Nitto ATP FinalsTurin, Italy (indoor hard)

The ATP Tour’s showpiece event gets under way on Sunday with the eight best players of the season gathering to fight it out in Turin for a potential winner’s cheque of more than US$5million.

The year-end world number one spot is also on the line with its destination in Carlos Alcaraz’s hands despite Jannik Sinner’s current position at the rankings summit.

Sinner’s excellent indoor record – he’s also the defending champion here – means he starts as the odds-on favourite for the title.

He and Alcaraz have dominated the game’s big prizes this season but the rest of the field won’t be beaten easily.

As for that field, for the first time I can remember, we get to the day before the tournament without knowing who will actually be competing.

The last spot will be up for grabs in Saturday’s Athens final which Lorenzo Musetti need to win to qualify. Otherwise, Felix Auger-Aliassime will complete the line-up.

There’s also another issue with Novak Djokovic – Musetti’s rival in the Athens final – yet to officially confirm his participation in Athens.

It’s all far from ideal when writing this preview.

What we do know is that this is expected to be the final year of this event in Turin. In previous seasons, the court at the Inalpi Arena has been among the fastest on the tour.

And while there has been talk of it potentially being slowed a bit, to tie in with the slower conditions on offer at the recent Paris Masters, it’s looked pretty slick during player practice this week and it usually only gets faster once the heat of a capacity crowd is thrown into the mix.

The format is a long-standing one – the eight players are split into two groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the knockout semi-finals.

It means you can afford to lose in the group stages (maybe even twice) and still emerge as champion.

So, will this be another Sinner and Alcaraz show or can A N Other muscle in? Let’s take a look at the (potential) field…

JIMMY CONNORS GROUP

Carlos Alcaraz

Best odds – Title: 11/4; Group: 5/6Race position: 1st2025 win-loss record: 67-82025 win-loss record v top 10: 13-32025 titles: 8 – US Open, French Open, Tokyo, Cincinnati, Queen’s Club, Rome, Monte Carlo, RotterdamATP Finals record: 3-4 (24 Gp, 23 SF)Recent form: L32 Paris, W TokyoRecord v group opponents:
Djokovic – overall: 4-5; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 1-3; 2025: 1-1
Fritz – overall: 4-1; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 3-1; 2025: 2-1
De Minaur – overall: 4-0; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 1-0; 2025: 2-0

Alcaraz has battled Jannik Sinner all year to be tennis’ top dog and in that fight the Spaniard will be looking to reclaim the world number one ranking in Turin. However, conditions seem unlikely to be ideal. As already explained, it’s played fast here in the past, aided by a touch of altitude, and the generally lower bounce indoors has proved a problem for the Spaniard in the past. He’s won just one indoor title in his career – in Rotterdam earlier this year – and has often struggled at this time of the season. Alcaraz has lost more than he’s won in Turin and he was also beaten early in Paris recently by Cam Norrie. Remains well fancied by the layers but looks worth taking on here to me.

Novak Djokovic (WITHDREW ON SATURDAY)

Best odds – Title: 20/1; Group: 19/2Race position: 4th2025 win-loss record: 35-112025 win-loss record v top 10: 3-42025 titles: 1 – GenevaATP Finals record: 50-18 (23 W, 22 W, 21 SF, 20 SF, 19 Gp, 18 RU, 16 RU, 15 W, 14 W, 13 W, 12 W, 11 Gp, 10 SF, 09 Gp, 08 W, 07 Gp)Recent form: F (at time of writing) Athens, SF ShanghaiRecord v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 5-4; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 3-1; 2025: 1-1
Fritz – overall: 11-0; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 8-0; 2025: 1-0
De Minaur – overall: 3-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 1-0

Has a terrific record at this tournament, winning it seven times, although how relevant that is this year is open to question. Djokovic has only played 46 matches this season – the fewest in the field – with focus on the Grand Slams. He made the semis of all four but often appeared to be struggling physically, perhaps no surprise at the age of 38. However, it’s best-of-three-sets in Turin and Djokovic spoke after the US Open about how he felt more confident of competing against the elite in that format. Has been serving well in Athens so perhaps he will prove that theory here.

Taylor Fritz

Best odds – Title: 20/1; Group: 8/1Race position: 6th2025 win-loss record: 52-212025 win-loss record v top 10: 3-42025 titles: 2 – Eastbourne, StuttgartATP Finals record: 5-4 (24 RU, 23 SF)Recent form: L16 Paris, L16 Basel, L32 Shanghai, RU TokyoRecord v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 1-4; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 1-3; 2025: 1-2
Djokovic – overall: 0-11; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 0-8; 2025: 0-1
De Minaur – overall: 5-6; indoor hard: 2-2; all hard: 4-5; 2025: 0-0

Fritz has never won an indoor title, although he has played well in Turin in the past two years, making the final 12 months ago. The slick conditions have aided his big serve but his game hasn’t been firing of late with a string of early autumn exits. He hasn’t beaten a top-30 player since the Laver Cup, just after the US Open. May well be battling Djokovic for a semi-final spot but a 0-11 record against the Serb hardly bodes well on that front. Has the ability but will need things to click again in what he’ll hope will be friendly conditions.

