who are immunosuppressed, frontline social care workers, and health and social care staff as well as children.
Mr Barton said: “The vaccine is proven to be safe and help prevent those at risk from getting seriously ill and even hospitalised from flu – so please check your local pharmacy, book an appointment online or by calling 119, or speak to your GP practice today about your winter flu vaccine”.
Covid-19 vaccinations are also available to adults aged 75 and over, older adult care home residents, and people who are immunosuppressed.
Details about the flu vaccine including eligibility, how and where to get them can be found here.
Eligible adults are being urged to come forward now ahead of the flu season peak, as the health service makes 2.4 million vaccination slots available next week.
Duncan Burton, chief nursing officer for England, said: “With just weeks left to ensure best protection against the worst of the flu season, we are issuing an urgent SOS to the eligible people who have yet to get jabbed this year.
“It is vital that the public use the over 2.4 million available appointments we have running next week to stamp out this early wave of flu cases and help shield themselves ahead of winter, when viruses tend to circulate and the NHS faces increased pressure on its services.”
🧵 This autumn the UKHSA is rightly worried, as ‘flu is a real risk…
TLDR:
Clinically Vulnerable people ALL need ‘flu vaccines + antivirals this year (if symptomatic or exposed) + confused infection control guidance.
If you are Clinically Vulnerable, please read on…
— Clinically Vulnerable Families 💙💜💗 (@cv_cev) November 8, 2025
The UK Health Security Agency warned on Thursday that less than a third (28.9 per cent) of people with one or more long-term health conditions (LTHCs) have had a flu vaccine.
Dr Gayatri Amirthalingam, deputy director for immunisation at UKHSA, said: “Every year we see many thousands of people with a long-term health condition being seriously ill in hospital from flu and tragically too many dying, when for many this could be potentially prevented by vaccination.
“We are concerned that many people at risk may not know they are eligible.
“Do not wait or delay, book your vaccine appointment today, because flu is spreading now.”