Alex de Minaur

Best odds – Title: 40/1; Group: 21/2Race position: 7th2025 win-loss record: 55-212025 win-loss record v top 10: 1-82025 titles: 1 – WashingtonATP Finals record: 0-3 (24 Gp)Recent form: QF Paris, SF Vienna, QF Shanghai, SF BeijingRecord v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 0-4; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 0-1; 2025: 0-2
Djokovic – overall: 1-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 0-1
Fritz – overall: 6-5; indoor hard: 2-2; all hard: 5-4; 2025: 0-0

De Minaur struggled in this company 12 months ago and a repeat would be no surprise. You only have to look at his record against the top 10 to see why – one win in his last 16 such matches and that coming against an ailing Alex Zverev at the Laver Cup, an event it’s fair to say might not always produce the same level of focus as this one. Does at least hold a winning record against Fritz but the Aussie seems highly unlikely to be winning his first indoor title this week. He’s 40/1 for a reason.

Lorenzo Musetti (REPLACES DJOKOVIC IN GROUP)

Best odds – Title: 66/1; Group: TBC Race position: 9th (at time of writing)2025 win-loss record: 44-19 (pre-Athens final)2025 win-loss record v top 10: 5-7 (pre-Athens final)2025 titles: 0ATP Finals record: DebutRecent form: F (at time of writing) Athens, L32 Paris, SF Vienna, QF Brussels, L16 Shanghai, QF Beijing, RU ChengduRecord v group opponents:
Sinner – overall: 0-3; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 0-2; 2025: 0-1
Zverev – overall: 3-2; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 1-1
Shelton – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 0-1

Has been busting a gut to qualify, playing every week since the start of the Asian swing. If he qualifies, it will reap financial dividends but it’s hard to see glory coming Musetti’s way. For a start, he’ll surely have some fatigue issues to deal with, not to mention adapting having been in Athens on Saturday evening. Conditions may also be against him rather – it’s likely be a bit on the fast side for the Italian’s liking and home support can only carry you so far. Still, Musetti does hold a winning record against both Zverev and Shelton, and that duo could be vulnerable.

BJORN BORG GROUP

Jannik Sinner

Best odds – Title: 4/6; Group: TBC Race position: 2nd2025 win-loss record: 53-62025 win-loss record v top 10: 14-42025 titles: 5 – Wimbledon, Australian Open, Paris, Vienna, BeijingATP Finals record: 10-2 (24 W, 23 RU, 21 Gp – alt)Recent form: W Paris, W Vienna, L32 Shanghai, W BeijingRecord v group opponents:
Zverev – overall: 5-4; indoor hard: 2-1; all hard: 4-3; 2025: 3-0
Shelton – overall: 7-1; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 5-1; 2025: 3-0
Auger-Aliassime – overall: 3-2; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 3-1; 2025: 3-0
Musetti – overall: 3-0; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 2-0; 2025: 1-0

The defending champion and a winner already in Paris and Vienna during the current indoor swing, Sinner is surely the one they all have to beat in Turin. No-one could really touch him in Paris, where he didn’t lose a set, and even if conditions are a bit slower than they were here last year (organisers often try to tie Paris and Turin together), Sinner is unlikely to be troubled. All four of his top-10 losses this year have come against world number one rival Alcaraz but Sinner looks better equipped in that match-up indoors, where he has now won his last 26 matches.

Alex Zverev

Best odds – Title: 20/1; Group: TBCRace position: 3rd2025 win-loss record: 54-232025 win-loss record v top 10: 3-92025 titles: 1 – MunichATP Finals record: 17-10 (24 SF, 23 Gp, 21 W, 20 Gp, 19 SF, 18 W, 17 Gp)Recent form: SF Paris, RU Vienna, L32 Shanghai, QF BeijingRecord v group opponents:
Sinner – overall: 4-5; indoor hard: 1-2; all hard: 3-4; 2025: 0-3
Shelton – overall: 4-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-0; 2025: 2-0
Auger-Aliassime – overall: 6-3; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 4-2; 2025: 0-1
Musetti – overall: 2-3; indoor hard: 1-1; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 1-1

Zverev was the champion when this tournament first moved to Turin in 2021 and also won it when it was held in London. However, his chance of completing a hat-trick suffered a setback in Paris last week when he hurt his ankle and was subsequently battered in the semi-finals by Sinner. He duly went back to Germany for medical advice but was soon back practising in Turin and signs have been encouraging that’s he’s fine. Zverev has the game to go well in these conditions – his serve is strong and the backhand one of the best in the sport – but last weekend is a little bit of a concern for his potential backers.

Ben Shelton

Best odds – Title: 25/1; Group: TBC Race position: 5th2025 win-loss record: 40-212025 win-loss record v top 10: 2-72025 titles: 1 – TorontoATP Finals record: DebutRecent form: QF Paris, L16 Basel, L64 ShanghaiRecord v group opponents:
Sinner – overall: 1-7; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 1-5; 2025: 0-3
Zverev – overall: 0-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-2; 2025: 0-2
Auger-Aliassime – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0
Musetti – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2025: 1-0

The big-serving Shelton has undoubtedly improved his ground game in 2025 but it still seems unlikely to be enough for him to challenge in a field of this quality. His only top-10 wins this season both came in Toronto, where he claimed the biggest title of his career, but six of his seven losses in such company were in straight sets and he has an awful record against both Sinner and Zverev. Recent form hardly suggests he’s ready to contend in Turin either.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (QUALIFIED ON SATURDAY)

Best odds – Title: 33/1; Group: TBCRace position: 8th (at time of writing)2025 win-loss record: 48-222025 win-loss record v top 10: 5-52025 titles: 3 – Brussels, Montpellier, AdelaideATP Finals record: 1-2 (22 Gp)Recent form: RU Paris, QF Basel, W Brussels, QF ShanghaiRecord v group opponents:
Sinner – overall: 2-3; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 1-3; 2025: 0-3
Zverev – overall: 3-6; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 2-4; 2025: 1-0
Shelton – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-0

At time of writing, the final place in this group had yet to be determined. Auger-Aliassime took the risky decision not to play in the final week of the Race to Turin, leaving the door ajar for Lorenzo Musetti, who will claim the berth if he wins the title in Athens. If the gamble pays off, FAA will be well rested and should be in good shape to contend. He’s been impressive in recent months and would head to Turin having won 22 of his last 27 matches. Three of the losses have come at the hands of Sinner. The Canadian has long loved playing indoors – his recent Brussels success means seven of his eight ATP titles have come with a roof over his head. He’s been serving particularly well so his late run might just reap rewards.

VERDICT

We’ve seen throughout 2025 that Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have quite a gap between themselves and the rest of the ATP Tour.

They scooped all four Grand Slam titles and the likelihood is that the duopoly will continue by adding the ATP Tour’s jewel in the crown.

However, it is Sinner who looks the champion in waiting, although a best price of 4/6 doesn’t appeal enough. I was ready to play at around even money but those initial quotes have been snapped up.

Sinner has now won 26 matches in a row indoors, capturing the Paris and Vienna titles in recent weeks. The Italian looked untouchable in the French capital, where he didn’t lose a set.

Admittedly, Alcaraz is a name missing from Sinner’s indoor ‘vanquished’ list but this has never been the Spaniard’s time of year.

He’s had long-running struggles indoors with the lower bounce, while it’s usually played pretty quick here in Turin where he’s won only three of his seven matches and never made the final.

I know Alcaraz has held the Indian sign over Sinner for some time now – he’s won seven of their last eight tour-level matches – but that run doesn’t take into account Sinner’s two victories at the 6 Kings Slam, both of which were indoors. I believe Sinner will triumph if they meet in the knockout stages here.

It’s far from certain they do meet though and, in the hunt for value, I feel Alcaraz is worth taking on in some shape or form.

We’re getting a third of the odds for a place in the final, so perhaps that’s an angle to attack.

However, preference is to oppose Alcaraz in the group betting, given he’s so short – some firms have him just 2/9 to win it.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC holds claims here, even though at time of writing he’s not a definite runner – he’s said he’ll make a final decision about Turin after Saturday’s final in Athens. Clearly, I’m expecting him to play.

OK, he’s fallen short against the Alcaraz/Sinner juggernaut at the last three Grand Slams, although he did upset the former at the Australian Open.

Physical battles, especially in best-of-five tennis, have been an issue for the Serb but it was interesting to hear him believing that he has a better chance of dethroning the top two away from the Slams when it’s best-of-three sets, as is the case this week.

Djokovic has won in Turin on his last two visits and while many would say his ideal venue at which to take on Alcaraz would be Melbourne Park, I’d be inclined to say here.

Keeping things very much in the present, Djokovic should still have something left in his 38-year-old legs after a light 2025 schedule, whereas Alcaraz arrives here having played 75 matches this season.

Admittedly, he’s not played much in recent weeks but that’s partly due to his error-strewn effort against Cam Norrie in Paris. Again, we are back to his indoor struggles.

In contrast, Djokovic has always loved playing indoors and he’s shown that again in Athens in recent days. His serve looked in good working order in Greece and while the level of opposition rises here, it’s worth noting that he’s beaten all three of his group opponents in 2025, as well as potential knockout foe Zverev.

Significantly, he’s won all 11 matches with Fritz, as well as three out of four against De Minaur.

Odds of 19/2 about Djokovic winning this group look big to me and worth a try.

Looking at potential bets once the field is finalised and more markets opened, Felix Auger-Aliassime may be able to have a say in the Bjorn Borg Group, if he qualifies.

He’s been in Turin practising for days so will be ready to go and he’s been in fine form of late, especially indoors, where he’s won in Brussels and made the Paris final in the last month.

Neither Shelton nor Zverev arrives at his best level and who finishes runner-up behind Sinner in the pool looks up for grabs.

I’ll keep an eye out for any ‘to qualify’ prices as I can see FAA being chalked up as the outsider of four in this. If so, the Canadian may well be worth a bet.

Posted at 1400 GMT on 08/11/25

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.